—
daysbefore the first round
18 Apr 2027
FIRST-ROUND POLL WAVE
Ifop
Published results from Ifop for fieldwork conducted from 17 October 2026 to 19 October 2026. Scenarios are kept separate to preserve the exact composition of the ballots tested.
POLLSTER
Ifop
FIELDWORK
17–19 October 2026
SAMPLE
n=1,928
SCENARIOS
8
CANDIDATES TESTED
16
NO POLLING AVERAGESNO FORECASTNO VOTING ADVICE
SAME POLL · DIFFERENT BALLOTSVARIATION ACROSS PUBLISHED SCENARIOS
OPEN
SAME POLL · DIFFERENT BALLOTS
VARIATION ACROSS PUBLISHED SCENARIOS
Nathalie Arthaud · TESTED IN 8 SCENARIOS0 %–0.5 % · Δ 0.5 pts
Jean-Luc Mélenchon · TESTED IN 8 SCENARIOS15 %–20 % · Δ 5 pts
Fabien Roussel · TESTED IN 6 SCENARIOS2 %–3 % · Δ 1 pts
Marine Tondelier · TESTED IN 6 SCENARIOS2.5 %–3 % · Δ 0.5 pts
Raphaël Glucksmann · TESTED IN 7 SCENARIOS12 %–16 % · Δ 4 pts
Gabriel Attal · TESTED IN 6 SCENARIOS4 %–13 % · Δ 9 pts
Édouard Philippe · TESTED IN 7 SCENARIOS12 %–16 % · Δ 4 pts
David Lisnard · TESTED IN 2 SCENARIOS5.5 %–7 % · Δ 1.5 pts
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan · TESTED IN 8 SCENARIOS1.5 %–2.5 % · Δ 1 pts
Marine Le Pen · TESTED IN 8 SCENARIOS34 %–38 % · Δ 4 pts
Éric Zemmour · TESTED IN 8 SCENARIOS3 %–3.5 % · Δ 0.5 pts
Bruno Retailleau · TESTED IN 7 SCENARIOS5 %–7.5 % · Δ 2.5 pts
François Ruffin · TESTED IN 2 SCENARIOS1.5 %–2 % · Δ 0.5 pts
PUBLISHED RESULTS
WAVE SCENARIOS
8 SCENARIOS
SCENARIO 1COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Gabriel Attal, Édouard Philippe, David Lisnard, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
SCENARIO 1COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Gabriel Attal, Édouard Philippe, David Lisnard, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 0.5 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 15.5 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 2 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 3 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 13 % |
| Gabriel Attal | 5 % |
| Édouard Philippe | 13 % |
| David Lisnard | 7 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 2 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 36 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 3 % |
EVENT ID: 8fe53598df7beccd2a35b46ae6f8560e16c6f801843378505609a6d2a0d68bc7PUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 2COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Gabriel Attal, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
SCENARIO 2COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Gabriel Attal, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 0.5 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 16 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 2 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 3 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 16 % |
| Gabriel Attal | 13 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 7 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 1.5 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 38 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 3 % |
EVENT ID: 944f7fabf47b3a9e40dc7c862c16c0c72db61878ae0a6e00b9cb5fbf84c84fb9PUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 3COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, François Ruffin, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Gabriel Attal, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour, Natacha Polony
SCENARIO 3COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, François Ruffin, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Gabriel Attal, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour, Natacha Polony
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 0.5 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 15 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 2 % |
| François Ruffin | 2 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 3 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 12 % |
| Gabriel Attal | 6 % |
| Édouard Philippe | 12 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 6 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 2 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 35 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 3.5 % |
| Natacha Polony | 1 % |
EVENT ID: 458cb1a84a083ed5be2c5275b0e20fe0988fab911b9090ae7a5cc0611b4f642ePUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 4COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Gabriel Attal, Édouard Philippe, David Lisnard, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour, François Ruffin, Dominique de Villepin
SCENARIO 4COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Gabriel Attal, Édouard Philippe, David Lisnard, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour, François Ruffin, Dominique de Villepin
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 0 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 15 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 2 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 2.5 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 12 % |
| Gabriel Attal | 4 % |
| Édouard Philippe | 12 % |
| David Lisnard | 5.5 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 5.5 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 1.5 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 34 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 3 % |
| François Ruffin | 1.5 % |
| Dominique de Villepin | 1.5 % |
EVENT ID: a6d09b740934d4b95164c89ddd27edaede1ed2dff16d0b139b5924657217b03cPUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 5COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Raphaël Glucksmann, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
SCENARIO 5COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Raphaël Glucksmann, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 0.5 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 18 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 16 % |
| Édouard Philippe | 16 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 6.5 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 2.5 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 37 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 3.5 % |
EVENT ID: 7679a530045044d6cad8cbb16edc2234d5611b709ef8d874f67356501840beedPUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 6COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Gabriel Attal, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
SCENARIO 6COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Gabriel Attal, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 0.5 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 16.5 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 3 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 3 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 13.5 % |
| Gabriel Attal | 5 % |
| Édouard Philippe | 12 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 5 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 2 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 36 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 3.5 % |
EVENT ID: 0351425b11831a87a3d54045c23ff74de50f8558e935b148558104eb9fa40a4bPUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 7COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
SCENARIO 7COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 0.5 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 16.5 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 2.5 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 3 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 14 % |
| Édouard Philippe | 15 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 7.5 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 1.5 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 36 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 3.5 % |
EVENT ID: 29fb575d9bdfa7623e1d35a64c237db04c12fb0c995b7d5508ae20be0f2c5254PUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 8COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, François Hollande, Gabriel Attal, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
SCENARIO 8COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, François Hollande, Gabriel Attal, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 0.5 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 20 % |
| François Hollande | 10 % |
| Gabriel Attal | 6.5 % |
| Édouard Philippe | 14 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 6 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 2 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 38 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 3 % |
EVENT ID: 9f33fd416a66b1ed0a57260cd84fbe566de7763c32ac5aca10287dff04cbc30fPUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
TABLE 6 OF 8 IN THE ORIGINAL PDFSOURCE ONLYIfop / LCI, Le Figaro et Sud Radio
TABLE 6 OF 8 IN THE ORIGINAL PDFSOURCE ONLY
Ifop / LCI, Le Figaro et Sud Radio
| TESTED CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED RESULT (%) |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | – |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 15 |
| Fabien Roussel | 2 |
| François Ruffin | 1,5 |
| Marine Tondelier | 2,5 |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 12 |
| Gabriel Attal | 4 |
| Edouard Philippe | 12 |
| Dominique de Villepin | 1,5 |
| Bruno Retailleau | 5,5 |
| David Lisnard | 5,5 |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 1,5 |
| Marine Le Pen | 34 |
| Éric Zemmour | 3 |
Source evidence only: this table adds no numerical observation. The eight numerical cards are unchanged; their order differs from the PDF. View retained numerical card 4 (0% for Arthaud).
Literal values; a dash is not zero, <1% is not an exact score.ORIGINAL PDF ↗