—
daysbefore the first round
18 Apr 2027
FIRST-ROUND POLL WAVE
Cluster17
Published results from Cluster17 for fieldwork conducted from 14 October 2026 to 15 October 2026. Scenarios are kept separate to preserve the exact composition of the ballots tested.
POLLSTER
Cluster17
FIELDWORK
14–15 October 2026
SAMPLE
n=1,263
SCENARIOS
5
CANDIDATES TESTED
12
NO POLLING AVERAGESNO FORECASTNO VOTING ADVICE
SAME POLL · DIFFERENT BALLOTSVARIATION ACROSS PUBLISHED SCENARIOS
OPEN
SAME POLL · DIFFERENT BALLOTS
VARIATION ACROSS PUBLISHED SCENARIOS
Nathalie Arthaud · TESTED IN 5 SCENARIOS0.5 %–1 % · Δ 0.5 pts
Jean-Luc Mélenchon · TESTED IN 5 SCENARIOS18 %–20.5 % · Δ 2.5 pts
Fabien Roussel · TESTED IN 5 SCENARIOS1.5 %–2 % · Δ 0.5 pts
Marine Tondelier · TESTED IN 5 SCENARIOS2 %–2 % · Δ 0 pts
Raphaël Glucksmann · TESTED IN 5 SCENARIOS11 %–16 % · Δ 5 pts
Édouard Philippe · TESTED IN 2 SCENARIOS17 %–20 % · Δ 3 pts
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan · TESTED IN 5 SCENARIOS2 %–3.5 % · Δ 1.5 pts
Marine Le Pen · TESTED IN 5 SCENARIOS31 %–35.5 % · Δ 4.5 pts
Éric Zemmour · TESTED IN 5 SCENARIOS3 %–5.5 % · Δ 2.5 pts
David Lisnard · TESTED IN 2 SCENARIOS7 %–17 % · Δ 10 pts
Bruno Retailleau · TESTED IN 2 SCENARIOS7 %–17.5 % · Δ 10.5 pts
PUBLISHED RESULTS
WAVE SCENARIOS
5 SCENARIOS
SCENARIO 1COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Édouard Philippe, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
SCENARIO 1COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Édouard Philippe, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 0.5 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 20 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 2 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 2 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 12 % |
| Édouard Philippe | 20 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 3 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 35.5 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 5 % |
EVENT ID: 78771a283ba01bc08b19e573c2aea5b46fa56f95ea0586cf3b216f978e0f9923PUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 2COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour, David Lisnard
SCENARIO 2COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour, David Lisnard
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 1 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 20.5 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 2 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 2 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 16 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 2 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 35.5 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 4 % |
| David Lisnard | 17 % |
EVENT ID: 3b0a3349f1370c7c36d8b13be0ffddbb5450e20a5dd2e6651ac970263b9a5413PUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 3COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour, David Lisnard
SCENARIO 3COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour, David Lisnard
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 0.5 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 18 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 1.5 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 2 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 11 % |
| Édouard Philippe | 17 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 7 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 2 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 31 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 3 % |
| David Lisnard | 7 % |
EVENT ID: b8d53d66700a7ee8d6861b3f1cf98efbe536f0b763a846277be80d0df7333875PUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 4COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
SCENARIO 4COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 1 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 20 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 2 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 2 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 16 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 17.5 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 3 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 34.5 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 4 % |
EVENT ID: 952da24f81353975ce2177d0c01b2f9cf0a93c4a22f7f9b1e6c19cabf7eafb54PUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 5COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Gabriel Attal, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
SCENARIO 5COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Gabriel Attal, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 1 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 20 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 2 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 2 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 13.5 % |
| Gabriel Attal | 17 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 3.5 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 35.5 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 5.5 % |
EVENT ID: 7423cac33b3aed0d9f9fcdd9e41d2b211007395523c324b73e1019f446f35840PUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗