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daysbefore the first round
18 Apr 2027
FIRST-ROUND POLL WAVE
YouGov
Published results from YouGov for fieldwork conducted from 17 September 2026 to 21 September 2026. Scenarios are kept separate to preserve the exact composition of the ballots tested.
POLLSTER
YouGov
FIELDWORK
17–21 September 2026
SAMPLE
n=1,103
SCENARIOS
6
CANDIDATES TESTED
18
NO POLLING AVERAGESNO FORECASTNO VOTING ADVICE
SAME POLL · DIFFERENT BALLOTSVARIATION ACROSS PUBLISHED SCENARIOS
OPEN
SAME POLL · DIFFERENT BALLOTS
VARIATION ACROSS PUBLISHED SCENARIOS
Nathalie Arthaud · TESTED IN 6 SCENARIOS1 %–1 % · Δ 0 pts
Jean-Luc Mélenchon · TESTED IN 6 SCENARIOS15 %–18 % · Δ 3 pts
Fabien Roussel · TESTED IN 6 SCENARIOS1 %–3 % · Δ 2 pts
Marine Tondelier · TESTED IN 6 SCENARIOS2 %–7 % · Δ 5 pts
Raphaël Glucksmann · TESTED IN 4 SCENARIOS5 %–9 % · Δ 4 pts
Gabriel Attal · TESTED IN 4 SCENARIOS8 %–14 % · Δ 6 pts
Bruno Retailleau · TESTED IN 6 SCENARIOS7 %–10 % · Δ 3 pts
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan · TESTED IN 6 SCENARIOS2 %–2 % · Δ 0 pts
Marine Le Pen · TESTED IN 6 SCENARIOS33 %–37 % · Δ 4 pts
Éric Zemmour · TESTED IN 6 SCENARIOS5 %–6 % · Δ 1 pts
Édouard Philippe · TESTED IN 5 SCENARIOS10 %–17 % · Δ 7 pts
PUBLISHED RESULTS
WAVE SCENARIOS
6 SCENARIOS
SCENARIO 1COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Gabriel Attal, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
SCENARIO 1COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Gabriel Attal, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 1 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 17 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 3 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 3 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 9 % |
| Gabriel Attal | 14 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 10 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 2 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 35 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 5 % |
EVENT ID: 1412effcb1a765a0a56850a8e0dd842a4b05deb976d158efbb31a0ada85168f0PUBLISHED TOTAL: 99 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 2COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Bruno Le Maire, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
SCENARIO 2COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Bruno Le Maire, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 1 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 17 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 2 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 3 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 9 % |
| Bruno Le Maire | 3 % |
| Édouard Philippe | 13 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 8 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 2 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 35 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 6 % |
EVENT ID: e3bd315da43ee17ba8179519e0a3cde4f8331d975d62c742f145bb492a4c25fbPUBLISHED TOTAL: 99 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 3PARTIAL SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
SCENARIO 3PARTIAL SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 1 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 18 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 3 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 7 % |
| Édouard Philippe | 17 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 8 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 2 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 37 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 5 % |
EVENT ID: 649b93dfc310012f1f34105bae182dffec0aa88f919d267b4595e4c4291b42b1PUBLISHED TOTAL: 98 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 4COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Olivier Faure, Gabriel Attal, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
SCENARIO 4COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Olivier Faure, Gabriel Attal, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 1 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 16 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 2 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 4 % |
| Olivier Faure | 5 % |
| Gabriel Attal | 9 % |
| Édouard Philippe | 12 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 8 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 2 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 35 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 6 % |
EVENT ID: cf0f5ec68eed02381f89b59e5e8dba1d6ccd2c81a4f3c99e504e2415e5e681d2PUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 5COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, François Hollande, Raphaël Glucksmann, Gabriel Attal, Édouard Philippe, Dominique de Villepin, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour, David Lisnard, François Ruffin, Xavier Bertrand
SCENARIO 5COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, François Hollande, Raphaël Glucksmann, Gabriel Attal, Édouard Philippe, Dominique de Villepin, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour, David Lisnard, François Ruffin, Xavier Bertrand
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 1 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 15 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 1 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 2 % |
| François Hollande | 4 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 5 % |
| Gabriel Attal | 8 % |
| Édouard Philippe | 10 % |
| Dominique de Villepin | 2 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 7 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 2 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 33 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 5 % |
| David Lisnard | 2 % |
| François Ruffin | 2 % |
| Xavier Bertrand | 1 % |
EVENT ID: 44a6411d5cbb73e264613fcd90f0857576049bd039fd189db6c10e5028eda108PUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 6COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Gabriel Attal, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
SCENARIO 6COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Gabriel Attal, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 1 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 17 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 2 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 3 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 8 % |
| Gabriel Attal | 9 % |
| Édouard Philippe | 12 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 8 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 2 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 34 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 6 % |
EVENT ID: fce9f5e59dc2dc1d26b53f7c8aa5551ab862c7ce78140cfe3ce0f5d36b5d46f1PUBLISHED TOTAL: 102 %SOURCE ↗