—
daysbefore the first round
18 Apr 2027
FIRST-ROUND POLL WAVE
Ifop
Published results from Ifop for fieldwork conducted from 24 August 2026 to 25 August 2026. Scenarios are kept separate to preserve the exact composition of the ballots tested.
POLLSTER
Ifop
FIELDWORK
24–25 August 2026
SAMPLE
n=1,598
SCENARIOS
7
CANDIDATES TESTED
13
NO POLLING AVERAGESNO FORECASTNO VOTING ADVICE
SAME POLL · DIFFERENT BALLOTSVARIATION ACROSS PUBLISHED SCENARIOS
OPEN
SAME POLL · DIFFERENT BALLOTS
VARIATION ACROSS PUBLISHED SCENARIOS
Nathalie Arthaud · TESTED IN 7 SCENARIOS0.5 %–1.5 % · Δ 1 pts
Jean-Luc Mélenchon · TESTED IN 7 SCENARIOS16 %–19 % · Δ 3 pts
Fabien Roussel · TESTED IN 4 SCENARIOS3 %–3 % · Δ 0 pts
Marine Tondelier · TESTED IN 4 SCENARIOS3 %–3 % · Δ 0 pts
Raphaël Glucksmann · TESTED IN 6 SCENARIOS11 %–18 % · Δ 7 pts
Gabriel Attal · TESTED IN 3 SCENARIOS8 %–15 % · Δ 7 pts
Bruno Retailleau · TESTED IN 7 SCENARIOS6 %–12 % · Δ 6 pts
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan · TESTED IN 7 SCENARIOS1.5 %–2.5 % · Δ 1 pts
Marine Le Pen · TESTED IN 7 SCENARIOS33 %–35 % · Δ 2 pts
Éric Zemmour · TESTED IN 7 SCENARIOS2.5 %–3.5 % · Δ 1 pts
Édouard Philippe · TESTED IN 4 SCENARIOS14.5 %–21 % · Δ 6.5 pts
PUBLISHED RESULTS
WAVE SCENARIOS
7 SCENARIOS
SCENARIO 1COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Gabriel Attal, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
SCENARIO 1COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Gabriel Attal, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 0.5 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 17 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 3 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 3 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 15 % |
| Gabriel Attal | 14 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 9 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 1.5 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 34 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 3 % |
EVENT ID: bed2677cbae4b104f50a80e33de7da58f5dcef62d4cb20cb34ba7dbeaf57cd76PUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 2COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Bruno Le Maire, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
SCENARIO 2COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Bruno Le Maire, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 1 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 17 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 3 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 3 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 18 % |
| Bruno Le Maire | 6 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 12 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 2 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 35 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 3 % |
EVENT ID: 50d70dee6001288aaf3cf3827f8cbf3611b8f5cb1b10a14da39272e4f1d92deePUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 3COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Raphaël Glucksmann, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
SCENARIO 3COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Raphaël Glucksmann, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 1 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 18 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 15 % |
| Édouard Philippe | 19 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 8 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 2.5 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 33 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 3.5 % |
EVENT ID: f10cddfb79ebff7ca0dd9d6e9afb4ec75cf9d4b97ba3033a0a86147a2a358793PUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 4COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Raphaël Glucksmann, Gabriel Attal, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
SCENARIO 4COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Raphaël Glucksmann, Gabriel Attal, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 1.5 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 18.5 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 17 % |
| Gabriel Attal | 15 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 9 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 2 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 34 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 3 % |
EVENT ID: d099fb9efc87034acc97bc44a5078110b252b5882e02627cc9491d88b3355c07PUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 5COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Gabriel Attal, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
SCENARIO 5COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Gabriel Attal, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 0.5 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 16 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 3 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 3 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 11 % |
| Gabriel Attal | 8 % |
| Édouard Philippe | 14.5 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 6 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 1.5 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 33 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 3.5 % |
EVENT ID: faaa3931b3ebfb248a9d38780db337f9f4a6322deab5bf53800611769eeb0361PUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 6COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, François Hollande, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
SCENARIO 6COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, François Hollande, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 1.5 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 19 % |
| François Hollande | 12 % |
| Édouard Philippe | 21 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 8 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 2 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 34 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 2.5 % |
EVENT ID: bc4cf6190fcb87af8b27a5da77340df2f32951702651dd4c20a2910a6cc692eePUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 7COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
SCENARIO 7COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 1 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 17 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 3 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 3 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 12 % |
| Édouard Philippe | 18 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 8 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 1.5 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 33 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 3.5 % |
EVENT ID: fcddf261fdcb1633df374b1d6559a8b12523a81faea1918b5ee1927a8ea23ecaPUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗