FRANCE 2027 SIGNAL LABSource-linked signals from the French presidential race.
—
daysbefore the first round
18 Apr 2027
Illustrated portrait of François Hollande
CANDIDATE DOSSIER

François Hollande

Descriptive summary of data published by France 2027 Signal Lab. No average · no forecast · no voting advice.
POTENTIAL CANDIDACYStatus verified as of 30 Jul 2026
POLLING DATA
NOT OBSERVED
no observation in the latest wave
MEDIA PULSE
0.4%
share of election + campaign coverage, not a measure of support
ARTICLES
1
articles · 1 active day
PUBLISHERS
1
in the current 7-day window

NEWS

Latest source-linked articles, events and changes.

LATEST NEWS

5 articles

EVENTS

5 récents
OTHER

François Hollande à l’ouverture solennelle du centenaire de l’UNCCAS

Maison de la Radio et de la Musique · Paris

UNCCAS ↗
OTHER

« À quoi servent l’histoire et la mémoire dans les discours politiques ? » avec François Hollande

Château Royal de Blois · Blois

Les Rendez-vous de l’histoire ↗
OTHER

Conférence de François Hollande à Brunoy

Salle des fêtes · Brunoy

Ville de Brunoy ↗
OTHER

Séance de dédicace de François Hollande à Ussel

Ussel

Ville d'Ussel ↗
OTHER

« La gauche peut-elle encore unir ? » avec François Hollande

Fondation Jean-Jaurès · Paris

Fondation Jean-Jaurès ↗

WHAT CHANGED

0 items

POLLS

Published scores by hypothesis. No average, smoothing or interpolation.

LATEST WAVE

Not observed in the latest waveNo score is published for this candidacy in the latest reference wave. Published historical observations remain available when they exist.

FIRST-ROUND POLL HISTORY

Each mark represents a first-round poll observation grouped by pollster, fieldwork dates and sample size. A point shows the exact selected-hypothesis score when available. A vertical bar shows the published range across hypotheses. Horizontal position follows the fieldwork end date. No average, smoothing or interpolation.
22 observations

From 16 Apr 2024 to 19 Oct 2026. Enable JavaScript for the interactive visualization.

Published poll waves · 22
  1. Ifop · 17–19 Oct 2026
  2. YouGov · 12–15 Oct 2026
  3. Harris · 5–8 Oct 2026
  4. Ifop · 25–29 Sep 2026
  5. Harris · 22–24 Sep 2026
  6. YouGov · 17–21 Sep 2026
  7. Cluster17 · 15–16 Sep 2026
  8. OpinionWay · 9–10 Sep 2026
  9. Harris · 8–10 Sep 2026
  10. Elabe · 26–28 Aug 2026
  11. Ifop · 24–25 Aug 2026
  12. Harris Interactive · 18–19 Aug 2026
  13. Elabe · 9–10 Jul 2026
  14. Harris Interactive · 7–8 Jul 2026
  15. Ifop · 22–24 Jun 2026
  16. Ipsos · 27–28 May 2026
  17. Ifop · 26–28 May 2026
  18. Elabe · 25–27 Mar 2026
  19. Elabe · 2–4 Apr 2025
  20. Ifop · 6–9 Dec 2024
  21. Ifop · 6–9 Sep 2024
  22. Ifop · 16–18 Apr 2024

TESTED RUNOFFS

For each runoff, France 2027 Signal Lab shows at most the three most recent observations, ordered by fieldwork end date. Older observations remain in the source corpus. No average or interpolation is calculated.
1 opponent · 3 observations shown

Marine Le Pen

4 tests total · 3 most recent shown
Ifop17 Oct 2026 — 19 Oct 2026
Sample: 1,928
41%59%
Source ↗
YouGov12 Oct 2026 — 15 Oct 2026
Sample: 1,094
45%55%
Source ↗
YouGov17 Sep 2026 — 21 Sep 2026
Sample: 1,103
44%56%
Source ↗

MEDIA PULSE & COVERAGE

Visibility in monitored coverage: volume, publishers, composition and concentration.

MEDIA PULSE

Media Pulse measures the share of articles associated with François Hollande in the election and campaign scopes. It does not measure support, approval, sentiment or voting intention.
last 7 published days
0.4%SHARE OF ELECTION + CAMPAIGN COVERAGE

Share of articles associated with François Hollande in the election and campaign scopes.

1articles
1publishers
1story clusters
1active days

RECENT COVERAGE TREND

Daily share of election + campaign articles associated with François Hollande. The series covers 29 complete UTC days and does not measure support, approval, sentiment or voting intention.
29 complete days · UTC

Published history from 25 Sep 2026 to 23 Oct 2026.

COVERAGE STRUCTURE

SCOPE

ELECTION0.0%
0 articles
CAMPAIGN100.0%
1 article

MENTION PLACEMENT

In headline0
Summary only1

TOP PUBLISHER

LCP — Actualités

TOP PUBLISHERS

1 publisher
  1. LCP — Actualités1 article · 100.0%

TOP STORY CLUSTERS

1 cluster
Quels sont les enjeux du congrès du Rassemblement national, qui se tient ce week-end à Orléans?1 article · 1 publisher

AGENDA & ISSUES

Topics associated with this candidacy in monitored coverage. They describe the composition of media coverage, not the monitored person's priorities or positions.

TOPIC PROFILE · 30D

23 associations · 30 days
  • PRIMARIES & PARTY STRATEGY87.0%
    PRIMARIES & PARTY STRATEGYProfile share: 87.0%Associations: 20Period: last 30 days
  • CANDIDACIES & ENDORSEMENTS13.0%
    CANDIDACIES & ENDORSEMENTSProfile share: 13.0%Associations: 3Period: last 30 days
  • LEGAL ELIGIBILITY0.0%
    LEGAL ELIGIBILITYProfile share: 0.0%Associations: 0Period: last 30 days
  • RULES & CALENDAR0.0%
    RULES & CALENDARProfile share: 0.0%Associations: 0Period: last 30 days
  • POSITIONING & INTEGRITY0.0%
    POSITIONING & INTEGRITYProfile share: 0.0%Associations: 0Period: last 30 days
  • POLLING & RACE NARRATIVES0.0%
    POLLING & RACE NARRATIVESProfile share: 0.0%Associations: 0Period: last 30 days

TOPIC PROFILE · SINCE START

14 associations · 86 days · 2026-07-31 → 2026-10-24
  • Work, purchasing power and pensions64.3%
    Work, purchasing power and pensionsProfile share: 64.3%Associations: 9Period: since tracking began
  • Economy and public finances14.3%
    Economy and public financesProfile share: 14.3%Associations: 2Period: since tracking began
  • Immigration, identity and secularism14.3%
    Immigration, identity and secularismProfile share: 14.3%Associations: 2Period: since tracking began
  • Security and justice7.1%
    Security and justiceProfile share: 7.1%Associations: 1Period: since tracking began
  • Health, education and public services0.0%
    Health, education and public servicesProfile share: 0.0%Associations: 0Period: since tracking began
  • Climate, energy and agriculture0.0%
    Climate, energy and agricultureProfile share: 0.0%Associations: 0Period: since tracking began
  • Europe, defence and foreign affairs0.0%
    Europe, defence and foreign affairsProfile share: 0.0%Associations: 0Period: since tracking began
  • Institutions, democracy and territories0.0%
    Institutions, democracy and territoriesProfile share: 0.0%Associations: 0Period: since tracking began

TOPIC EVOLUTION

Daily counts of topic associations, with no average, smoothing or interpolation.
4 main topics

Daily series from 31 Jul 2026 to 24 Oct 2026.

SCRUTINY

Published reviews and the source confirming candidacy status.

CLAIMS UNDER SCRUTINY

3 reviews
BY — claim recorded as attributed to this candidacyABOUT — this candidacy is mentioned; the claim is attributed to another person
  1. BY

    À l'époque où la retraite à 60 ans a été instaurée, l'espérance de vie était en France de seulement 70 ans ?

    En partie vrai

    TF1 InfoSource ↗
  2. ABOUT

    Le logo de la Jeune Garde était sur les documents de campagne de François Hollande, aux législatives de 2024

    Faux

    TF1 InfoSource ↗
  3. ABOUT

    Les deux seules périodes récentes où les déficits ont été réduits, c'est sous Lionel Jospin et sous François Hollande

    Plutôt faux

    TF1 InfoSource ↗

The number of published reviews does not measure a political figure's overall accuracy.

CANDIDACY STATUS

POTENTIAL CANDIDACY
Status confirmed

François Hollande, un retour pour la présidentielle de 2027 semé d’embûches

This source documents the candidacy status recorded by France 2027 Signal Lab.

Source
Le Monde
Source date
13 Feb 2026
Status verified as of
30 Jul 2026
Open source ↗

PUBLIC ATTENTION

Pageviews of the French-language Wikipedia article. This signal does not measure support.

WIKIPEDIA PAGEVIEWS

Wikipedia pageviews measure visits to the article. They do not measure support, sentiment, approval or voting intention.
pageviews
11,324last 7 days
49,649last 28 days
1,7547-day peak
4,433period peak
Open Wikipedia article ↗

PAGEVIEW HISTORY

Daily pageviews of the French-language Wikipedia article. Repeat visits may be included.
90 days

PUBLIC SIGNALS

These indicators come from independent sources and do not measure the same thing. They are neither a popularity score nor voting intention.

Polymarket

Election winner, including any runoff. Prediction market — not voting intention and not an FR27 forecast. Third-party value, not calculated by FR27. Participants are not a representative sample of French voters. Liquidity and trading conditions may influence prices. FR27 does not combine this signal with polling, Wikipedia, media, agenda or other evidence into a synthetic score. Absence does not mean 0%. Change compares the current value with the latest valid observation at or before seven days earlier. Insufficient history produces no change or chart. Change in percentage points. Up to 30 days of actual time-spaced observations; missing UTC dates break the line, short runs use dots, the current value is ringed. Sparse coverage hides the chart, not the change. Vertical scale spans at least 5 percentage points. Each chart has its own scale: shapes cannot be compared across platforms.

FR27 observation : . Check freshness (48h)

Prediction market

2.5%

Implied probability

Polymarket ↗

YouTube

Reviewed personal/campaign channel established from first-party sources and pinned to a stable channel ID. Official-channel subscribers, not electoral support. YouTube rounds subscriber counts down to three significant figures. Uploads use video publication times within the seven days before observation, including both boundaries, only when the full playlist is verified. Incomplete activity does not provide an exact count. Change compares the current value with the latest valid observation at or before seven days earlier. Insufficient history produces no change or chart. Subscriber-count change inherits YouTube’s rounding. Up to 30 days of actual time-spaced observations; missing UTC dates break the line, short runs use dots, the current value is ringed. Sparse coverage hides the chart, not the change. Each chart has its own scale: shapes cannot be compared across platforms.

FR27 observation : . Check freshness (48h)

Channel audience

Official channel not established

Bluesky

Reviewed personal/campaign account established from first-party sources. The DID is the persistent identity; the handle may change. Official-account followers on Bluesky, not voters or a measure of support. Public-web visibility opt-outs are respected. Change compares the current value with the latest valid observation at or before seven days earlier. Insufficient history produces no change or chart. Change in Bluesky follower count. Up to 30 days of actual time-spaced observations; missing UTC dates break the line, short runs use dots, the current value is ringed. Sparse coverage hides the chart, not the change. Each chart has its own scale: shapes cannot be compared across platforms.

FR27 observation : . Check freshness (48h)

Account audience

Official account not established

EVENTS

Published campaign events associated with this candidacy.

UPCOMING EVENTS

as of 24 Oct 2026
No verified upcoming eventsEvents will appear here when an eligible source is published.

RECENT EVENTS

recent history
OTHER

François Hollande à l’ouverture solennelle du centenaire de l’UNCCAS

Maison de la Radio et de la Musique · Paris

UNCCAS ↗
OTHER

« À quoi servent l’histoire et la mémoire dans les discours politiques ? » avec François Hollande

Château Royal de Blois · Blois

Les Rendez-vous de l’histoire ↗
OTHER

Conférence de François Hollande à Brunoy

Salle des fêtes · Brunoy

Ville de Brunoy ↗
OTHER

Séance de dédicace de François Hollande à Ussel

Ussel

Ville d'Ussel ↗
OTHER

« La gauche peut-elle encore unir ? » avec François Hollande

Fondation Jean-Jaurès · Paris

Fondation Jean-Jaurès ↗
OTHER

François Hollande à la Fête de la Rose de Frangy-en-Bresse

Frangy-en-Bresse

Info Chalon ↗
DEBATE

Débat entre François Hollande et Édouard Philippe sur LCI

Sens

TF1 Info ↗