—
daysbefore the first round
18 Apr 2027
FIRST-ROUND POLL WAVE
Ipsos
Published results from Ipsos for fieldwork conducted from 21 October 2026 to 22 October 2026. Scenarios are kept separate to preserve the exact composition of the ballots tested.
POLLSTER
Ipsos
FIELDWORK
21–22 October 2026
SAMPLE
n=1,500
SCENARIOS
4
CANDIDATES TESTED
12
NO POLLING AVERAGESNO FORECASTNO VOTING ADVICE
SAME POLL · DIFFERENT BALLOTSVARIATION ACROSS PUBLISHED SCENARIOS
OPEN
SAME POLL · DIFFERENT BALLOTS
VARIATION ACROSS PUBLISHED SCENARIOS
Nathalie Arthaud · TESTED IN 4 SCENARIOS0.5 %–0.5 % · Δ 0 pts
Jean-Luc Mélenchon · TESTED IN 4 SCENARIOS17 %–17 % · Δ 0 pts
Fabien Roussel · TESTED IN 4 SCENARIOS2 %–2.5 % · Δ 0.5 pts
Marine Tondelier · TESTED IN 4 SCENARIOS3.5 %–3.5 % · Δ 0 pts
Raphaël Glucksmann · TESTED IN 4 SCENARIOS13 %–15.5 % · Δ 2.5 pts
Gabriel Attal · TESTED IN 2 SCENARIOS4 %–9.5 % · Δ 5.5 pts
Bruno Retailleau · TESTED IN 4 SCENARIOS5.5 %–11.5 % · Δ 6 pts
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan · TESTED IN 4 SCENARIOS1.5 %–2 % · Δ 0.5 pts
Marine Le Pen · TESTED IN 4 SCENARIOS32 %–33.5 % · Δ 1.5 pts
Éric Zemmour · TESTED IN 4 SCENARIOS4 %–4.5 % · Δ 0.5 pts
Édouard Philippe · TESTED IN 3 SCENARIOS13 %–15 % · Δ 2 pts
PUBLISHED RESULTS
WAVE SCENARIOS
4 SCENARIOS
SCENARIO 1COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Gabriel Attal, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
SCENARIO 1COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Gabriel Attal, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 0.5 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 17 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 2.5 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 3.5 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 15.5 % |
| Gabriel Attal | 9.5 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 11.5 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 2 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 33.5 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 4.5 % |
EVENT ID: f4e145d8024d7667e5d9a6182beba8e030047ca4c08ca231ea893e35355fc5d2PUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 2COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Édouard Philippe, David Lisnard, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
SCENARIO 2COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Édouard Philippe, David Lisnard, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 0.5 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 17 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 2.5 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 3.5 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 13 % |
| Édouard Philippe | 14 % |
| David Lisnard | 6.5 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 5.5 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 1.5 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 32 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 4 % |
EVENT ID: 95220baf6bce8017591c4f0276eff4da5aefba9b552fec1aba1187d95bd4d79bPUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 3COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Gabriel Attal, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
SCENARIO 3COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Gabriel Attal, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 0.5 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 17 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 2 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 3.5 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 13 % |
| Gabriel Attal | 4 % |
| Édouard Philippe | 13 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 7.5 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 1.5 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 33.5 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 4.5 % |
EVENT ID: f8af12019e6fa31d9734aa9b412518a48a1773ef07b2fe223624f06494ded0ddPUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗
SCENARIO 4COMPLETE SCENARIOFIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
SCENARIO 4COMPLETE SCENARIO
FIRST ROUND — Nathalie Arthaud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Raphaël Glucksmann, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour
| CANDIDATE | PUBLISHED SCORE |
|---|---|
| Nathalie Arthaud | 0.5 % |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 17 % |
| Fabien Roussel | 2 % |
| Marine Tondelier | 3.5 % |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 14 % |
| Édouard Philippe | 15 % |
| Bruno Retailleau | 8 % |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 2 % |
| Marine Le Pen | 33.5 % |
| Éric Zemmour | 4.5 % |
EVENT ID: 20fb8853293687e626534dccc98b481dcf87f70c6b53e0d1d2da85ac38773017PUBLISHED TOTAL: 100 %SOURCE ↗