—
daysbefore the first round
18 Apr 2027
FIRST-ROUND POLL WAVE
Ifop
Published results from Ifop for fieldwork conducted from 26 February 2026 to 27 February 2026. Scenarios are kept separate to preserve the exact composition of the ballots tested.
POLLSTER
Ifop
FIELDWORK
26–27 February 2026
SAMPLE
n=1,393
SCENARIOS
12
CANDIDATES TESTED
18
NO POLLING AVERAGESNO FORECASTNO VOTING ADVICE
SAME POLL · DIFFERENT BALLOTSVARIATION ACROSS PUBLISHED SCENARIOS
OPEN
SAME POLL · DIFFERENT BALLOTS
VARIATION ACROSS PUBLISHED SCENARIOS
Arthaud · TESTED IN 12 SCENARIOS1 %–2 % · Δ 1 pts
Roussel · TESTED IN 12 SCENARIOS2 %–3 % · Δ 1 pts
Mélenchon · TESTED IN 12 SCENARIOS10 %–12 % · Δ 2 pts
Tondelier · TESTED IN 12 SCENARIOS4 %–5 % · Δ 1 pts
Philippe · TESTED IN 6 SCENARIOS16 %–23 % · Δ 7 pts
Retailleau · TESTED IN 11 SCENARIOS10 %–17 % · Δ 7 pts
Dupont-Aignan · TESTED IN 12 SCENARIOS2 %–3.5 % · Δ 1.5 pts
Bardella · TESTED IN 8 SCENARIOS36 %–38 % · Δ 2 pts
Zemmour · TESTED IN 10 SCENARIOS3 %–5 % · Δ 2 pts
Raphaël Glucksmann · TESTED IN 10 SCENARIOS10 %–16 % · Δ 6 pts
de Villepin · TESTED IN 8 SCENARIOS3.5 %–5 % · Δ 1.5 pts
Marine Le Pen · TESTED IN 4 SCENARIOS34 %–35 % · Δ 1 pts
Sarah Knafo · TESTED IN 2 SCENARIOS4 %–4 % · Δ 0 pts
Gabriel Attal · TESTED IN 3 SCENARIOS10 %–11 % · Δ 1 pts
PUBLISHED RESULTS
WAVE SCENARIOS
12 SCENARIOS
SCENARIO 1COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Arthaud, Roussel, Mélenchon, Faure, Tondelier, Philippe, Retailleau, Dupont-Aignan, Bardella, Zemmour
SCENARIO 1COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Arthaud, Roussel, Mélenchon, Faure, Tondelier, Philippe, Retailleau, Dupont-Aignan, Bardella, Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Arthaud | 2 % |
| Roussel | 3 % |
| Mélenchon | 11 % |
| Faure | 5 % |
| Tondelier | 5 % |
| Philippe | 19 % |
| Retailleau | 11 % |
| Dupont-Aignan | 3.5 % |
| Bardella | 36 % |
| Zemmour | 4.5 % |
EVENT ID: 61aa088bc0f2206d54ea524a6104caa0d1a627c79d2f5426fbb7036f48bb4b51PUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 2COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Arthaud, Roussel, Mélenchon, Raphaël Glucksmann, Tondelier, Retailleau, Dupont-Aignan, Bardella, Zemmour
SCENARIO 2COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Arthaud, Roussel, Mélenchon, Raphaël Glucksmann, Tondelier, Retailleau, Dupont-Aignan, Bardella, Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Arthaud | 2 % |
| Roussel | 3 % |
| Mélenchon | 12 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 16 % |
| Tondelier | 5 % |
| Retailleau | 17 % |
| Dupont-Aignan | 3 % |
| Bardella | 38 % |
| Zemmour | 4 % |
EVENT ID: 24d392a63517973c1e0d4d53fe2049d0a8be8282c52770a4754ff9faef88b81dPUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 3COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Arthaud, Roussel, Mélenchon, Raphaël Glucksmann, Tondelier, Darmanin, de Villepin, Retailleau, Dupont-Aignan, Bardella, Zemmour
SCENARIO 3COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Arthaud, Roussel, Mélenchon, Raphaël Glucksmann, Tondelier, Darmanin, de Villepin, Retailleau, Dupont-Aignan, Bardella, Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Arthaud | 1.5 % |
| Roussel | 3 % |
| Mélenchon | 10 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 13 % |
| Tondelier | 4 % |
| Darmanin | 8 % |
| de Villepin | 5 % |
| Retailleau | 13 % |
| Dupont-Aignan | 2.5 % |
| Bardella | 37 % |
| Zemmour | 3 % |
EVENT ID: 9d896d57b8b0ced0967ed350ab973c540b4c522a09647c1f19e6aec26a1fe330PUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 4COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Arthaud, Roussel, Mélenchon, Raphaël Glucksmann, Tondelier, Philippe, de Villepin, Retailleau, Dupont-Aignan, Bardella, Zemmour
SCENARIO 4COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Arthaud, Roussel, Mélenchon, Raphaël Glucksmann, Tondelier, Philippe, de Villepin, Retailleau, Dupont-Aignan, Bardella, Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Arthaud | 1 % |
| Roussel | 2 % |
| Mélenchon | 11 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 10 % |
| Tondelier | 4 % |
| Philippe | 16 % |
| de Villepin | 3.5 % |
| Retailleau | 10 % |
| Dupont-Aignan | 2.5 % |
| Bardella | 36 % |
| Zemmour | 4 % |
EVENT ID: 783b0f1fd5122fb58b9286e05ac0bc7c55337fc28c72ee5359379628618ea2afPUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 5COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Bruno Retailleau, Dominique de Villepin, Édouard Philippe, Éric Zemmour, Fabien Roussel, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Marine Le Pen, Marine Tondelier, Nathalie Arthaud, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Raphaël Glucksmann
SCENARIO 5COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Bruno Retailleau, Dominique de Villepin, Édouard Philippe, Éric Zemmour, Fabien Roussel, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Marine Le Pen, Marine Tondelier, Nathalie Arthaud, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Raphaël Glucksmann
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Bruno Retailleau | 11 % |
| Dominique de Villepin | 5 % |
| Édouard Philippe | 16 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 4 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 2 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 10 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 34 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 4 % |
| Nathalie Arthaud | 1 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 2 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 11 % |
EVENT ID: f6ccd8b126f164e8441b33b48fc720fd57ee3438df71f8b864664b22049c5827PUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 6COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Arthaud, Roussel, Mélenchon, Raphaël Glucksmann, Tondelier, Philippe, Dupont-Aignan, Bardella, Zemmour
SCENARIO 6COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Arthaud, Roussel, Mélenchon, Raphaël Glucksmann, Tondelier, Philippe, Dupont-Aignan, Bardella, Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Arthaud | 2 % |
| Roussel | 2.5 % |
| Mélenchon | 12 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 11 % |
| Tondelier | 4.5 % |
| Philippe | 23 % |
| Dupont-Aignan | 3 % |
| Bardella | 37 % |
| Zemmour | 5 % |
EVENT ID: 49491e1732f7a716ae6c0ce73cd25b80ceaac2d9d766c9d039286f841984e195PUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 7COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Fabien Roussel, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Raphaël Glucksmann, Marine Tondelier, Édouard Philippe, Dominique de Villepin, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Sarah Knafo
SCENARIO 7COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Fabien Roussel, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Raphaël Glucksmann, Marine Tondelier, Édouard Philippe, Dominique de Villepin, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Sarah Knafo
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 1 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 2 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 10 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 11 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 4 % |
| Édouard Philippe | 16 % |
| Dominique de Villepin | 5 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 11 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 2 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 34 % |
| Sarah Knafo | 4 % |
EVENT ID: ba14f1ca15bfc9fe9942657aa22f19846db74f0debe5327e2925874c02f8e24aPUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 8COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Fabien Roussel, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Raphaël Glucksmann, Marine Tondelier, Gabriel Attal, Dominique de Villepin, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Sarah Knafo
SCENARIO 8COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Fabien Roussel, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Raphaël Glucksmann, Marine Tondelier, Gabriel Attal, Dominique de Villepin, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Sarah Knafo
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 2 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 2 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 11 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 12 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 4.5 % |
| Gabriel Attal | 10 % |
| Dominique de Villepin | 4.5 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 12 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 3 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 35 % |
| Sarah Knafo | 4 % |
EVENT ID: 6ccb045a2d891686b8920467388d44a9a51e9e92c92ddcd5b2e4c5c41ae6db30PUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 9COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Arthaud, Roussel, Mélenchon, Raphaël Glucksmann, Tondelier, Attal, de Villepin, Retailleau, Dupont-Aignan, Bardella, Zemmour
SCENARIO 9COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Arthaud, Roussel, Mélenchon, Raphaël Glucksmann, Tondelier, Attal, de Villepin, Retailleau, Dupont-Aignan, Bardella, Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Arthaud | 2 % |
| Roussel | 3 % |
| Mélenchon | 10 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 12 % |
| Tondelier | 4 % |
| Attal | 11 % |
| de Villepin | 4 % |
| Retailleau | 12 % |
| Dupont-Aignan | 2 % |
| Bardella | 36 % |
| Zemmour | 4 % |
EVENT ID: 9c93893cfcd31c09a13a6bb78857b5b736d8de0edcdc968a66f24597246552b3PUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 10COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Arthaud, Roussel, Mélenchon, Hollande, Tondelier, Philippe, Retailleau, Dupont-Aignan, Bardella, Zemmour
SCENARIO 10COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Arthaud, Roussel, Mélenchon, Hollande, Tondelier, Philippe, Retailleau, Dupont-Aignan, Bardella, Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Arthaud | 2 % |
| Roussel | 3 % |
| Mélenchon | 11 % |
| Hollande | 8 % |
| Tondelier | 5 % |
| Philippe | 18 % |
| Retailleau | 11 % |
| Dupont-Aignan | 2 % |
| Bardella | 36 % |
| Zemmour | 4 % |
EVENT ID: 81893244742b87dbd4aedcc0ed3bd8f58ab2f4eff72a11e93e9e8c8718044a60PUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 11COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Bruno Retailleau, Dominique de Villepin, Éric Zemmour, Fabien Roussel, Gabriel Attal, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Marine Le Pen, Marine Tondelier, Nathalie Arthaud, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Raphaël Glucksmann
SCENARIO 11COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Bruno Retailleau, Dominique de Villepin, Éric Zemmour, Fabien Roussel, Gabriel Attal, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Marine Le Pen, Marine Tondelier, Nathalie Arthaud, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Raphaël Glucksmann
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Bruno Retailleau | 12 % |
| Dominique de Villepin | 4.5 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 4 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 2 % |
| Gabriel Attal | 10 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 11 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 35 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 4.5 % |
| Nathalie Arthaud | 2 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 3 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 12 % |
EVENT ID: 35301eca827da3d11226aea1b3f6d258174b2913873109553d9307e5f28a998fPUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 12COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Arthaud, Roussel, Mélenchon, Raphaël Glucksmann, Tondelier, Lecornu, de Villepin, Retailleau, Dupont-Aignan, Bardella, Zemmour
SCENARIO 12COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Arthaud, Roussel, Mélenchon, Raphaël Glucksmann, Tondelier, Lecornu, de Villepin, Retailleau, Dupont-Aignan, Bardella, Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Arthaud | 2 % |
| Roussel | 3 % |
| Mélenchon | 10 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 13 % |
| Tondelier | 4.5 % |
| Lecornu | 6 % |
| de Villepin | 5 % |
| Retailleau | 13 % |
| Dupont-Aignan | 3 % |
| Bardella | 37 % |
| Zemmour | 3.5 % |
EVENT ID: ebe94af8a99666edb0ab0fa3d955b2dd6f6abfb63f30a0e5bacdf2369b444f84PUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗