—
daysbefore the first round
18 Apr 2027
FIRST-ROUND POLL WAVE
Elabe
Published results from Elabe for fieldwork conducted from 9 July 2026 to 10 July 2026. Scenarios are kept separate to preserve the exact composition of the ballots tested.
POLLSTER
Elabe
FIELDWORK
9–10 July 2026
SAMPLE
n=1,503
SCENARIOS
6
CANDIDATES TESTED
14
NO POLLING AVERAGESNO FORECASTNO VOTING ADVICE
SAME POLL · DIFFERENT BALLOTSVARIATION ACROSS PUBLISHED SCENARIOS
OPEN
SAME POLL · DIFFERENT BALLOTS
VARIATION ACROSS PUBLISHED SCENARIOS
Nathalie Arthaud · TESTED IN 6 SCENARIOS1 %–2 % · Δ 1 pts
Fabien Roussel · TESTED IN 6 SCENARIOS2.5 %–3 % · Δ 0.5 pts
Jean-Luc Mélenchon · TESTED IN 6 SCENARIOS14.5 %–16 % · Δ 1.5 pts
François Ruffin · TESTED IN 2 SCENARIOS6 %–6 % · Δ 0 pts
François Hollande · TESTED IN 3 SCENARIOS8 %–9 % · Δ 1 pts
Édouard Philippe · TESTED IN 4 SCENARIOS14 %–19 % · Δ 5 pts
Bruno Retailleau · TESTED IN 6 SCENARIOS8 %–11 % · Δ 3 pts
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan · TESTED IN 6 SCENARIOS1.5 %–1.5 % · Δ 0 pts
Marine Le Pen · TESTED IN 6 SCENARIOS34 %–35.5 % · Δ 1.5 pts
Éric Zemmour · TESTED IN 6 SCENARIOS2.5 %–3.5 % · Δ 1 pts
Raphaël Glucksmann · TESTED IN 3 SCENARIOS8.5 %–11.5 % · Δ 3 pts
Marine Tondelier · TESTED IN 4 SCENARIOS3.5 %–4 % · Δ 0.5 pts
Dominique de Villepin · TESTED IN 3 SCENARIOS2.5 %–3.5 % · Δ 1 pts
Gabriel Attal · TESTED IN 3 SCENARIOS7.5 %–15.5 % · Δ 8 pts
PUBLISHED RESULTS
WAVE SCENARIOS
6 SCENARIOS
SCENARIO 1COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Fabien Roussel, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, François Ruffin, François Hollande, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
SCENARIO 1COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Fabien Roussel, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, François Ruffin, François Hollande, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 1.5 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 2.5 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 14.5 % |
| François Ruffin | 6 % |
| François Hollande | 9 % |
| Édouard Philippe | 19 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 9 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 1.5 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 35 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 2.5 % |
EVENT ID: 6aa6e4ddfd07736fa8f0137b9154e663d39bd66e0118cc32788933c0ae088ac7PUBLISHED TOTAL: 100.5 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 2COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Fabien Roussel, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Raphaël Glucksmann, Marine Tondelier, Édouard Philippe, Dominique de Villepin, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
SCENARIO 2COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Fabien Roussel, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Raphaël Glucksmann, Marine Tondelier, Édouard Philippe, Dominique de Villepin, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 1 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 2.5 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 16 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 10.5 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 3.5 % |
| Édouard Philippe | 16.5 % |
| Dominique de Villepin | 2.5 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 8 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 1.5 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 35 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 3 % |
EVENT ID: 53f61a8f9714d4eab4afa3fbb130ddff90da7f8b193995ef585db69f64ee5a82PUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 3COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Fabien Roussel, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Raphaël Glucksmann, Marine Tondelier, Gabriel Attal, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
SCENARIO 3COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Fabien Roussel, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Raphaël Glucksmann, Marine Tondelier, Gabriel Attal, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 1 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 2.5 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 14.5 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 8.5 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 4 % |
| Gabriel Attal | 7.5 % |
| Édouard Philippe | 14 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 8.5 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 1.5 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 35 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 3 % |
EVENT ID: 5673bc4e04c10578516b4abfa59b007c26428d192e50a69f408ccc57aa0a2dbfPUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 4COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Fabien Roussel, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, François Hollande, Marine Tondelier, Édouard Philippe, Dominique de Villepin, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
SCENARIO 4COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Fabien Roussel, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, François Hollande, Marine Tondelier, Édouard Philippe, Dominique de Villepin, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 2 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 3 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 15 % |
| François Hollande | 8 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 4 % |
| Édouard Philippe | 18 % |
| Dominique de Villepin | 3 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 8 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 1.5 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 34.5 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 3 % |
EVENT ID: 23257def4547f9cba8fce5b18e5139ba957343b59598b1b929583d20f08b193dPUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 5COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Fabien Roussel, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, François Ruffin, François Hollande, Gabriel Attal, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
SCENARIO 5COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Fabien Roussel, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, François Ruffin, François Hollande, Gabriel Attal, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 1.5 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 2.5 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 15 % |
| François Ruffin | 6 % |
| François Hollande | 8 % |
| Gabriel Attal | 15.5 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 11 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 1.5 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 35.5 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 3.5 % |
EVENT ID: 0e6035931c75d8b8c9bedc7d4245ec3173d1bd090647fd063f24ac7f4fb83283PUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 6COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Fabien Roussel, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Raphaël Glucksmann, Marine Tondelier, Gabriel Attal, Dominique de Villepin, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
SCENARIO 6COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Fabien Roussel, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Raphaël Glucksmann, Marine Tondelier, Gabriel Attal, Dominique de Villepin, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 1.5 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 2.5 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 14.5 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 11.5 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 3.5 % |
| Gabriel Attal | 13.5 % |
| Dominique de Villepin | 3.5 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 11 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 1.5 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 34 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 3.5 % |
EVENT ID: bbda80e337187d4e7bdb24533ee2d5f662959938ca8d7e9faa05e9b7c1baa49aPUBLISHED TOTAL: 100.5 %SOURCE ↗