—
daysbefore the first round
18 Apr 2027
FIRST-ROUND POLL WAVE
Ipsos
Published results from Ipsos for fieldwork conducted from 31 August 2026 to 2 September 2026. Scenarios are kept separate to preserve the exact composition of the ballots tested.
POLLSTER
Ipsos
FIELDWORK
31 Aug–2 Sep 2026
SAMPLE
n=1,500
SCENARIOS
6
CANDIDATES TESTED
12
NO POLLING AVERAGESNO FORECASTNO VOTING ADVICE
SAME POLL · DIFFERENT BALLOTSVARIATION ACROSS PUBLISHED SCENARIOS
OPEN
SAME POLL · DIFFERENT BALLOTS
VARIATION ACROSS PUBLISHED SCENARIOS
Nathalie Arthaud · TESTED IN 6 SCENARIOS0.5 %–1 % · Δ 0.5 pts
Jean-Luc Mélenchon · TESTED IN 6 SCENARIOS15 %–17 % · Δ 2 pts
Fabien Roussel · TESTED IN 6 SCENARIOS2.5 %–3.5 % · Δ 1 pts
Marine Tondelier · TESTED IN 6 SCENARIOS3.5 %–5.5 % · Δ 2 pts
Raphaël Glucksmann · TESTED IN 3 SCENARIOS11.5 %–14 % · Δ 2.5 pts
Gabriel Attal · TESTED IN 4 SCENARIOS7.5 %–15.5 % · Δ 8 pts
Bruno Retailleau · TESTED IN 6 SCENARIOS6 %–10 % · Δ 4 pts
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan · TESTED IN 6 SCENARIOS2 %–2.5 % · Δ 0.5 pts
Marine Le Pen · TESTED IN 6 SCENARIOS34 %–36 % · Δ 2 pts
Éric Zemmour · TESTED IN 6 SCENARIOS3 %–3.5 % · Δ 0.5 pts
Olivier Faure · TESTED IN 3 SCENARIOS4.5 %–5.5 % · Δ 1 pts
Édouard Philippe · TESTED IN 4 SCENARIOS14.5 %–22.5 % · Δ 8 pts
PUBLISHED RESULTS
WAVE SCENARIOS
6 SCENARIOS
SCENARIO 1COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Gabriel Attal, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
SCENARIO 1COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Gabriel Attal, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 0.5 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 15 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 2.5 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 4 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 14 % |
| Gabriel Attal | 14 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 9.5 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 2.5 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 35 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 3 % |
EVENT ID: a32116c38a51ee5a6313ffa7951c8c1bca247f8bcdefb208bfa34b053a8e4ffbPUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 2COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Olivier Faure, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
SCENARIO 2COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Olivier Faure, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 1 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 16.5 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 3.5 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 5 % |
| Olivier Faure | 4.5 % |
| Édouard Philippe | 22.5 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 7.5 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 2 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 34.5 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 3 % |
EVENT ID: 167b7ca5bdc5958c8f9b17ab81d2575164b2b2399a3dcada437a950554f776abPUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 3COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Olivier Faure, Gabriel Attal, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
SCENARIO 3COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Olivier Faure, Gabriel Attal, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 1 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 17 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 3.5 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 5.5 % |
| Olivier Faure | 5.5 % |
| Gabriel Attal | 15.5 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 10 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 2.5 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 36 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 3.5 % |
EVENT ID: d53000c5d264f54d11fe1522b92570966c91fcd335f32887b4461e474d7732a7PUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 4COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Olivier Faure, Gabriel Attal, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
SCENARIO 4COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Olivier Faure, Gabriel Attal, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 1 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 16 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 3 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 5 % |
| Olivier Faure | 4.5 % |
| Gabriel Attal | 8.5 % |
| Édouard Philippe | 16.5 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 6 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 2 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 34.5 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 3 % |
EVENT ID: ae32fa4e5db242ed30e9e54e03bed1915cda611ab3425778e946cb96a15f3253PUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 5COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Gabriel Attal, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
SCENARIO 5COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Gabriel Attal, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 0.5 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 15 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 2.5 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 3.5 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 11.5 % |
| Gabriel Attal | 7.5 % |
| Édouard Philippe | 14.5 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 6 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 2 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 34 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 3 % |
EVENT ID: b956766bee4fc2795b19e81a23c80f4c10356d547e07aa4e86825e6e2786f443PUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 6COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
SCENARIO 6COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 0.5 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 15 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 2.5 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 4 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 12 % |
| Édouard Philippe | 19 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 7.5 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 2 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 34.5 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 3 % |
EVENT ID: 5fb7463e879a2fc782072c7e41434af61b2c84ba2e8b119f671ad5dc2212590aPUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗