—
daysbefore the first round
18 Apr 2027
FIRST-ROUND POLL WAVE
Elabe
Published results from Elabe for fieldwork conducted from 14 October 2026 to 16 October 2026. Scenarios are kept separate to preserve the exact composition of the ballots tested.
POLLSTER
Elabe
FIELDWORK
14–16 October 2026
SAMPLE
n=1,701
SCENARIOS
5
CANDIDATES TESTED
14
NO POLLING AVERAGESNO FORECASTNO VOTING ADVICE
SAME POLL · DIFFERENT BALLOTSVARIATION ACROSS PUBLISHED SCENARIOS
OPEN
SAME POLL · DIFFERENT BALLOTS
VARIATION ACROSS PUBLISHED SCENARIOS
Nathalie Arthaud · TESTED IN 5 SCENARIOS0.5 %–1 % · Δ 0.5 pts
Jean-Luc Mélenchon · TESTED IN 5 SCENARIOS15 %–16 % · Δ 1 pts
Fabien Roussel · TESTED IN 5 SCENARIOS1.5 %–2 % · Δ 0.5 pts
Marine Tondelier · TESTED IN 4 SCENARIOS2.5 %–3 % · Δ 0.5 pts
Raphaël Glucksmann · TESTED IN 5 SCENARIOS15 %–16.5 % · Δ 1.5 pts
Édouard Philippe · TESTED IN 3 SCENARIOS13.5 %–16.5 % · Δ 3 pts
Bruno Retailleau · TESTED IN 5 SCENARIOS6.5 %–9.5 % · Δ 3 pts
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan · TESTED IN 5 SCENARIOS2 %–3 % · Δ 1 pts
Marine Le Pen · TESTED IN 5 SCENARIOS31 %–33.5 % · Δ 2.5 pts
Éric Zemmour · TESTED IN 5 SCENARIOS3 %–3.5 % · Δ 0.5 pts
Dominique de Villepin · TESTED IN 2 SCENARIOS2 %–3 % · Δ 1 pts
Gabriel Attal · TESTED IN 3 SCENARIOS4.5 %–10.5 % · Δ 6 pts
David Lisnard · TESTED IN 2 SCENARIOS5.5 %–6.5 % · Δ 1 pts
PUBLISHED RESULTS
WAVE SCENARIOS
5 SCENARIOS
SCENARIO 1COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour, Dominique de Villepin
SCENARIO 1COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour, Dominique de Villepin
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 1 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 15 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 1.5 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 3 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 15.5 % |
| Édouard Philippe | 16.5 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 7 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 2.5 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 32.5 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 3.5 % |
| Dominique de Villepin | 2 % |
EVENT ID: 7ee19ced363715b4348b5ea26a9ebaf3bf8b543484a57213b497f874ef486149PUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 2COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Raphaël Glucksmann, Gabriel Attal, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour, François Ruffin, David Lisnard
SCENARIO 2COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Raphaël Glucksmann, Gabriel Attal, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour, François Ruffin, David Lisnard
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 1 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 16 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 1.5 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 16.5 % |
| Gabriel Attal | 9.5 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 9 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 2.5 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 31 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 3.5 % |
| François Ruffin | 3 % |
| David Lisnard | 6.5 % |
EVENT ID: fa50fd467626dce418bbdf33a5c859235e51b6b7d5d67158e0eb5a13b9bac856PUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 3COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour, David Lisnard
SCENARIO 3COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour, David Lisnard
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 0.5 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 15.5 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 1.5 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 2.5 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 15 % |
| Édouard Philippe | 15.5 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 6.5 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 3 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 31.5 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 3 % |
| David Lisnard | 5.5 % |
EVENT ID: e8c6a9220ec0addb6bdb9e4370d871ee7d788f04d06bf5e54caadf0aa28d6f51PUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 4COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Gabriel Attal, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
SCENARIO 4COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Gabriel Attal, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 0.5 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 15.5 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 1.5 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 2.5 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 15.5 % |
| Gabriel Attal | 4.5 % |
| Édouard Philippe | 13.5 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 7.5 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 3 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 32.5 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 3.5 % |
EVENT ID: 63aecb7f3bd59f50845e47dc628ed7d480330d1a028228561ad2cc6a3bb1afb0PUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 5COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Gabriel Attal, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour, Dominique de Villepin
SCENARIO 5COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Gabriel Attal, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour, Dominique de Villepin
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 1 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 16 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 2 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 2.5 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 16.5 % |
| Gabriel Attal | 10.5 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 9.5 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 2 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 33.5 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 3.5 % |
| Dominique de Villepin | 3 % |
EVENT ID: 5ff49eb542f9bf3d36d1d373a75293825bf1642f78ccd9b52b7d8e09bca6a23aPUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗