—
daysbefore the first round
18 Apr 2027
FIRST-ROUND POLL WAVE
Elabe
Published results from Elabe for fieldwork conducted from 30 October 2025 to 31 October 2025. Scenarios are kept separate to preserve the exact composition of the ballots tested.
POLLSTER
Elabe
FIELDWORK
30–31 October 2025
SAMPLE
n=1,501
SCENARIOS
5
CANDIDATES TESTED
20
NO POLLING AVERAGESNO FORECASTNO VOTING ADVICE
SAME POLL · DIFFERENT BALLOTSVARIATION ACROSS PUBLISHED SCENARIOS
OPEN
SAME POLL · DIFFERENT BALLOTS
VARIATION ACROSS PUBLISHED SCENARIOS
Arthaud · TESTED IN 5 SCENARIOS1 %–1.5 % · Δ 0.5 pts
Roussel · TESTED IN 5 SCENARIOS3 %–4.5 % · Δ 1.5 pts
Mélenchon · TESTED IN 5 SCENARIOS11.5 %–13 % · Δ 1.5 pts
Raphaël Glucksmann · TESTED IN 3 SCENARIOS11 %–13 % · Δ 2 pts
Tondelier · TESTED IN 5 SCENARIOS4.5 %–5.5 % · Δ 1 pts
Philippe · TESTED IN 3 SCENARIOS15.5 %–19.5 % · Δ 4 pts
de Villepin · TESTED IN 5 SCENARIOS3 %–5 % · Δ 2 pts
Retailleau · TESTED IN 3 SCENARIOS8 %–8 % · Δ 0 pts
Dupont-Aignan · TESTED IN 5 SCENARIOS2 %–2.5 % · Δ 0.5 pts
Bardella · TESTED IN 4 SCENARIOS35 %–37.5 % · Δ 2.5 pts
Zemmour · TESTED IN 2 SCENARIOS4.5 %–6 % · Δ 1.5 pts
Knafo · TESTED IN 2 SCENARIOS6 %–6.5 % · Δ 0.5 pts
PUBLISHED RESULTS
WAVE SCENARIOS
5 SCENARIOS
SCENARIO 1COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Arthaud, Roussel, Mélenchon, Raphaël Glucksmann, Tondelier, Philippe, de Villepin, Retailleau, Dupont-Aignan, Bardella, Zemmour
SCENARIO 1COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Arthaud, Roussel, Mélenchon, Raphaël Glucksmann, Tondelier, Philippe, de Villepin, Retailleau, Dupont-Aignan, Bardella, Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Arthaud | 1 % |
| Roussel | 3 % |
| Mélenchon | 12.5 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 11 % |
| Tondelier | 4.5 % |
| Philippe | 15.5 % |
| de Villepin | 3 % |
| Retailleau | 8 % |
| Dupont-Aignan | 2 % |
| Bardella | 35 % |
| Zemmour | 4.5 % |
EVENT ID: d894a60874f40ae6591a8fdfa5c63bc03f48595ea220c7e846705d331c9e4ae7PUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 2COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Arthaud, Roussel, Mélenchon, Hollande, Tondelier, Philippe, de Villepin, Bertrand, Dupont-Aignan, Bardella, Zemmour
SCENARIO 2COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Arthaud, Roussel, Mélenchon, Hollande, Tondelier, Philippe, de Villepin, Bertrand, Dupont-Aignan, Bardella, Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Arthaud | 1 % |
| Roussel | 3 % |
| Mélenchon | 12 % |
| Hollande | 6.5 % |
| Tondelier | 5.5 % |
| Philippe | 19 % |
| de Villepin | 4 % |
| Bertrand | 5.5 % |
| Dupont-Aignan | 2.5 % |
| Bardella | 35 % |
| Zemmour | 6 % |
EVENT ID: 875b1a5db3a4d6d4f10158c26bce8459ca0b810b5ddb997d6423e1d9047e25c0PUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 3COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Arthaud, Roussel, Mélenchon, Faure, Tondelier, Philippe, de Villepin, Wauquiez, Dupont-Aignan, Bardella, Knafo
SCENARIO 3COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Arthaud, Roussel, Mélenchon, Faure, Tondelier, Philippe, de Villepin, Wauquiez, Dupont-Aignan, Bardella, Knafo
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Arthaud | 1 % |
| Roussel | 4.5 % |
| Mélenchon | 12.5 % |
| Faure | 5.5 % |
| Tondelier | 5.5 % |
| Philippe | 19.5 % |
| de Villepin | 4 % |
| Wauquiez | 3 % |
| Dupont-Aignan | 2.5 % |
| Bardella | 36.5 % |
| Knafo | 6 % |
EVENT ID: df7b459856094492a4ff8d97ceb023ce49d41df45128c24cc45798ab83e8ce8cPUBLISHED TOTAL: 100.5 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 4COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Fabien Roussel, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Raphaël Glucksmann, Marine Tondelier, Gabriel Attal, Dominique de Villepin, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Sarah Knafo
SCENARIO 4COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Fabien Roussel, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Raphaël Glucksmann, Marine Tondelier, Gabriel Attal, Dominique de Villepin, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Sarah Knafo
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 1.5 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 3 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 11.5 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 12 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 4.5 % |
| Gabriel Attal | 12.5 % |
| Dominique de Villepin | 5 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 8 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 2.5 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 34 % |
| Sarah Knafo | 6.5 % |
EVENT ID: 142c02221ccf01308e047243d9d0503bc61d9a48498bf1349d9d692fc01bc503PUBLISHED TOTAL: 101 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 5COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Arthaud, Roussel, Mélenchon, Raphaël Glucksmann, Tondelier, Darmanin, de Villepin, Retailleau, Dupont-Aignan, Bardella, de Villiers
SCENARIO 5COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Arthaud, Roussel, Mélenchon, Raphaël Glucksmann, Tondelier, Darmanin, de Villepin, Retailleau, Dupont-Aignan, Bardella, de Villiers
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Arthaud | 1.5 % |
| Roussel | 3 % |
| Mélenchon | 13 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 13 % |
| Tondelier | 5 % |
| Darmanin | 7 % |
| de Villepin | 5 % |
| Retailleau | 8 % |
| Dupont-Aignan | 2 % |
| Bardella | 37.5 % |
| de Villiers | 4.5 % |
EVENT ID: e4b8646ebb84bced23361aee7ad18a894f92c493bbb2796262bcff2a95b24da3PUBLISHED TOTAL: 99.5 %SOURCE ↗