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daysbefore the first round
18 Apr 2027
FIRST-ROUND POLL WAVE
Cluster17
Published results from Cluster17 for fieldwork conducted from 19 October 2026 to 22 October 2026. Scenarios are kept separate to preserve the exact composition of the ballots tested.
POLLSTER
Cluster17
FIELDWORK
19–22 October 2026
SAMPLE
n=3,000
SCENARIOS
3
CANDIDATES TESTED
13
NO POLLING AVERAGESNO FORECASTNO VOTING ADVICE
SAME POLL · DIFFERENT BALLOTSVARIATION ACROSS PUBLISHED SCENARIOS
OPEN
SAME POLL · DIFFERENT BALLOTS
VARIATION ACROSS PUBLISHED SCENARIOS
Nathalie Arthaud · TESTED IN 3 SCENARIOS0.5 %–0.5 % · Δ 0 pts
Jean-Luc Mélenchon · TESTED IN 3 SCENARIOS18.5 %–19.5 % · Δ 1 pts
Fabien Roussel · TESTED IN 3 SCENARIOS2 %–2 % · Δ 0 pts
Marine Tondelier · TESTED IN 3 SCENARIOS2 %–2.5 % · Δ 0.5 pts
Raphaël Glucksmann · TESTED IN 2 SCENARIOS13 %–14 % · Δ 1 pts
Bruno Retailleau · TESTED IN 3 SCENARIOS7 %–10 % · Δ 3 pts
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan · TESTED IN 3 SCENARIOS3 %–3.5 % · Δ 0.5 pts
Marine Le Pen · TESTED IN 3 SCENARIOS30.5 %–33 % · Δ 2.5 pts
Éric Zemmour · TESTED IN 3 SCENARIOS3.5 %–4 % · Δ 0.5 pts
Édouard Philippe · TESTED IN 2 SCENARIOS16 %–17 % · Δ 1 pts
PUBLISHED RESULTS
WAVE SCENARIOS
3 SCENARIOS
SCENARIO 1COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Gabriel Attal, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
SCENARIO 1COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Gabriel Attal, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 0.5 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 19.5 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 2 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 2 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 14 % |
| Gabriel Attal | 12 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 10 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 3.5 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 32.5 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 4 % |
Cluster17 · H2 (PDF p. 9)EVENT ID: 26e5f0ab3df1861400351a6794f56ca2e3b51099bd12941866aaae7d23d56fa6PUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 2COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
SCENARIO 2COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 0.5 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 18.5 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 2 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 2 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 13 % |
| Édouard Philippe | 16 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 8 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 3 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 33 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 4 % |
Cluster 17 · H1 (PDF p. 5)EVENT ID: 2b452c95a3681f12d01f1d1524977e951d13da68ab124fb6d83db16ebfddcea6PUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 3COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, François Hollande, Édouard Philippe, David Lisnard, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
SCENARIO 3COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, François Hollande, Édouard Philippe, David Lisnard, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 0.5 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 19.5 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 2 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 2.5 % |
| François Hollande | 6.5 % |
| Édouard Philippe | 17 % |
| David Lisnard | 8 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 7 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 3 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 30.5 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 3.5 % |
Cluster 17 · H3 (PDF p. 13)EVENT ID: 335645e494e1d3665674719bd7406dc07f7f8f6fe960bba8cd2f0a2b468e773dPUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗