—
daysbefore the first round
18 Apr 2027
FIRST-ROUND POLL WAVE
Ipsos
Published results from Ipsos for fieldwork conducted from 27 May 2026 to 28 May 2026. Scenarios are kept separate to preserve the exact composition of the ballots tested.
POLLSTER
Ipsos
FIELDWORK
27–28 May 2026
SAMPLE
n=1,500
SCENARIOS
8
CANDIDATES TESTED
13
NO POLLING AVERAGESNO FORECASTNO VOTING ADVICE
SAME POLL · DIFFERENT BALLOTSVARIATION ACROSS PUBLISHED SCENARIOS
OPEN
SAME POLL · DIFFERENT BALLOTS
VARIATION ACROSS PUBLISHED SCENARIOS
Nathalie Arthaud · TESTED IN 8 SCENARIOS1 %–1 % · Δ 0 pts
Jean-Luc Mélenchon · TESTED IN 8 SCENARIOS13 %–13.5 % · Δ 0.5 pts
Fabien Roussel · TESTED IN 8 SCENARIOS3 %–4 % · Δ 1 pts
Marine Tondelier · TESTED IN 8 SCENARIOS4 %–5 % · Δ 1 pts
François Hollande · TESTED IN 4 SCENARIOS7 %–8 % · Δ 1 pts
Gabriel Attal · TESTED IN 6 SCENARIOS8.5 %–17.5 % · Δ 9 pts
Édouard Philippe · TESTED IN 6 SCENARIOS13 %–19 % · Δ 6 pts
Bruno Retailleau · TESTED IN 8 SCENARIOS7.5 %–10 % · Δ 2.5 pts
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan · TESTED IN 8 SCENARIOS1.5 %–1.5 % · Δ 0 pts
Marine Le Pen · TESTED IN 2 SCENARIOS31 %–32 % · Δ 1 pts
Éric Zemmour · TESTED IN 8 SCENARIOS4 %–4.5 % · Δ 0.5 pts
Raphaël Glucksmann · TESTED IN 4 SCENARIOS11 %–14 % · Δ 3 pts
Jordan Bardella · TESTED IN 6 SCENARIOS33.5 %–36 % · Δ 2.5 pts
PUBLISHED RESULTS
WAVE SCENARIOS
8 SCENARIOS
SCENARIO 1COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, François Hollande, Gabriel Attal, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
SCENARIO 1COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, François Hollande, Gabriel Attal, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 1 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 13.5 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 4 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 4 % |
| François Hollande | 7 % |
| Gabriel Attal | 9.5 % |
| Édouard Philippe | 14.5 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 8.5 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 1.5 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 32 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 4.5 % |
EVENT ID: a18069dd750083a587a4e3d47df0c3fc487bf82ece0088ee9292faf828743024PUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 2COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Gabriel Attal, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Jordan Bardella, Éric Zemmour
SCENARIO 2COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Gabriel Attal, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Jordan Bardella, Éric Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 1 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 13 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 3 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 4 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 14 % |
| Gabriel Attal | 14.5 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 10 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 1.5 % |
| Jordan Bardella | 35 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 4 % |
EVENT ID: 4603e3708d90a8731e4f1cababe21e31663996618c0661d8eed65509f764148cPUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 3COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, François Hollande, Gabriel Attal, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Jordan Bardella, Éric Zemmour
SCENARIO 3COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, François Hollande, Gabriel Attal, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Jordan Bardella, Éric Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 1 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 13.5 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 4 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 4 % |
| François Hollande | 7 % |
| Gabriel Attal | 9.5 % |
| Édouard Philippe | 13.5 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 8 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 1.5 % |
| Jordan Bardella | 34 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 4 % |
EVENT ID: 7a849e85dae9f24d253083c20d95ff238bec733b65ce6ae14a7dae2ea8ec1d95PUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 4COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Gabriel Attal, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Jordan Bardella, Éric Zemmour
SCENARIO 4COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Gabriel Attal, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Jordan Bardella, Éric Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 1 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 13 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 3 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 4 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 11 % |
| Gabriel Attal | 8.5 % |
| Édouard Philippe | 13 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 7.5 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 1.5 % |
| Jordan Bardella | 33.5 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 4 % |
EVENT ID: cbb079d457883f2522564dec390bbbe6ec5502c1cb1f4a42408ab3e6e02dfc82PUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 5COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Gabriel Attal, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
SCENARIO 5COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Gabriel Attal, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 1 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 13 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 3 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 4 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 11 % |
| Gabriel Attal | 8.5 % |
| Édouard Philippe | 14 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 8.5 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 1.5 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 31 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 4.5 % |
EVENT ID: d51b942cb0766d5e605975736abc2d36a56ca6920b455d9c0d65aa68f6291ea8PUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 6COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Jordan Bardella, Éric Zemmour
SCENARIO 6COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Jordan Bardella, Éric Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 1 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 13 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 3 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 4 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 13 % |
| Édouard Philippe | 17.5 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 9 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 1.5 % |
| Jordan Bardella | 34 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 4 % |
EVENT ID: 008f146d5b560a790d1a890b1c454fad0190af7828c9b2eec3baa46e1e1bc4d3PUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 7COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, François Hollande, Gabriel Attal, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Jordan Bardella, Éric Zemmour
SCENARIO 7COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, François Hollande, Gabriel Attal, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Jordan Bardella, Éric Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 1 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 13.5 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 3.5 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 5 % |
| François Hollande | 8 % |
| Gabriel Attal | 17.5 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 10 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 1.5 % |
| Jordan Bardella | 36 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 4 % |
EVENT ID: 4e685f6dbd1c14100db6be430700547aa89743e7c9cbe7a92f29f3a7b2b4f16cPUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 8COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, François Hollande, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Jordan Bardella, Éric Zemmour
SCENARIO 8COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, François Hollande, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Jordan Bardella, Éric Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 1 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 13.5 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 4 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 5 % |
| François Hollande | 7.5 % |
| Édouard Philippe | 19 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 9 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 1.5 % |
| Jordan Bardella | 35.5 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 4 % |
EVENT ID: 2aacd4aeed42b163372e2489f70173d727516388899a00da3927155f6aeea4f7PUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗