—
daysbefore the first round
18 Apr 2027
FIRST-ROUND POLL WAVE
Elabe
Published results from Elabe for fieldwork conducted from 30 October 2025 to 31 October 2025. Scenarios are kept separate to preserve the exact composition of the ballots tested.
POLLSTER
Elabe
FIELDWORK
30–31 October 2025
SAMPLE
n=1,396
SCENARIOS
3
CANDIDATES TESTED
17
NO POLLING AVERAGESNO FORECASTNO VOTING ADVICE
SAME POLL · DIFFERENT BALLOTSVARIATION ACROSS PUBLISHED SCENARIOS
OPEN
SAME POLL · DIFFERENT BALLOTS
VARIATION ACROSS PUBLISHED SCENARIOS
Bruno Retailleau · TESTED IN 2 SCENARIOS8 %–8.5 % · Δ 0.5 pts
Dominique de Villepin · TESTED IN 3 SCENARIOS4 %–5 % · Δ 1 pts
Fabien Roussel · TESTED IN 3 SCENARIOS3 %–4.5 % · Δ 1.5 pts
Jean-Luc Mélenchon · TESTED IN 3 SCENARIOS11.5 %–13 % · Δ 1.5 pts
Jordan Bardella · TESTED IN 2 SCENARIOS36.5 %–37.5 % · Δ 1 pts
Marine Tondelier · TESTED IN 3 SCENARIOS4.5 %–5.5 % · Δ 1 pts
Nathalie Arthaud · TESTED IN 3 SCENARIOS1 %–1.5 % · Δ 0.5 pts
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan · TESTED IN 3 SCENARIOS2 %–2.5 % · Δ 0.5 pts
Raphaël Glucksmann · TESTED IN 2 SCENARIOS12 %–13 % · Δ 1 pts
Sarah Knafo · TESTED IN 2 SCENARIOS6 %–6.5 % · Δ 0.5 pts
PUBLISHED RESULTS
WAVE SCENARIOS
3 SCENARIOS
SCENARIO 1COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Bruno Retailleau, Dominique de Villepin, Fabien Roussel, Gérald Darmanin, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Jordan Bardella, Marine Tondelier, Nathalie Arthaud, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Philippe de Villiers, Raphaël Glucksmann
SCENARIO 1COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Bruno Retailleau, Dominique de Villepin, Fabien Roussel, Gérald Darmanin, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Jordan Bardella, Marine Tondelier, Nathalie Arthaud, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Philippe de Villiers, Raphaël Glucksmann
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Bruno Retailleau | 8.5 % |
| Dominique de Villepin | 5 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 3 % |
| Gérald Darmanin | 7 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 13 % |
| Jordan Bardella | 37.5 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 5 % |
| Nathalie Arthaud | 1.5 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 2 % |
| Philippe de Villiers | 4.5 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 13 % |
EVENT ID: 6872e6ded1c60e18b64440e639147c951b3d939788af99756e8302d77f0ebf7fPUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 2COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Dominique de Villepin, Édouard Philippe, Fabien Roussel, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Jordan Bardella, Laurent Wauquiez, Marine Tondelier, Nathalie Arthaud, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Olivier Faure, Sarah Knafo
SCENARIO 2COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Dominique de Villepin, Édouard Philippe, Fabien Roussel, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Jordan Bardella, Laurent Wauquiez, Marine Tondelier, Nathalie Arthaud, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Olivier Faure, Sarah Knafo
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Dominique de Villepin | 4 % |
| Édouard Philippe | 19.5 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 4.5 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 12.5 % |
| Jordan Bardella | 36.5 % |
| Laurent Wauquiez | 3 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 5.5 % |
| Nathalie Arthaud | 1 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 2 % |
| Olivier Faure | 5.5 % |
| Sarah Knafo | 6 % |
EVENT ID: b2e96ad49d0eef4f6398ada1e16a476d53ed58c4d62b21351ebb662fe231fbf7PUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 3COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Bruno Retailleau, Dominique de Villepin, Fabien Roussel, Gabriel Attal, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Marine Le Pen, Marine Tondelier, Nathalie Arthaud, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Raphaël Glucksmann, Sarah Knafo
SCENARIO 3COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Bruno Retailleau, Dominique de Villepin, Fabien Roussel, Gabriel Attal, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Marine Le Pen, Marine Tondelier, Nathalie Arthaud, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Raphaël Glucksmann, Sarah Knafo
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Bruno Retailleau | 8 % |
| Dominique de Villepin | 4 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 3 % |
| Gabriel Attal | 12.5 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 11.5 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 34 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 4.5 % |
| Nathalie Arthaud | 1.5 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 2.5 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 12 % |
| Sarah Knafo | 6.5 % |
EVENT ID: befd141bf0cd68941cdb6fd3afec2561527a4243964495b22f3b400cf6977d4bPUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗