—
daysbefore the first round
18 Apr 2027
FIRST-ROUND POLL WAVE
Ifop
Published results from Ifop for fieldwork conducted from 24 September 2025 to 25 September 2025. Scenarios are kept separate to preserve the exact composition of the ballots tested.
POLLSTER
Ifop
FIELDWORK
24–25 September 2025
SAMPLE
n=1,210
SCENARIOS
6
CANDIDATES TESTED
15
NO POLLING AVERAGESNO FORECASTNO VOTING ADVICE
SAME POLL · DIFFERENT BALLOTSVARIATION ACROSS PUBLISHED SCENARIOS
OPEN
SAME POLL · DIFFERENT BALLOTS
VARIATION ACROSS PUBLISHED SCENARIOS
Arthaud · TESTED IN 6 SCENARIOS1 %–2 % · Δ 1 pts
Roussel · TESTED IN 6 SCENARIOS3 %–5 % · Δ 2 pts
Mélenchon · TESTED IN 6 SCENARIOS12 %–13 % · Δ 1 pts
Raphaël Glucksmann · TESTED IN 5 SCENARIOS14 %–16 % · Δ 2 pts
Philippe · TESTED IN 3 SCENARIOS16 %–19 % · Δ 3 pts
de Villepin · TESTED IN 6 SCENARIOS4 %–6 % · Δ 2 pts
Retailleau · TESTED IN 6 SCENARIOS9 %–13 % · Δ 4 pts
Dupont-Aignan · TESTED IN 6 SCENARIOS2 %–3 % · Δ 1 pts
Bardella · TESTED IN 5 SCENARIOS33 %–35 % · Δ 2 pts
Zemmour · TESTED IN 6 SCENARIOS4 %–5 % · Δ 1 pts
PUBLISHED RESULTS
WAVE SCENARIOS
6 SCENARIOS
SCENARIO 1COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Arthaud, Roussel, Mélenchon, Raphaël Glucksmann, Philippe, de Villepin, Retailleau, Dupont-Aignan, Bardella, Zemmour
SCENARIO 1COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Arthaud, Roussel, Mélenchon, Raphaël Glucksmann, Philippe, de Villepin, Retailleau, Dupont-Aignan, Bardella, Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Arthaud | 1 % |
| Roussel | 3.5 % |
| Mélenchon | 12 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 15 % |
| Philippe | 16 % |
| de Villepin | 4 % |
| Retailleau | 9 % |
| Dupont-Aignan | 2 % |
| Bardella | 33 % |
| Zemmour | 4.5 % |
EVENT ID: 57eec51b99e874e1d22279327d2f1287cb83bf862f213b44dfbbc8cf736e2eadPUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 2COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Fabien Roussel, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Raphaël Glucksmann, Édouard Philippe, Dominique de Villepin, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
SCENARIO 2COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Fabien Roussel, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Raphaël Glucksmann, Édouard Philippe, Dominique de Villepin, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 1 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 3 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 12 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 15 % |
| Édouard Philippe | 16 % |
| Dominique de Villepin | 5 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 9 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 2 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 33 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 4 % |
EVENT ID: cc3f9cc8bbbc7185206551474a5dc1b7ea0d838a2913dbca855919def76e5152PUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 3COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Arthaud, Roussel, Mélenchon, Faure, Philippe, de Villepin, Retailleau, Dupont-Aignan, Bardella, Zemmour
SCENARIO 3COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Arthaud, Roussel, Mélenchon, Faure, Philippe, de Villepin, Retailleau, Dupont-Aignan, Bardella, Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Arthaud | 1 % |
| Roussel | 5 % |
| Mélenchon | 13 % |
| Faure | 7 % |
| Philippe | 19 % |
| de Villepin | 4.5 % |
| Retailleau | 10 % |
| Dupont-Aignan | 2 % |
| Bardella | 34 % |
| Zemmour | 4.5 % |
EVENT ID: acd6d911d1ec9937bbc1610a7395f39ba2324db2ec80efe07e99881c8462196cPUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 4COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Arthaud, Roussel, Mélenchon, Raphaël Glucksmann, Bayrou, de Villepin, Retailleau, Dupont-Aignan, Bardella, Zemmour
SCENARIO 4COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Arthaud, Roussel, Mélenchon, Raphaël Glucksmann, Bayrou, de Villepin, Retailleau, Dupont-Aignan, Bardella, Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Arthaud | 2 % |
| Roussel | 4 % |
| Mélenchon | 13 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 16 % |
| Bayrou | 3 % |
| de Villepin | 6 % |
| Retailleau | 13 % |
| Dupont-Aignan | 3 % |
| Bardella | 35 % |
| Zemmour | 5 % |
EVENT ID: b6eeccb18949353aa1d88392cfa4495d093a6065b406a49c81a37521ddb5901dPUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 5COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Arthaud, Roussel, Mélenchon, Raphaël Glucksmann, Darmanin, de Villepin, Retailleau, Dupont-Aignan, Bardella, Zemmour
SCENARIO 5COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Arthaud, Roussel, Mélenchon, Raphaël Glucksmann, Darmanin, de Villepin, Retailleau, Dupont-Aignan, Bardella, Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Arthaud | 1 % |
| Roussel | 4 % |
| Mélenchon | 13 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 16 % |
| Darmanin | 7 % |
| de Villepin | 5 % |
| Retailleau | 13 % |
| Dupont-Aignan | 2 % |
| Bardella | 35 % |
| Zemmour | 4 % |
EVENT ID: b35f5823330e629e2699883c215c681a64fb47f4c695dfdf2144fe57e685a397PUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 6COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Arthaud, Roussel, Mélenchon, Raphaël Glucksmann, Attal, de Villepin, Retailleau, Dupont-Aignan, Bardella, Zemmour
SCENARIO 6COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Arthaud, Roussel, Mélenchon, Raphaël Glucksmann, Attal, de Villepin, Retailleau, Dupont-Aignan, Bardella, Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Arthaud | 1.5 % |
| Roussel | 4 % |
| Mélenchon | 13 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 14 % |
| Attal | 10 % |
| de Villepin | 4 % |
| Retailleau | 12 % |
| Dupont-Aignan | 2.5 % |
| Bardella | 34 % |
| Zemmour | 5 % |
EVENT ID: e4a8e0a2e2800090b17690d68bd1fb934d0f7053997608337644a3bda76cf7d4PUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗