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daysbefore the first round
18 Apr 2027
FIRST-ROUND POLL WAVE
Cluster17
Published results from Cluster17 for fieldwork conducted from 15 September 2026 to 16 September 2026. Scenarios are kept separate to preserve the exact composition of the ballots tested.
POLLSTER
Cluster17
FIELDWORK
15–16 September 2026
SAMPLE
n=1,943
SCENARIOS
3
CANDIDATES TESTED
13
NO POLLING AVERAGESNO FORECASTNO VOTING ADVICE
SAME POLL · DIFFERENT BALLOTSVARIATION ACROSS PUBLISHED SCENARIOS
OPEN
SAME POLL · DIFFERENT BALLOTS
VARIATION ACROSS PUBLISHED SCENARIOS
Nathalie Arthaud · TESTED IN 3 SCENARIOS0.5 %–1 % · Δ 0.5 pts
Jean-Luc Mélenchon · TESTED IN 3 SCENARIOS19 %–20 % · Δ 1 pts
Fabien Roussel · TESTED IN 3 SCENARIOS2 %–3 % · Δ 1 pts
Marine Tondelier · TESTED IN 3 SCENARIOS2.5 %–3 % · Δ 0.5 pts
Raphaël Glucksmann · TESTED IN 2 SCENARIOS12 %–14 % · Δ 2 pts
Bruno Retailleau · TESTED IN 3 SCENARIOS7.5 %–9.5 % · Δ 2 pts
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan · TESTED IN 3 SCENARIOS3 %–4 % · Δ 1 pts
Marine Le Pen · TESTED IN 3 SCENARIOS30 %–31 % · Δ 1 pts
Éric Zemmour · TESTED IN 2 SCENARIOS3.5 %–3.5 % · Δ 0 pts
Édouard Philippe · TESTED IN 2 SCENARIOS19 %–19.5 % · Δ 0.5 pts
PUBLISHED RESULTS
WAVE SCENARIOS
3 SCENARIOS
SCENARIO 1COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Gabriel Attal, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
SCENARIO 1COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Gabriel Attal, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 0.5 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 20 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 2.5 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 2.5 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 14 % |
| Gabriel Attal | 13.5 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 9.5 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 3 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 31 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 3.5 % |
EVENT ID: 440af5d658d87f19584558c1fd5f5772e6815ce9f5330cf487554be876e4337cPUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 2COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, François Hollande, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, David Lisnard
SCENARIO 2COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, François Hollande, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, David Lisnard
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 1 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 19.5 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 3 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 3 % |
| François Hollande | 7.5 % |
| Édouard Philippe | 19.5 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 7.5 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 4 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 30 % |
| David Lisnard | 5 % |
EVENT ID: dbd4d0a0c168b8dd853117aef7d9963a57054f2eaf520dea0842c0aa4e15e289PUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 3COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
SCENARIO 3COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 0.5 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 19 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 2 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 2.5 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 12 % |
| Édouard Philippe | 19 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 7.5 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 3 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 31 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 3.5 % |
EVENT ID: 5d3b7a892d22e89eb0e41f0f7ef2029056d436d77458a1987ee64bcb4a12170fPUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗