—
daysbefore the first round
18 Apr 2027
FIRST-ROUND POLL WAVE
OpinionWay
Published results from OpinionWay for fieldwork conducted from 11 September 2024 to 12 September 2024. Scenarios are kept separate to preserve the exact composition of the ballots tested.
POLLSTER
OpinionWay
FIELDWORK
11–12 September 2024
SAMPLE
n=1,009
SCENARIOS
6
CANDIDATES TESTED
15
NO POLLING AVERAGESNO FORECASTNO VOTING ADVICE
SAME POLL · DIFFERENT BALLOTSVARIATION ACROSS PUBLISHED SCENARIOS
OPEN
SAME POLL · DIFFERENT BALLOTS
VARIATION ACROSS PUBLISHED SCENARIOS
Fabien Roussel · TESTED IN 3 SCENARIOS3 %–4 % · Δ 1 pts
Jean-Luc Mélenchon · TESTED IN 6 SCENARIOS4 %–15 % · Δ 11 pts
Raphaël Glucksmann · TESTED IN 4 SCENARIOS12 %–14 % · Δ 2 pts
Sandrine Rousseau · TESTED IN 4 SCENARIOS1 %–1 % · Δ 0 pts
Édouard Philippe · TESTED IN 6 SCENARIOS23 %–31 % · Δ 8 pts
Laurent Wauquiez · TESTED IN 4 SCENARIOS4 %–6 % · Δ 2 pts
Marine Le Pen · TESTED IN 5 SCENARIOS34 %–40 % · Δ 6 pts
Éric Zemmour · TESTED IN 6 SCENARIOS4 %–5 % · Δ 1 pts
Nathalie Arthaud · TESTED IN 2 SCENARIOS1 %–1 % · Δ 0 pts
Philippe Poutou · TESTED IN 2 SCENARIOS2 %–2 % · Δ 0 pts
Gabriel Attal · TESTED IN 2 SCENARIOS8 %–10 % · Δ 2 pts
PUBLISHED RESULTS
WAVE SCENARIOS
6 SCENARIOS
SCENARIO 1COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Fabien Roussel, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Raphaël Glucksmann, Sandrine Rousseau, Édouard Philippe, Laurent Wauquiez, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
SCENARIO 1COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Fabien Roussel, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Raphaël Glucksmann, Sandrine Rousseau, Édouard Philippe, Laurent Wauquiez, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Fabien Roussel | 4 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 10 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 14 % |
| Sandrine Rousseau | 1 % |
| Édouard Philippe | 26 % |
| Laurent Wauquiez | 5 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 35 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 5 % |
EVENT ID: b6e66c2780340b6a04fb161ada87ee8e32be5ea16d1e52a505c6fe84ecdb7bb2PUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 2COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Fabien Roussel, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Raphaël Glucksmann, Sandrine Rousseau, Édouard Philippe, Michel Barnier, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
SCENARIO 2COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Fabien Roussel, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Raphaël Glucksmann, Sandrine Rousseau, Édouard Philippe, Michel Barnier, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Fabien Roussel | 4 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 10 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 14 % |
| Sandrine Rousseau | 1 % |
| Édouard Philippe | 27 % |
| Michel Barnier | 4 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 36 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 4 % |
EVENT ID: 8e3bf62490e1490790acd6e8e00d2f8eaa149bd3ba463ed0116c173471915f51PUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 3COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Jean-Luc Mélenchon, François Ruffin, Raphaël Glucksmann, Sandrine Rousseau, Édouard Philippe, Laurent Wauquiez, Jordan Bardella, Éric Zemmour
SCENARIO 3COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Jean-Luc Mélenchon, François Ruffin, Raphaël Glucksmann, Sandrine Rousseau, Édouard Philippe, Laurent Wauquiez, Jordan Bardella, Éric Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 4 % |
| François Ruffin | 10 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 14 % |
| Sandrine Rousseau | 1 % |
| Édouard Philippe | 28 % |
| Laurent Wauquiez | 4 % |
| Jordan Bardella | 35 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 4 % |
EVENT ID: 79d5df3e170dff5582122a438a61cec9a4304139e6fae6432343cda4b02e0c0bPUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 4COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Philippe Poutou, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Édouard Philippe, Xavier Bertrand, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
SCENARIO 4COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Philippe Poutou, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Édouard Philippe, Xavier Bertrand, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 1 % |
| Philippe Poutou | 2 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 15 % |
| Édouard Philippe | 31 % |
| Xavier Bertrand | 7 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 40 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 4 % |
EVENT ID: 699078ce22f51beeeae75fdb9531c46dea88ceec333c63565fa5e21d06dbafc1PUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 5COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Philippe Poutou, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Gabriel Attal, Édouard Philippe, Laurent Wauquiez, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
SCENARIO 5COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Philippe Poutou, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Gabriel Attal, Édouard Philippe, Laurent Wauquiez, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 1 % |
| Philippe Poutou | 2 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 14 % |
| Gabriel Attal | 10 % |
| Édouard Philippe | 25 % |
| Laurent Wauquiez | 6 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 38 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 4 % |
EVENT ID: d3a9a628b1386f26912fc2d5d5b15a3de79ef0daa4152cd71a92867620e7f3f3PUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 6COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Fabien Roussel, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Raphaël Glucksmann, Sandrine Rousseau, Gabriel Attal, Édouard Philippe, Laurent Wauquiez, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
SCENARIO 6COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Fabien Roussel, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Raphaël Glucksmann, Sandrine Rousseau, Gabriel Attal, Édouard Philippe, Laurent Wauquiez, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Fabien Roussel | 3 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 10 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 12 % |
| Sandrine Rousseau | 1 % |
| Gabriel Attal | 8 % |
| Édouard Philippe | 23 % |
| Laurent Wauquiez | 5 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 34 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 4 % |
EVENT ID: 4cf8d0a9a1f41e65a42fdd2d616c5805380a54f4d61c06ef72ed464e8efd23ffPUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗