—
daysbefore the first round
18 Apr 2027
FIRST-ROUND POLL WAVE
Elabe
Published results from Elabe for fieldwork conducted from 25 March 2026 to 27 March 2026. Scenarios are kept separate to preserve the exact composition of the ballots tested.
POLLSTER
Elabe
FIELDWORK
25–27 March 2026
SAMPLE
n=1,504
SCENARIOS
7
CANDIDATES TESTED
19
NO POLLING AVERAGESNO FORECASTNO VOTING ADVICE
SAME POLL · DIFFERENT BALLOTSVARIATION ACROSS PUBLISHED SCENARIOS
OPEN
SAME POLL · DIFFERENT BALLOTS
VARIATION ACROSS PUBLISHED SCENARIOS
Nathalie Arthaud · TESTED IN 7 SCENARIOS0.5 %–1 % · Δ 0.5 pts
Fabien Roussel · TESTED IN 7 SCENARIOS2.5 %–4 % · Δ 1.5 pts
Jean-Luc Mélenchon · TESTED IN 7 SCENARIOS10.5 %–13 % · Δ 2.5 pts
Raphaël Glucksmann · TESTED IN 5 SCENARIOS8.5 %–12.5 % · Δ 4 pts
Dominique de Villepin · TESTED IN 7 SCENARIOS2.5 %–6 % · Δ 3.5 pts
Bruno Retailleau · TESTED IN 6 SCENARIOS7 %–10 % · Δ 3 pts
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan · TESTED IN 7 SCENARIOS2.5 %–3 % · Δ 0.5 pts
Jordan Bardella · TESTED IN 4 SCENARIOS35 %–38.5 % · Δ 3.5 pts
Éric Zemmour · TESTED IN 4 SCENARIOS3 %–3.5 % · Δ 0.5 pts
Marine Tondelier · TESTED IN 6 SCENARIOS4 %–5 % · Δ 1 pts
Édouard Philippe · TESTED IN 4 SCENARIOS20.5 %–25.5 % · Δ 5 pts
Sarah Knafo · TESTED IN 3 SCENARIOS3.5 %–5 % · Δ 1.5 pts
Marine Le Pen · TESTED IN 3 SCENARIOS31.5 %–34 % · Δ 2.5 pts
PUBLISHED RESULTS
WAVE SCENARIOS
7 SCENARIOS
SCENARIO 1COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Fabien Roussel, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, François Ruffin, Raphaël Glucksmann, Sébastien Lecornu, Dominique de Villepin, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Jordan Bardella, Éric Zemmour
SCENARIO 1COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Fabien Roussel, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, François Ruffin, Raphaël Glucksmann, Sébastien Lecornu, Dominique de Villepin, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Jordan Bardella, Éric Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 1 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 3 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 11 % |
| François Ruffin | 8 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 12 % |
| Sébastien Lecornu | 6.5 % |
| Dominique de Villepin | 5.5 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 9.5 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 2.5 % |
| Jordan Bardella | 37.5 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 3.5 % |
EVENT ID: 493b9276028a58b93fb7d71cac434a3966c7731a3a030104809b5f500d95ca8fPUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 2COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Fabien Roussel, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Marine Tondelier, Olivier Faure, Édouard Philippe, Dominique de Villepin, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Jordan Bardella, Sarah Knafo
SCENARIO 2COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Fabien Roussel, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Marine Tondelier, Olivier Faure, Édouard Philippe, Dominique de Villepin, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Jordan Bardella, Sarah Knafo
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 1 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 4 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 12 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 4.5 % |
| Olivier Faure | 4.5 % |
| Édouard Philippe | 25.5 % |
| Dominique de Villepin | 3 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 2.5 % |
| Jordan Bardella | 38 % |
| Sarah Knafo | 5 % |
EVENT ID: d5c47198c2c2e5ec548bc28ec5532042dccceb072c075ce612a18aa5ba0fbcd2PUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 3COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Bruno Retailleau, Dominique de Villepin, Édouard Philippe, Éric Zemmour, Fabien Roussel, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Marine Le Pen, Marine Tondelier, Nathalie Arthaud, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Raphaël Glucksmann
SCENARIO 3COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Bruno Retailleau, Dominique de Villepin, Édouard Philippe, Éric Zemmour, Fabien Roussel, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Marine Le Pen, Marine Tondelier, Nathalie Arthaud, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Raphaël Glucksmann
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Bruno Retailleau | 8.5 % |
| Dominique de Villepin | 2.5 % |
| Édouard Philippe | 22 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 3.5 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 3.5 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 11.5 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 31.5 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 5 % |
| Nathalie Arthaud | 0.5 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 3 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 8.5 % |
EVENT ID: 2ec816707ce8f698aa63613088493fc26643acee1aad899eeb062aaa1fe04305PUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 4COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Fabien Roussel, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Édouard Philippe, Dominique de Villepin, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Jordan Bardella, Éric Zemmour
SCENARIO 4COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Fabien Roussel, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Édouard Philippe, Dominique de Villepin, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Jordan Bardella, Éric Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 0.5 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 3 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 10.5 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 4.5 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 10.5 % |
| Édouard Philippe | 20.5 % |
| Dominique de Villepin | 3 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 7 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 2.5 % |
| Jordan Bardella | 35 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 3 % |
EVENT ID: 78a91a9bd58d57ea6699871ac23a564b0979fff49dec5065bf178130f2a9cd2fPUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 5COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Fabien Roussel, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Gabriel Attal, Dominique de Villepin, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Sarah Knafo
SCENARIO 5COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Fabien Roussel, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Gabriel Attal, Dominique de Villepin, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Sarah Knafo
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 1 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 2.5 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 12 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 4 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 12.5 % |
| Gabriel Attal | 11.5 % |
| Dominique de Villepin | 6 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 10 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 2.5 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 34 % |
| Sarah Knafo | 4 % |
EVENT ID: b65136b023bef1019140a8d6480500c318d4c81e98887511c6353ce57bbecbf0PUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 6COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Fabien Roussel, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Marine Tondelier, François Hollande, Édouard Philippe, Dominique de Villepin, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
SCENARIO 6COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Fabien Roussel, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Marine Tondelier, François Hollande, Édouard Philippe, Dominique de Villepin, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 0.5 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 3.5 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 11.5 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 5 % |
| François Hollande | 8.5 % |
| Édouard Philippe | 22 % |
| Dominique de Villepin | 2.5 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 8.5 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 3 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 31.5 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 3.5 % |
EVENT ID: 4ff56a2e7414d260a4339f667956b782da87d7bb6e9a968f390ce09eab1104f0PUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 7COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Fabien Roussel, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Gérald Darmanin, Dominique de Villepin, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Jordan Bardella, Sarah Knafo
SCENARIO 7COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Fabien Roussel, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Gérald Darmanin, Dominique de Villepin, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Jordan Bardella, Sarah Knafo
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 0.5 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 3 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 13 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 5 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 12.5 % |
| Gérald Darmanin | 8 % |
| Dominique de Villepin | 5 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 8.5 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 2.5 % |
| Jordan Bardella | 38.5 % |
| Sarah Knafo | 3.5 % |
EVENT ID: 4395a098d27347deeca3c9031264fe2cc965a6581d256351380833c043cd33a0PUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗