—
daysbefore the first round
18 Apr 2027
FIRST-ROUND POLL WAVE
Elabe
Published results from Elabe for fieldwork conducted from 26 August 2026 to 28 August 2026. Scenarios are kept separate to preserve the exact composition of the ballots tested.
POLLSTER
Elabe
FIELDWORK
26–28 August 2026
SAMPLE
n=1,501
SCENARIOS
7
CANDIDATES TESTED
16
NO POLLING AVERAGESNO FORECASTNO VOTING ADVICE
SAME POLL · DIFFERENT BALLOTSVARIATION ACROSS PUBLISHED SCENARIOS
OPEN
SAME POLL · DIFFERENT BALLOTS
VARIATION ACROSS PUBLISHED SCENARIOS
Nathalie Arthaud · TESTED IN 7 SCENARIOS1.5 %–2 % · Δ 0.5 pts
Jean-Luc Mélenchon · TESTED IN 7 SCENARIOS14 %–14.5 % · Δ 0.5 pts
Fabien Roussel · TESTED IN 7 SCENARIOS3 %–4.5 % · Δ 1.5 pts
Marine Tondelier · TESTED IN 4 SCENARIOS3 %–4 % · Δ 1 pts
Édouard Philippe · TESTED IN 4 SCENARIOS14.5 %–20.5 % · Δ 6 pts
Bruno Retailleau · TESTED IN 7 SCENARIOS6 %–9.5 % · Δ 3.5 pts
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan · TESTED IN 7 SCENARIOS2 %–3 % · Δ 1 pts
Marine Le Pen · TESTED IN 7 SCENARIOS34 %–35.5 % · Δ 1.5 pts
Éric Zemmour · TESTED IN 7 SCENARIOS4 %–4.5 % · Δ 0.5 pts
Dominique de Villepin · TESTED IN 3 SCENARIOS2 %–2.5 % · Δ 0.5 pts
Raphaël Glucksmann · TESTED IN 3 SCENARIOS11.5 %–14 % · Δ 2.5 pts
François Hollande · TESTED IN 3 SCENARIOS7.5 %–8 % · Δ 0.5 pts
David Lisnard · TESTED IN 2 SCENARIOS3 %–3.5 % · Δ 0.5 pts
François Ruffin · TESTED IN 2 SCENARIOS6 %–6 % · Δ 0 pts
Gabriel Attal · TESTED IN 4 SCENARIOS6.5 %–12.5 % · Δ 6 pts
PUBLISHED RESULTS
WAVE SCENARIOS
7 SCENARIOS
SCENARIO 1COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Olivier Faure, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour, Dominique de Villepin
SCENARIO 1COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Olivier Faure, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour, Dominique de Villepin
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 1.5 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 14.5 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 4.5 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 4 % |
| Olivier Faure | 3.5 % |
| Édouard Philippe | 20.5 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 7 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 2.5 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 35.5 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 4 % |
| Dominique de Villepin | 2.5 % |
EVENT ID: e5eed8bd73f110afa23953fc0eddccaaf1d07ac42c6b23a7107694cc7db15682PUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 2COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour, Dominique de Villepin
SCENARIO 2COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour, Dominique de Villepin
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 1.5 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 14 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 3 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 3.5 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 11.5 % |
| Édouard Philippe | 17 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 6.5 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 3 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 34 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 4 % |
| Dominique de Villepin | 2 % |
EVENT ID: 1da728f5a37ed34b3fd526d6c93b3f2dcb068fdaba1b07581e79dca2d5a05704PUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 3COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, François Hollande, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour, David Lisnard
SCENARIO 3COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, François Hollande, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour, David Lisnard
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 2 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 14 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 3.5 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 4 % |
| François Hollande | 7.5 % |
| Édouard Philippe | 19.5 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 6 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 2.5 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 34 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 4 % |
| David Lisnard | 3 % |
EVENT ID: adf5dcd3fe453e704986e8954be8ba2adf4e847fd3ff39b7f0606724dd65f8efPUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 4COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, François Ruffin, François Hollande, Gabriel Attal, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour, David Lisnard
SCENARIO 4COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, François Ruffin, François Hollande, Gabriel Attal, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour, David Lisnard
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 1.5 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 14 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 4 % |
| François Ruffin | 6 % |
| François Hollande | 8 % |
| Gabriel Attal | 12.5 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 9 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 2.5 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 34.5 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 4.5 % |
| David Lisnard | 3.5 % |
EVENT ID: cc9225fa3a6e2b9fa3f2c0b75f728272b99ab0cf667d9f2334cdf78dda342978PUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 5COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Raphaël Glucksmann, Gabriel Attal, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
SCENARIO 5COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Raphaël Glucksmann, Gabriel Attal, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 1.5 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 14.5 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 3 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 12.5 % |
| Gabriel Attal | 6.5 % |
| Édouard Philippe | 14.5 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 7 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 2.5 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 34 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 4 % |
EVENT ID: 1c8da968a5ffb4d416918896a7b446bf93d8b2fc249553fcf07205e50f0ff5c7PUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 6PARTIAL SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, François Hollande, Gabriel Attal, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour, François Ruffin
SCENARIO 6PARTIAL SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, François Hollande, Gabriel Attal, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour, François Ruffin
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 1.5 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 14 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 4 % |
| François Hollande | 8 % |
| Gabriel Attal | 12.5 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 9 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 2.5 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 34.5 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 4.5 % |
| François Ruffin | 6 % |
EVENT ID: 37bf74917da408a16d8f0460702c226432e25a38dcd9fc977c3a059936c85dcbPUBLISHED TOTAL: 96.5 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 7COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Gabriel Attal, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour, Dominique de Villepin
SCENARIO 7COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Gabriel Attal, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour, Dominique de Villepin
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 1.5 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 14 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 3 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 3 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 14 % |
| Gabriel Attal | 12 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 9.5 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 2 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 34.5 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 4 % |
| Dominique de Villepin | 2.5 % |
EVENT ID: 29ac7a58798d2cc5f943619d27f03701c5175220009e15972c517d7a45b6c34cPUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗