—
daysbefore the first round
18 Apr 2027
FIRST-ROUND POLL WAVE
Harris
Published results from Harris for fieldwork conducted from 5 October 2026 to 8 October 2026. Scenarios are kept separate to preserve the exact composition of the ballots tested.
POLLSTER
Harris
FIELDWORK
5–8 October 2026
SAMPLE
n=2,004
SCENARIOS
5
CANDIDATES TESTED
12
NO POLLING AVERAGESNO FORECASTNO VOTING ADVICE
SAME POLL · DIFFERENT BALLOTSVARIATION ACROSS PUBLISHED SCENARIOS
OPEN
SAME POLL · DIFFERENT BALLOTS
VARIATION ACROSS PUBLISHED SCENARIOS
Nathalie Arthaud · TESTED IN 5 SCENARIOS1 %–1 % · Δ 0 pts
Jean-Luc Mélenchon · TESTED IN 5 SCENARIOS18 %–19 % · Δ 1 pts
Fabien Roussel · TESTED IN 5 SCENARIOS2 %–3 % · Δ 1 pts
Marine Tondelier · TESTED IN 5 SCENARIOS2 %–5 % · Δ 3 pts
François Hollande · TESTED IN 2 SCENARIOS7 %–7 % · Δ 0 pts
Gabriel Attal · TESTED IN 3 SCENARIOS5 %–12 % · Δ 7 pts
Bruno Retailleau · TESTED IN 5 SCENARIOS7 %–10 % · Δ 3 pts
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan · TESTED IN 5 SCENARIOS2 %–2 % · Δ 0 pts
Marine Le Pen · TESTED IN 5 SCENARIOS35 %–37 % · Δ 2 pts
Éric Zemmour · TESTED IN 5 SCENARIOS4 %–5 % · Δ 1 pts
Raphaël Glucksmann · TESTED IN 3 SCENARIOS10 %–11 % · Δ 1 pts
Édouard Philippe · TESTED IN 3 SCENARIOS13 %–17 % · Δ 4 pts
PUBLISHED RESULTS
WAVE SCENARIOS
5 SCENARIOS
SCENARIO 1COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, François Hollande, Gabriel Attal, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
SCENARIO 1COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, François Hollande, Gabriel Attal, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 1 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 19 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 2 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 5 % |
| François Hollande | 7 % |
| Gabriel Attal | 12 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 10 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 2 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 37 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 5 % |
EVENT ID: 7d509c935fca987cfeb13a06132d9e23cd97ff2339f3ebba3c048b93a0dc4c06PUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 2COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Gabriel Attal, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
SCENARIO 2COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Gabriel Attal, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 1 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 18 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 2 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 3 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 11 % |
| Gabriel Attal | 12 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 10 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 2 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 36 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 5 % |
EVENT ID: a0670f44b3422b262d409b4e87a311b1a13e481433fb933b3c636a557934ccb9PUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 3COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Gabriel Attal, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
SCENARIO 3COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Gabriel Attal, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 1 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 18 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 2 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 2 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 10 % |
| Gabriel Attal | 5 % |
| Édouard Philippe | 13 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 7 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 2 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 35 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 5 % |
EVENT ID: 003ea41284c91407011bf3d22784e12600f439baa1cb2600b354cbe5918769a1PUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 4COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, François Hollande, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
SCENARIO 4COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, François Hollande, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 1 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 18 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 3 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 4 % |
| François Hollande | 7 % |
| Édouard Philippe | 17 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 8 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 2 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 36 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 4 % |
EVENT ID: ff997ba2744a25e14270f76945f0c766519f16bfd7b916c83f25287bc063cb91PUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 5COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
SCENARIO 5COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 1 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 18 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 2 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 3 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 10 % |
| Édouard Philippe | 17 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 7 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 2 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 36 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 4 % |
EVENT ID: 6e60fb9acfdb11ec72dddbe7f6e37dd88ba685fa7703e445d5cb30f16b2364a2PUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗