—
daysbefore the first round
18 Apr 2027
FIRST-ROUND POLL WAVE
Elabe
Published results from Elabe for fieldwork conducted from 2 April 2025 to 4 April 2025. Scenarios are kept separate to preserve the exact composition of the ballots tested.
POLLSTER
Elabe
FIELDWORK
2–4 April 2025
SAMPLE
n=1,413
SCENARIOS
9
CANDIDATES TESTED
17
NO POLLING AVERAGESNO FORECASTNO VOTING ADVICE
SAME POLL · DIFFERENT BALLOTSVARIATION ACROSS PUBLISHED SCENARIOS
OPEN
SAME POLL · DIFFERENT BALLOTS
VARIATION ACROSS PUBLISHED SCENARIOS
Bruno Retailleau · TESTED IN 6 SCENARIOS8 %–10 % · Δ 2 pts
Édouard Philippe · TESTED IN 6 SCENARIOS20.5 %–24 % · Δ 3.5 pts
Éric Zemmour · TESTED IN 9 SCENARIOS3.5 %–5 % · Δ 1.5 pts
Fabien Roussel · TESTED IN 9 SCENARIOS4.5 %–6 % · Δ 1.5 pts
François Hollande · TESTED IN 2 SCENARIOS5.5 %–6 % · Δ 0.5 pts
Jean-Luc Mélenchon · TESTED IN 9 SCENARIOS9.5 %–11 % · Δ 1.5 pts
Marine Le Pen · TESTED IN 4 SCENARIOS32 %–36 % · Δ 4 pts
Marine Tondelier · TESTED IN 9 SCENARIOS3.5 %–6 % · Δ 2.5 pts
Nathalie Arthaud · TESTED IN 9 SCENARIOS0.5 %–1.5 % · Δ 1 pts
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan · TESTED IN 9 SCENARIOS2.5 %–4 % · Δ 1.5 pts
Philippe Poutou · TESTED IN 9 SCENARIOS1.5 %–2 % · Δ 0.5 pts
Olivier Faure · TESTED IN 5 SCENARIOS4 %–6 % · Δ 2 pts
Raphaël Glucksmann · TESTED IN 2 SCENARIOS10.5 %–10.5 % · Δ 0 pts
Laurent Wauquiez · TESTED IN 3 SCENARIOS4.5 %–4.5 % · Δ 0 pts
Dominique de Villepin · TESTED IN 2 SCENARIOS2.5 %–5 % · Δ 2.5 pts
Gabriel Attal · TESTED IN 3 SCENARIOS18 %–18 % · Δ 0 pts
Jordan Bardella · TESTED IN 5 SCENARIOS31 %–35.5 % · Δ 4.5 pts
PUBLISHED RESULTS
WAVE SCENARIOS
9 SCENARIOS
SCENARIO 1COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Bruno Retailleau, Édouard Philippe, Éric Zemmour, Fabien Roussel, François Hollande, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Marine Le Pen, Marine Tondelier, Nathalie Arthaud, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Philippe Poutou
SCENARIO 1COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Bruno Retailleau, Édouard Philippe, Éric Zemmour, Fabien Roussel, François Hollande, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Marine Le Pen, Marine Tondelier, Nathalie Arthaud, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Philippe Poutou
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Bruno Retailleau | 8 % |
| Édouard Philippe | 23.5 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 3.5 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 6 % |
| François Hollande | 5.5 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 10 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 32 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 5.5 % |
| Nathalie Arthaud | 1 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 3 % |
| Philippe Poutou | 2 % |
EVENT ID: 99909984c06973ea7e7c8e938bd937cb6b013cd21708ad5740a0682d11162883PUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 2COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Philippe Poutou, Fabien Roussel, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Olivier Faure, Marine Tondelier, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
SCENARIO 2COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Philippe Poutou, Fabien Roussel, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Olivier Faure, Marine Tondelier, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 1 % |
| Philippe Poutou | 2 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 6 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 10 % |
| Olivier Faure | 5.5 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 5.5 % |
| Édouard Philippe | 23.5 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 8 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 3 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 32 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 3.5 % |
EVENT ID: ed60c975a254f3fcc59dad4b636036b0044298c25c24216a58c565fe754163eePUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 3COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Philippe Poutou, Fabien Roussel, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Raphaël Glucksmann, Marine Tondelier, Édouard Philippe, Laurent Wauquiez, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
SCENARIO 3COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Philippe Poutou, Fabien Roussel, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Raphaël Glucksmann, Marine Tondelier, Édouard Philippe, Laurent Wauquiez, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 0.5 % |
| Philippe Poutou | 2 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 5 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 9.5 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 10.5 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 4 % |
| Édouard Philippe | 24 % |
| Laurent Wauquiez | 4.5 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 3 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 33.5 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 3.5 % |
EVENT ID: 83265881e5896818e56a8df6d8e72116dacc6b98d9838dff9f73d44100d771a8PUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 4COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Dominique de Villepin, Éric Zemmour, Fabien Roussel, Gabriel Attal, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Jordan Bardella, Laurent Wauquiez, Marine Tondelier, Nathalie Arthaud, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Olivier Faure, Philippe Poutou
SCENARIO 4COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Dominique de Villepin, Éric Zemmour, Fabien Roussel, Gabriel Attal, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Jordan Bardella, Laurent Wauquiez, Marine Tondelier, Nathalie Arthaud, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Olivier Faure, Philippe Poutou
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Dominique de Villepin | 5 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 5 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 5.5 % |
| Gabriel Attal | 18 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 10.5 % |
| Jordan Bardella | 35.5 % |
| Laurent Wauquiez | 4.5 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 4.5 % |
| Nathalie Arthaud | 1.5 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 4 % |
| Olivier Faure | 4 % |
| Philippe Poutou | 2 % |
EVENT ID: bd7035fd011619529df381eac3c3b37c49ac7894529f1473a8ae6d722ae01903PUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 5COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Arthaud, Poutou, Roussel, Mélenchon, Faure, Tondelier, Philippe, Retailleau, Dupont-Aignan, Bardella, Zemmour
SCENARIO 5COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Arthaud, Poutou, Roussel, Mélenchon, Faure, Tondelier, Philippe, Retailleau, Dupont-Aignan, Bardella, Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Arthaud | 1 % |
| Poutou | 1.5 % |
| Roussel | 5.5 % |
| Mélenchon | 10 % |
| Faure | 6 % |
| Tondelier | 6 % |
| Philippe | 23 % |
| Retailleau | 9 % |
| Dupont-Aignan | 2.5 % |
| Bardella | 31.5 % |
| Zemmour | 4 % |
EVENT ID: 1344f10c9b0ad8a40ab89478ed974b7b37f89756015f70d0f26e04a4fc4b7542PUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 6COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Bruno Retailleau, Édouard Philippe, Éric Zemmour, Fabien Roussel, François Hollande, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Jordan Bardella, Marine Tondelier, Nathalie Arthaud, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Philippe Poutou
SCENARIO 6COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Bruno Retailleau, Édouard Philippe, Éric Zemmour, Fabien Roussel, François Hollande, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Jordan Bardella, Marine Tondelier, Nathalie Arthaud, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Philippe Poutou
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Bruno Retailleau | 9 % |
| Édouard Philippe | 23 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 4 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 5.5 % |
| François Hollande | 6 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 10 % |
| Jordan Bardella | 31.5 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 6 % |
| Nathalie Arthaud | 1 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 2.5 % |
| Philippe Poutou | 1.5 % |
EVENT ID: db086386de728315a5670f40073bfaeaadcfa59816e338dbf9e00eaced307e0bPUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 7COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Arthaud, Poutou, Roussel, Mélenchon, Raphaël Glucksmann, Tondelier, Philippe, de Villepin, Retailleau, Dupont-Aignan, Bardella, Zemmour
SCENARIO 7COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Arthaud, Poutou, Roussel, Mélenchon, Raphaël Glucksmann, Tondelier, Philippe, de Villepin, Retailleau, Dupont-Aignan, Bardella, Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Arthaud | 1 % |
| Poutou | 1.5 % |
| Roussel | 4.5 % |
| Mélenchon | 9.5 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 10.5 % |
| Tondelier | 3.5 % |
| Philippe | 20.5 % |
| de Villepin | 2.5 % |
| Retailleau | 8.5 % |
| Dupont-Aignan | 3 % |
| Bardella | 31 % |
| Zemmour | 4 % |
EVENT ID: 94ac7996f01be2b78b24de892a6172db899ecf7567346e9e868a56e884d3f366PUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 8PARTIAL SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Arthaud, Poutou, Roussel, Mélenchon, Faure, Tondelier, Attal, Wauquiez, Dupont-Aignan, Bardella, Zemmour
SCENARIO 8PARTIAL SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Arthaud, Poutou, Roussel, Mélenchon, Faure, Tondelier, Attal, Wauquiez, Dupont-Aignan, Bardella, Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Arthaud | 1.5 % |
| Poutou | 2 % |
| Roussel | 5.5 % |
| Mélenchon | 10.5 % |
| Faure | 4 % |
| Tondelier | 4.5 % |
| Attal | 18 % |
| Wauquiez | 4.5 % |
| Dupont-Aignan | 4 % |
| Bardella | 35.5 % |
| Zemmour | 5 % |
EVENT ID: e4d6a8f3c0605e230c1922a26a8f76e5f361111b8bdaac3fc823fae92995d81aPUBLISHED TOTAL: 95 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 9COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Philippe Poutou, Fabien Roussel, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Olivier Faure, Marine Tondelier, Gabriel Attal, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
SCENARIO 9COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Philippe Poutou, Fabien Roussel, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Olivier Faure, Marine Tondelier, Gabriel Attal, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 1 % |
| Philippe Poutou | 2 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 5.5 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 11 % |
| Olivier Faure | 4 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 6 % |
| Gabriel Attal | 18 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 10 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 3 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 36 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 3.5 % |
EVENT ID: ccfb71d7bc1789bcf517324cfbd35584d5075b4f68529506b53a524ddc50de48PUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗