—
daysbefore the first round
18 Apr 2027
FIRST-ROUND POLL WAVE
Ifop
Published results from Ifop for fieldwork conducted from 26 May 2026 to 28 May 2026. Scenarios are kept separate to preserve the exact composition of the ballots tested.
POLLSTER
Ifop
FIELDWORK
26–28 May 2026
SAMPLE
n=1,368
SCENARIOS
16
CANDIDATES TESTED
17
NO POLLING AVERAGESNO FORECASTNO VOTING ADVICE
SAME POLL · DIFFERENT BALLOTSVARIATION ACROSS PUBLISHED SCENARIOS
OPEN
SAME POLL · DIFFERENT BALLOTS
VARIATION ACROSS PUBLISHED SCENARIOS
Arthaud · TESTED IN 16 SCENARIOS0.5 %–1.5 % · Δ 1 pts
Roussel · TESTED IN 14 SCENARIOS2.5 %–6 % · Δ 3.5 pts
Mélenchon · TESTED IN 16 SCENARIOS12.5 %–15 % · Δ 2.5 pts
Tondelier · TESTED IN 14 SCENARIOS3.5 %–5 % · Δ 1.5 pts
Philippe · TESTED IN 10 SCENARIOS14 %–22 % · Δ 8 pts
Retailleau · TESTED IN 16 SCENARIOS8 %–11.5 % · Δ 3.5 pts
Dupont-Aignan · TESTED IN 16 SCENARIOS1.5 %–3 % · Δ 1.5 pts
Bardella · TESTED IN 12 SCENARIOS33 %–35 % · Δ 2 pts
Zemmour · TESTED IN 14 SCENARIOS3 %–4 % · Δ 1 pts
Raphaël Glucksmann · TESTED IN 11 SCENARIOS9 %–12 % · Δ 3 pts
Gabriel Attal · TESTED IN 7 SCENARIOS9 %–18.5 % · Δ 9.5 pts
Marine Le Pen · TESTED IN 4 SCENARIOS32 %–33 % · Δ 1 pts
Sarah Knafo · TESTED IN 2 SCENARIOS4 %–4 % · Δ 0 pts
de Villepin · TESTED IN 5 SCENARIOS2 %–3 % · Δ 1 pts
François Ruffin · TESTED IN 2 SCENARIOS3 %–3 % · Δ 0 pts
Hollande · TESTED IN 4 SCENARIOS8 %–11 % · Δ 3 pts
PUBLISHED RESULTS
WAVE SCENARIOS
16 SCENARIOS
SCENARIO 1COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Arthaud, Roussel, Mélenchon, Faure, Tondelier, Philippe, Retailleau, Dupont-Aignan, Bardella, Zemmour
SCENARIO 1COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Arthaud, Roussel, Mélenchon, Faure, Tondelier, Philippe, Retailleau, Dupont-Aignan, Bardella, Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Arthaud | 0.5 % |
| Roussel | 6 % |
| Mélenchon | 13.5 % |
| Faure | 4 % |
| Tondelier | 4 % |
| Philippe | 21 % |
| Retailleau | 10 % |
| Dupont-Aignan | 2.5 % |
| Bardella | 35 % |
| Zemmour | 3.5 % |
EVENT ID: 8138c66f9bf19a6a79321d538af377c36c2f4d5d6ec5e7268ecdf445c994a402PUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 2PARTIAL SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Fabien Roussel, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Raphaël Glucksmann, Marine Tondelier, Gabriel Attal, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Sarah Knafo
SCENARIO 2PARTIAL SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Fabien Roussel, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Raphaël Glucksmann, Marine Tondelier, Gabriel Attal, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Sarah Knafo
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 0.5 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 3 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 13 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 11.5 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 3.5 % |
| Gabriel Attal | 16 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 11.5 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 2 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 32 % |
| Sarah Knafo | 4 % |
EVENT ID: 168d9e356767b2c2a7f95448d20012a9400a0ccad9b7189a5c98a44d6d1a4d09PUBLISHED TOTAL: 97 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 3COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Arthaud, Roussel, Mélenchon, Raphaël Glucksmann, Tondelier, Philippe, de Villepin, Retailleau, Dupont-Aignan, Bardella, Zemmour
SCENARIO 3COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Arthaud, Roussel, Mélenchon, Raphaël Glucksmann, Tondelier, Philippe, de Villepin, Retailleau, Dupont-Aignan, Bardella, Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Arthaud | 0.5 % |
| Roussel | 3.5 % |
| Mélenchon | 13 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 10 % |
| Tondelier | 4 % |
| Philippe | 18 % |
| de Villepin | 2.5 % |
| Retailleau | 9 % |
| Dupont-Aignan | 2 % |
| Bardella | 34 % |
| Zemmour | 3.5 % |
EVENT ID: 6263a6c07340a4a5e34aad905a42f01843d21bb4252808c10d3cfa4eb7a9e81ePUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 4COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Bruno Retailleau, Édouard Philippe, Éric Zemmour, Fabien Roussel, François Ruffin, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Jordan Bardella, Marine Tondelier, Nathalie Arthaud, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Raphaël Glucksmann
SCENARIO 4COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Bruno Retailleau, Édouard Philippe, Éric Zemmour, Fabien Roussel, François Ruffin, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Jordan Bardella, Marine Tondelier, Nathalie Arthaud, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Raphaël Glucksmann
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Bruno Retailleau | 9 % |
| Édouard Philippe | 20 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 3 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 3 % |
| François Ruffin | 3 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 12.5 % |
| Jordan Bardella | 34 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 4 % |
| Nathalie Arthaud | 0.5 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 2 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 9 % |
EVENT ID: ab32068909a86a258c2b6fd4d4c1b6a20e4f043276a378fbc4b38631ead4d4c0PUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 5COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Bruno Retailleau, Dominique de Villepin, Édouard Philippe, Éric Zemmour, Fabien Roussel, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Marine Le Pen, Marine Tondelier, Nathalie Arthaud, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Raphaël Glucksmann
SCENARIO 5COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Bruno Retailleau, Dominique de Villepin, Édouard Philippe, Éric Zemmour, Fabien Roussel, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Marine Le Pen, Marine Tondelier, Nathalie Arthaud, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Raphaël Glucksmann
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Bruno Retailleau | 9 % |
| Dominique de Villepin | 2 % |
| Édouard Philippe | 19 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 4 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 3 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 13 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 33 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 4 % |
| Nathalie Arthaud | 0.5 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 1.5 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 11 % |
EVENT ID: 4c8b955f6a00a9d641e29f4e1c38bf93136a5f735b4085d6ec105a7b6b15cc44PUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 6PARTIAL SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Fabien Roussel, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Raphaël Glucksmann, Marine Tondelier, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Sarah Knafo
SCENARIO 6PARTIAL SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Fabien Roussel, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Raphaël Glucksmann, Marine Tondelier, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Sarah Knafo
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 0.5 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 3 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 13 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 11 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 4 % |
| Édouard Philippe | 19 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 9 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 1.5 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 33 % |
| Sarah Knafo | 4 % |
EVENT ID: a569c34ee1d7faa98397f9ad8f2ab35e53211d7920e7d767dae4321037d1ddabPUBLISHED TOTAL: 98 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 7COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Arthaud, Mélenchon, Raphaël Glucksmann, Philippe, Retailleau, Dupont-Aignan, Bardella, Zemmour
SCENARIO 7COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Arthaud, Mélenchon, Raphaël Glucksmann, Philippe, Retailleau, Dupont-Aignan, Bardella, Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Arthaud | 1 % |
| Mélenchon | 15 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 12 % |
| Philippe | 22 % |
| Retailleau | 10 % |
| Dupont-Aignan | 3 % |
| Bardella | 33 % |
| Zemmour | 4 % |
EVENT ID: eacf9fbd1dd5d88c8ffe7e24a0aab67e3ea1f155f2563e4341fbc8d0224f093ePUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 8COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Bruno Retailleau, Dominique de Villepin, Éric Zemmour, Fabien Roussel, Gabriel Attal, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Jordan Bardella, Marine Tondelier, Nathalie Arthaud, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Raphaël Glucksmann
SCENARIO 8COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Bruno Retailleau, Dominique de Villepin, Éric Zemmour, Fabien Roussel, Gabriel Attal, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Jordan Bardella, Marine Tondelier, Nathalie Arthaud, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Raphaël Glucksmann
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Bruno Retailleau | 10 % |
| Dominique de Villepin | 3 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 3 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 3 % |
| Gabriel Attal | 16 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 13 % |
| Jordan Bardella | 34 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 4 % |
| Nathalie Arthaud | 0.5 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 2.5 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 11 % |
EVENT ID: 479057177d53e4b32b6199eeb86d5052771dbcf1ab7c5781799dfb40b4a2c050PUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 9COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Arthaud, Roussel, Mélenchon, Raphaël Glucksmann, Tondelier, Attal, Philippe, Retailleau, Dupont-Aignan, Bardella, Zemmour
SCENARIO 9COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Arthaud, Roussel, Mélenchon, Raphaël Glucksmann, Tondelier, Attal, Philippe, Retailleau, Dupont-Aignan, Bardella, Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Arthaud | 0.5 % |
| Roussel | 2.5 % |
| Mélenchon | 13 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 9 % |
| Tondelier | 4 % |
| Attal | 9 % |
| Philippe | 14 % |
| Retailleau | 8 % |
| Dupont-Aignan | 2 % |
| Bardella | 34 % |
| Zemmour | 4 % |
EVENT ID: f0dbb0280649aa4356dc40a971ac9223e411b86513e78914644fd8103f22559cPUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 10COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Arthaud, Roussel, Mélenchon, Ruffin, Raphaël Glucksmann, Tondelier, Philippe, Retailleau, Dupont-Aignan, Bardella, Zemmour
SCENARIO 10COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Arthaud, Roussel, Mélenchon, Ruffin, Raphaël Glucksmann, Tondelier, Philippe, Retailleau, Dupont-Aignan, Bardella, Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Arthaud | 0.5 % |
| Roussel | 3 % |
| Mélenchon | 12.5 % |
| Ruffin | 3 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 9 % |
| Tondelier | 4 % |
| Philippe | 20 % |
| Retailleau | 9 % |
| Dupont-Aignan | 2.5 % |
| Bardella | 34 % |
| Zemmour | 3 % |
EVENT ID: bb9b7ed31c592ef690d4973ce4605d214fd3de01983474bd47aca08092c95542PUBLISHED TOTAL: 100.5 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 11COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Arthaud, Roussel, Mélenchon, Hollande, Tondelier, Attal, Retailleau, Dupont-Aignan, Bardella, Zemmour
SCENARIO 11COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Arthaud, Roussel, Mélenchon, Hollande, Tondelier, Attal, Retailleau, Dupont-Aignan, Bardella, Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Arthaud | 1 % |
| Roussel | 3 % |
| Mélenchon | 13.5 % |
| Hollande | 8 % |
| Tondelier | 5 % |
| Attal | 18.5 % |
| Retailleau | 10 % |
| Dupont-Aignan | 2 % |
| Bardella | 35 % |
| Zemmour | 3.5 % |
EVENT ID: 21a7dd77452035af6f10d3bbbdda3bfe47d14b8d8bf20dcd6539659ffd3f18b7PUBLISHED TOTAL: 99.5 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 12COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Arthaud, Mélenchon, Hollande, Philippe, Retailleau, Dupont-Aignan, Bardella, Zemmour
SCENARIO 12COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Arthaud, Mélenchon, Hollande, Philippe, Retailleau, Dupont-Aignan, Bardella, Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Arthaud | 1.5 % |
| Mélenchon | 15 % |
| Hollande | 11 % |
| Philippe | 22 % |
| Retailleau | 10 % |
| Dupont-Aignan | 2.5 % |
| Bardella | 34 % |
| Zemmour | 4 % |
EVENT ID: 15a0fa607f9b94bcc8240d9ff7f815b40a8ccd73a0acc5432078fb8ecaf31bb2PUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 13COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Bruno Retailleau, Éric Zemmour, Fabien Roussel, François Hollande, Gabriel Attal, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Jordan Bardella, Marine Tondelier, Nathalie Arthaud, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan
SCENARIO 13COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Bruno Retailleau, Éric Zemmour, Fabien Roussel, François Hollande, Gabriel Attal, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Jordan Bardella, Marine Tondelier, Nathalie Arthaud, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Bruno Retailleau | 10 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 3.5 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 3.5 % |
| François Hollande | 8 % |
| Gabriel Attal | 18.5 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 13.5 % |
| Jordan Bardella | 35 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 5 % |
| Nathalie Arthaud | 1 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 2 % |
EVENT ID: 18e4596c2dac2d8cc39dc9b6c6c491a32baec276c584b0b0768bc38496b52d44PUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 14COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Arthaud, Roussel, Mélenchon, Raphaël Glucksmann, Tondelier, Attal, de Villepin, Retailleau, Dupont-Aignan, Bardella, Zemmour
SCENARIO 14COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Arthaud, Roussel, Mélenchon, Raphaël Glucksmann, Tondelier, Attal, de Villepin, Retailleau, Dupont-Aignan, Bardella, Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Arthaud | 0.5 % |
| Roussel | 3 % |
| Mélenchon | 13 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 11 % |
| Tondelier | 4 % |
| Attal | 16 % |
| de Villepin | 2.5 % |
| Retailleau | 10 % |
| Dupont-Aignan | 2.5 % |
| Bardella | 34 % |
| Zemmour | 3 % |
EVENT ID: 04b1e2a9ff4ccab63809714530a36f2dc48514b726e9ca901494fa507b08400aPUBLISHED TOTAL: 99.5 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 15COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Arthaud, Roussel, Mélenchon, Hollande, Tondelier, Philippe, Retailleau, Dupont-Aignan, Bardella, Zemmour
SCENARIO 15COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Arthaud, Roussel, Mélenchon, Hollande, Tondelier, Philippe, Retailleau, Dupont-Aignan, Bardella, Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Arthaud | 0.5 % |
| Roussel | 4 % |
| Mélenchon | 14 % |
| Hollande | 8 % |
| Tondelier | 5 % |
| Philippe | 20 % |
| Retailleau | 9 % |
| Dupont-Aignan | 1.5 % |
| Bardella | 34 % |
| Zemmour | 4 % |
EVENT ID: e6099a82e43e258a83b353c9f5c86aa5a7420f59ad39ed8ced28f56f8e47888fPUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 16COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Bruno Retailleau, Dominique de Villepin, Éric Zemmour, Fabien Roussel, Gabriel Attal, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Marine Le Pen, Marine Tondelier, Nathalie Arthaud, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Raphaël Glucksmann
SCENARIO 16COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Bruno Retailleau, Dominique de Villepin, Éric Zemmour, Fabien Roussel, Gabriel Attal, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Marine Le Pen, Marine Tondelier, Nathalie Arthaud, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Raphaël Glucksmann
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Bruno Retailleau | 11.5 % |
| Dominique de Villepin | 3 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 4 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 3 % |
| Gabriel Attal | 16 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 13 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 32 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 3.5 % |
| Nathalie Arthaud | 0.5 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 2 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 11.5 % |
EVENT ID: 87e14c92abc75fc3aa5bc6aa4542aa238454ccd5167fbed90f3805f8b4678444PUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗