—
daysbefore the first round
18 Apr 2027
FIRST-ROUND POLL WAVE
Cluster17
Published results from Cluster17 for fieldwork conducted from 30 September 2025 to 1 October 2025. Scenarios are kept separate to preserve the exact composition of the ballots tested.
POLLSTER
Cluster17
FIELDWORK
30 Sep–1 Oct 2025
SAMPLE
n=1,534
SCENARIOS
4
CANDIDATES TESTED
13
NO POLLING AVERAGESNO FORECASTNO VOTING ADVICE
SAME POLL · DIFFERENT BALLOTSVARIATION ACROSS PUBLISHED SCENARIOS
OPEN
SAME POLL · DIFFERENT BALLOTS
VARIATION ACROSS PUBLISHED SCENARIOS
Nathalie Arthaud · TESTED IN 4 SCENARIOS1 %–1.5 % · Δ 0.5 pts
Fabien Roussel · TESTED IN 4 SCENARIOS3 %–4 % · Δ 1 pts
Jean-Luc Mélenchon · TESTED IN 4 SCENARIOS14 %–15 % · Δ 1 pts
Raphaël Glucksmann · TESTED IN 2 SCENARIOS15 %–15 % · Δ 0 pts
Bruno Retailleau · TESTED IN 4 SCENARIOS12 %–14 % · Δ 2 pts
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan · TESTED IN 4 SCENARIOS3.5 %–4.5 % · Δ 1 pts
Éric Zemmour · TESTED IN 4 SCENARIOS5.5 %–5.5 % · Δ 0 pts
Philippe · TESTED IN 3 SCENARIOS15 %–19.5 % · Δ 4.5 pts
Bardella · TESTED IN 3 SCENARIOS30 %–31 % · Δ 1 pts
PUBLISHED RESULTS
WAVE SCENARIOS
4 SCENARIOS
SCENARIO 1COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Fabien Roussel, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Raphaël Glucksmann, Gabriel Attal, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
SCENARIO 1COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Fabien Roussel, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Raphaël Glucksmann, Gabriel Attal, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 1.5 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 3 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 15 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 15 % |
| Gabriel Attal | 12 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 14 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 3.5 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 30.5 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 5.5 % |
EVENT ID: 90039b4d15ff208ea0c71c3e351ddffc87cfd1aba3980ff48d193f3c85316763PUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 2COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Arthaud, Roussel, Mélenchon, Tondelier, Philippe, Retailleau, Dupont-Aignan, Bardella, Zemmour
SCENARIO 2COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Arthaud, Roussel, Mélenchon, Tondelier, Philippe, Retailleau, Dupont-Aignan, Bardella, Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Arthaud | 1 % |
| Roussel | 4 % |
| Mélenchon | 15 % |
| Tondelier | 7.5 % |
| Philippe | 19.5 % |
| Retailleau | 12.5 % |
| Dupont-Aignan | 4 % |
| Bardella | 31 % |
| Zemmour | 5.5 % |
EVENT ID: 035e82b69d7b2e548034706a79901084561ce25ce2d0e96a096c7771559e1c6fPUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 3COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Arthaud, Roussel, Mélenchon, Raphaël Glucksmann, Philippe, Retailleau, Dupont-Aignan, Bardella, Zemmour
SCENARIO 3COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Arthaud, Roussel, Mélenchon, Raphaël Glucksmann, Philippe, Retailleau, Dupont-Aignan, Bardella, Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Arthaud | 1 % |
| Roussel | 3 % |
| Mélenchon | 15 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 15 % |
| Philippe | 15 % |
| Retailleau | 12 % |
| Dupont-Aignan | 3.5 % |
| Bardella | 30 % |
| Zemmour | 5.5 % |
EVENT ID: 6afec981aad5ed221a0d0551a2025356565ceb33e186165fc15fc477b2e2790cPUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 4COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Arthaud, Roussel, Mélenchon, Faure, Philippe, Retailleau, Dupont-Aignan, Bardella, Zemmour
SCENARIO 4COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Arthaud, Roussel, Mélenchon, Faure, Philippe, Retailleau, Dupont-Aignan, Bardella, Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Arthaud | 1 % |
| Roussel | 4 % |
| Mélenchon | 14 % |
| Faure | 8 % |
| Philippe | 19.5 % |
| Retailleau | 13 % |
| Dupont-Aignan | 4.5 % |
| Bardella | 30 % |
| Zemmour | 5.5 % |
EVENT ID: c18d821dae33e57a7a8c53a6e59e18718bcce46e09db80c345b37f043e09bc04PUBLISHED TOTAL: 99.5 %SOURCE ↗