—
daysbefore the first round
18 Apr 2027
FIRST-ROUND POLL WAVE
Ifop
Published results from Ifop for fieldwork conducted from 25 September 2026 to 29 September 2026. Scenarios are kept separate to preserve the exact composition of the ballots tested.
POLLSTER
Ifop
FIELDWORK
25–29 September 2026
SAMPLE
n=1,393
SCENARIOS
10
CANDIDATES TESTED
19
NO POLLING AVERAGESNO FORECASTNO VOTING ADVICE
SAME POLL · DIFFERENT BALLOTSVARIATION ACROSS PUBLISHED SCENARIOS
OPEN
SAME POLL · DIFFERENT BALLOTS
VARIATION ACROSS PUBLISHED SCENARIOS
Nathalie Arthaud · TESTED IN 10 SCENARIOS0.5 %–1 % · Δ 0.5 pts
Jean-Luc Mélenchon · TESTED IN 10 SCENARIOS14 %–17 % · Δ 3 pts
Fabien Roussel · TESTED IN 10 SCENARIOS2 %–3.5 % · Δ 1.5 pts
Marine Tondelier · TESTED IN 10 SCENARIOS3 %–6 % · Δ 3 pts
Raphaël Glucksmann · TESTED IN 4 SCENARIOS9 %–13 % · Δ 4 pts
Gabriel Attal · TESTED IN 4 SCENARIOS7 %–17 % · Δ 10 pts
Bruno Retailleau · TESTED IN 10 SCENARIOS5 %–11 % · Δ 6 pts
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan · TESTED IN 10 SCENARIOS1 %–2 % · Δ 1 pts
Marine Le Pen · TESTED IN 10 SCENARIOS31 %–36 % · Δ 5 pts
Éric Zemmour · TESTED IN 10 SCENARIOS3 %–4.5 % · Δ 1.5 pts
Édouard Philippe · TESTED IN 8 SCENARIOS15 %–24 % · Δ 9 pts
Olivier Faure · TESTED IN 2 SCENARIOS3 %–4 % · Δ 1 pts
PUBLISHED RESULTS
WAVE SCENARIOS
10 SCENARIOS
SCENARIO 1COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Gabriel Attal, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
SCENARIO 1COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Gabriel Attal, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 1 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 15 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 2.5 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 4 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 13 % |
| Gabriel Attal | 15 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 10 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 2 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 34 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 3.5 % |
EVENT ID: cca95266da8cc497acc3ea505c8a5397880c626b0e7d264fed3f4ffc7c69a190PUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 2COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Jérôme Guedj, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
SCENARIO 2COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Jérôme Guedj, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 1 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 17 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 3.5 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 5.5 % |
| Jérôme Guedj | 3 % |
| Édouard Philippe | 23 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 8 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 1 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 35 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 3 % |
EVENT ID: d6a2cb3620d25f29157b0654965fcfb52d1a21ab3f18b519661468502bd05f54PUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 3COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Olivier Faure, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
SCENARIO 3COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Olivier Faure, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 1 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 16 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 3.5 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 5 % |
| Olivier Faure | 3 % |
| Édouard Philippe | 23 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 8 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 1.5 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 35 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 4 % |
EVENT ID: dc7deea05ea268e319016dcbae38cd6a362d4b8f3428b11a9982d89cc02491e5PUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 4COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Olivier Faure, Gabriel Attal, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
SCENARIO 4COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Olivier Faure, Gabriel Attal, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 1 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 17 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 3 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 5.5 % |
| Olivier Faure | 4 % |
| Gabriel Attal | 17 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 11 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 1 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 36 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 4.5 % |
EVENT ID: e938c80b676988665c0bedc3f87f835f5f12c875306931e833290167068233e7PUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 5COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, François Ruffin, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Gabriel Attal, Édouard Philippe, Dominique de Villepin, David Lisnard, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
SCENARIO 5COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, François Ruffin, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Gabriel Attal, Édouard Philippe, Dominique de Villepin, David Lisnard, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 0.5 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 14 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 2 % |
| François Ruffin | 3 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 3 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 9 % |
| Gabriel Attal | 7 % |
| Édouard Philippe | 15 % |
| Dominique de Villepin | 2 % |
| David Lisnard | 3.5 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 5 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 1 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 31 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 4 % |
EVENT ID: 7ae37b33f52f31df34aa2b1fd0e5a326fff1c7e6b8683255b30472d9fb44309aPUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 6COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Ségolène Royal, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
SCENARIO 6COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Ségolène Royal, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 0.5 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 15 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 3 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 6 % |
| Ségolène Royal | 3 % |
| Édouard Philippe | 24 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 8 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 1.5 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 35 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 4 % |
EVENT ID: 12a0639abdc7d065ae67b0a4613c2b56a3cf8f854bad12c628e46bf982e1b5ebPUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 7COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Emmanuel Maurel, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
SCENARIO 7COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Emmanuel Maurel, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 1 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 17 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 3.5 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 6 % |
| Emmanuel Maurel | 1 % |
| Édouard Philippe | 23 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 9 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 1.5 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 35 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 3 % |
EVENT ID: 40f28f59058261a5f0f984caf39f816c612a06b0e11d36b6daabdb1737c4914ePUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 8COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Gabriel Attal, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
SCENARIO 8COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Gabriel Attal, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 0.5 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 15 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 2.5 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 3 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 11 % |
| Gabriel Attal | 8 % |
| Édouard Philippe | 16 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 7 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 1 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 32 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 4 % |
EVENT ID: 3faf55681bc28ffd2da5210c65a232b263e8825879539f9fa3a93e22669bfc44PUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 9COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, François Hollande, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
SCENARIO 9COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, François Hollande, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 0.5 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 16 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 2.5 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 5 % |
| François Hollande | 8 % |
| Édouard Philippe | 22 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 7 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 1 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 34 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 4 % |
EVENT ID: 6f6756d00e9d2a390e9e55c7883ee66bc383d47f257f49fa00e49d1e48367ec9PUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 10COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
SCENARIO 10COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 0.5 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 16 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 2.5 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 3 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 11 % |
| Édouard Philippe | 21 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 8 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 1.5 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 33 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 3.5 % |
EVENT ID: 5810eda3138de004f8f5775c96b3f7b3620abbe6086e00af87829267c1398409PUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗