—
daysbefore the first round
18 Apr 2027
FIRST-ROUND POLL WAVE
Ipsos
Published results from Ipsos for fieldwork conducted from 3 September 2026 to 9 September 2026. Scenarios are kept separate to preserve the exact composition of the ballots tested.
POLLSTER
Ipsos
FIELDWORK
3–9 September 2026
SAMPLE
n=13,060
SCENARIOS
6
CANDIDATES TESTED
12
NO POLLING AVERAGESNO FORECASTNO VOTING ADVICE
SAME POLL · DIFFERENT BALLOTSVARIATION ACROSS PUBLISHED SCENARIOS
OPEN
SAME POLL · DIFFERENT BALLOTS
VARIATION ACROSS PUBLISHED SCENARIOS
Nathalie Arthaud · TESTED IN 6 SCENARIOS0.5 %–0.5 % · Δ 0 pts
Jean-Luc Mélenchon · TESTED IN 6 SCENARIOS15.5 %–17 % · Δ 1.5 pts
Fabien Roussel · TESTED IN 6 SCENARIOS2.5 %–3.5 % · Δ 1 pts
Marine Tondelier · TESTED IN 6 SCENARIOS4 %–5.5 % · Δ 1.5 pts
Raphaël Glucksmann · TESTED IN 3 SCENARIOS11.5 %–13.5 % · Δ 2 pts
Gabriel Attal · TESTED IN 4 SCENARIOS6 %–15.5 % · Δ 9.5 pts
Bruno Retailleau · TESTED IN 6 SCENARIOS7 %–10.5 % · Δ 3.5 pts
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan · TESTED IN 6 SCENARIOS2 %–2.5 % · Δ 0.5 pts
Marine Le Pen · TESTED IN 6 SCENARIOS33 %–35 % · Δ 2 pts
Éric Zemmour · TESTED IN 6 SCENARIOS4 %–4.5 % · Δ 0.5 pts
Olivier Faure · TESTED IN 3 SCENARIOS4.5 %–5.5 % · Δ 1 pts
Édouard Philippe · TESTED IN 4 SCENARIOS14 %–21 % · Δ 7 pts
PUBLISHED RESULTS
WAVE SCENARIOS
6 SCENARIOS
SCENARIO 1COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Gabriel Attal, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
SCENARIO 1COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Gabriel Attal, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 0.5 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 15.5 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 2.5 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 4.5 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 13.5 % |
| Gabriel Attal | 13 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 10 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 2 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 34 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 4.5 % |
EVENT ID: fab5a0e7bfcf26983f8f8f6332ed9b392f2930bef773c5d0256a424d3cac1b4fPUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 2COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Olivier Faure, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
SCENARIO 2COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Olivier Faure, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 0.5 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 16.5 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 3.5 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 5.5 % |
| Olivier Faure | 5 % |
| Édouard Philippe | 21 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 7.5 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 2 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 34.5 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 4 % |
EVENT ID: bb2a5f438503c57d6011bcacf30d2e6474db4c6b1c38464982e2484442f4c6adPUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 3COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Olivier Faure, Gabriel Attal, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
SCENARIO 3COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Olivier Faure, Gabriel Attal, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 0.5 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 17 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 3.5 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 5.5 % |
| Olivier Faure | 5.5 % |
| Gabriel Attal | 15.5 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 10.5 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 2.5 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 35 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 4.5 % |
EVENT ID: 6428603618f62e9920b6e88635721895829e2fe032a7c1416670f61a7183d730PUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 4COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Olivier Faure, Gabriel Attal, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
SCENARIO 4COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Olivier Faure, Gabriel Attal, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 0.5 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 16.5 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 3 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 5 % |
| Olivier Faure | 4.5 % |
| Gabriel Attal | 7.5 % |
| Édouard Philippe | 16 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 7 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 2 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 34 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 4 % |
EVENT ID: 67fd223c5ac0738b4ac94ffa2b7793626c7af707be317425f424eb76ac661ff2PUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 5COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Gabriel Attal, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
SCENARIO 5COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Gabriel Attal, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 0.5 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 15.5 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 2.5 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 4 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 11.5 % |
| Gabriel Attal | 6 % |
| Édouard Philippe | 14 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 7 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 2 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 33 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 4 % |
EVENT ID: 0f7e6a8b0b0c11119a45e65c00e2fb0fac793563148443fbbce1760ade0cab46PUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 6COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
SCENARIO 6COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 0.5 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 15.5 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 2.5 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 4 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 12.5 % |
| Édouard Philippe | 17.5 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 8 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 2 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 33.5 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 4 % |
EVENT ID: ac5760a1a6f34915a7822a02ef9e1d6bfb6964f474d9435ec6bc53bdf59c33c7PUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗