FRANCE 2027 SIGNAL LABSource-linked signals from the French presidential race.
—
daysbefore the first round
18 Apr 2027
Illustrated portrait of Marine Tondelier
CANDIDATE DOSSIER

Marine Tondelier

Descriptive summary of data published by France 2027 Signal Lab. No average · no forecast · no voting advice.
DECLARED CANDIDACYStatus verified as of 12 Oct 2026
POLLING DATA
3,5–3.5% · 4 hypotheses
Ipsos · fieldwork from 21 Oct 2026 to 22 Oct 2026
MEDIA PULSE
4.5%
share of election + campaign coverage, not a measure of support
ARTICLES
11
articles · 5 active days
PUBLISHERS
3
in the current 7-day window

NEWS

Latest source-linked articles, events and changes.

LATEST NEWS

5 articles

EVENTS

5 récents
OTHER

Marine Tondelier au festival « Confidences » de Libération

Maison des Métallos · Paris

Ville de Paris ↗
OTHER

Marine Tondelier et Fabien Roussel participent aux mobilisations du 17 octobre

Location not published

AFP via Boursorama ↗
VISIT

Marine Tondelier au Mondial de l’Automobile

Paris Expo Porte de Versailles · Paris

AFP via TradingView ↗
OTHER

Marine Tondelier invitée de « L’interview d’Amélie Carrouër » sur LCI

LCI

TF1 Info ↗
OTHER

Réunion de crise à l’Élysée sur la situation internationale, la sécurité et l’énergie

Palais de l’Élysée · Paris

AFP ↗

WHAT CHANGED

1 items
CAMPAIGN

Présidentielle 2027 : Yannick Jadot accuse Marine Tondelier d’être « le trait d’union des partis de gauche » et soutient Raphaël Glucksmann

Le Parisien ↗

POLLS

Published scores by hypothesis. No average, smoothing or interpolation.

LATEST WAVE

3,5–3.5%4 hypotheses

Range of published scores for Marine Tondelier across the hypotheses tested in the latest wave. France 2027 Signal Lab does not calculate an average.

Pollster
Ipsos
Sample
1,500
Fieldwork
21 Oct 2026 — 22 Oct 2026
View poll source ↗

FIRST-ROUND POLL HISTORY

Each mark represents a first-round poll observation grouped by pollster, fieldwork dates and sample size. A point shows the exact selected-hypothesis score when available. A vertical bar shows the published range across hypotheses. Horizontal position follows the fieldwork end date. No average, smoothing or interpolation.
60 observations

From 30 Mar 2023 to 22 Oct 2026. Enable JavaScript for the interactive visualization.

Published poll waves · 60
  1. Ipsos · 21–22 Oct 2026
  2. Harris · 19–21 Oct 2026
  3. Ifop · 17–19 Oct 2026
  4. Elabe · 14–16 Oct 2026
  5. Elabe · 14–16 Oct 2026
  6. Cluster17 · 14–15 Oct 2026
  7. YouGov · 12–15 Oct 2026
  8. OpinionWay · 13–14 Oct 2026
  9. Ifop · 12–14 Oct 2026
  10. Harris · 5–8 Oct 2026
  11. Odoxa · 24 Sep–7 Oct 2026
  12. Ifop · 25–29 Sep 2026
  13. Harris · 22–24 Sep 2026
  14. YouGov · 17–21 Sep 2026
  15. Cluster17 · 15–16 Sep 2026
  16. Ifop · 9–11 Sep 2026
  17. OpinionWay · 9–10 Sep 2026
  18. Harris · 8–10 Sep 2026
  19. OpinionWay · 8–9 Sep 2026
  20. Ipsos · 3–9 Sep 2026
  21. OpinionWay · 2–3 Sep 2026
  22. Ipsos · 31 Aug–2 Sep 2026
  23. Cluster17 · 31 Aug–1 Sep 2026
  24. Elabe · 26–28 Aug 2026
  25. Ifop · 24–25 Aug 2026
  26. Harris Interactive · 18–19 Aug 2026
  27. Cluster17 · 22–24 Jul 2026
  28. Elabe · 9–10 Jul 2026
  29. OpinionWay · 8–9 Jul 2026
  30. Ifop · 7–8 Jul 2026
  31. Harris Interactive · 7–8 Jul 2026
  32. Harris Interactive · 7–8 Jul 2026
  33. Ifop · 22–24 Jun 2026
  34. OpinionWay · 10–11 Jun 2026
  35. Ipsos · 27–28 May 2026
  36. Ifop · 26–28 May 2026
  37. Harris Interactive · 25–27 May 2026
  38. Harris Interactive · 28–30 Apr 2026
  39. Harris Interactive · 22 Apr 2026
  40. Elabe · 25–27 Mar 2026
  41. Harris Interactive · 22 Mar 2026
  42. Ifop · 26–27 Feb 2026
  43. Elabe · 30–31 Oct 2025
  44. Elabe · 30–31 Oct 2025
  45. Harris Interactive · 7 Oct 2025
  46. Ifop · 19–20 May 2025
  47. Harris Interactive · 19 May 2025
  48. Ifop · 29–30 Apr 2025
  49. Odoxa · 23–24 Apr 2025
  50. Ifop/Hexagone · 11–18 Apr 2025
  51. Elabe · 2–4 Apr 2025
  52. Ifop · 26–27 Mar 2025
  53. Ifop · 6–9 Dec 2024
  54. Ifop · 6–9 Sep 2024
  55. Harris Interactive · 7–8 Jul 2024
  56. Ifop · 16–18 Apr 2024
  57. Ifop · 31 Jan–1 Feb 2024
  58. Ifop · 9–10 Jan 2024
  59. Ifop · 24–25 Oct 2023
  60. Ifop · 30–31 Mar 2023

TESTED RUNOFFS

For each runoff, France 2027 Signal Lab shows at most the three most recent observations, ordered by fieldwork end date. Older observations remain in the source corpus. No average or interpolation is calculated.
0 opponents · 0 observations shown
No runoff observedNo runoff configuration associated with this candidacy is published in the monitored corpus.

MEDIA PULSE & COVERAGE

Visibility in monitored coverage: volume, publishers, composition and concentration.

MEDIA PULSE

Media Pulse measures the share of articles associated with Marine Tondelier in the election and campaign scopes. It does not measure support, approval, sentiment or voting intention.
last 7 published days
4.5%SHARE OF ELECTION + CAMPAIGN COVERAGE

Share of articles associated with Marine Tondelier in the election and campaign scopes.

11articles
3publishers
11story clusters
5active days

RECENT COVERAGE TREND

Daily share of election + campaign articles associated with Marine Tondelier. The series covers 29 complete UTC days and does not measure support, approval, sentiment or voting intention.
29 complete days · UTC

Published history from 25 Sep 2026 to 23 Oct 2026.

COVERAGE STRUCTURE

SCOPE

ELECTION90.9%
10 articles
CAMPAIGN9.1%
1 article

MENTION PLACEMENT

In headline9
Summary only2

TOP PUBLISHER

BFMTV — Politique

TOP PUBLISHERS

3 publishers
  1. BFMTV — Politique9 articles · 81.8%
  2. Franceinfo Politique1 article · 9.1%
  3. LCP — Actualités1 article · 9.1%

TOP STORY CLUSTERS

8 clusters
"Il n'y a pas de gagnant de la journée de samedi, il n'y a que des perdants", souligne Marine Tondelier après les violences dans plusieurs villes de France1 article · 1 publisher
17 octobre: "Il était plus difficile de manifester que de piller des magasins", juge Marine Tondelier, candidate Les Écologistes à l'élection présidentielle1 article · 1 publisher
Jean-Luc Mélenchon ou Raphaël Glucksmann: vers qui vont pencher les unitaires de gauche pour la présidentielle 2027?1 article · 1 publisher
Manifestations du 17 octobre: "Si vous voulez de l'apaisement social, il faut des réponses sociales," explique Marine Tondelier, candidate Les Écologistes à l'élection présidentielle1 article · 1 publisher
Manifestations du 17 octobre: Marine Tondelier, candidate Les Écologistes à l'élection présidentielle, se dit "sidérée par l'incapacité de ce gouvernement à répondre à la crise sociale"1 article · 1 publisher
Partis politiques reçus à Matignon: "On sort de cette réunion encore plus inquiets et en colère", explique Marine Tondelier, candidate Les Écologistes à l'élection présidentielle1 article · 1 publisher
Prise de parole d'Emmanuel Macron: "Il n'a pas eu un mot sur les blessés" dans les manifestations, dénonce Marine Tondelier, candidate Les Écologistes à la présidentielle1 article · 1 publisher
Présidentielle: une dynamique Mélenchon chez Les Écologistes au risque de fracturer le parti?1 article · 1 publisher

LATEST COVERAGE

11 articles

AGENDA & ISSUES

Topics associated with this candidacy in monitored coverage. They describe the composition of media coverage, not the monitored person's priorities or positions.

TOPIC PROFILE · 30D

9 associations · 30 days
  • CANDIDACIES & ENDORSEMENTS66.7%
    CANDIDACIES & ENDORSEMENTSProfile share: 66.7%Associations: 6Period: last 30 days
  • PRIMARIES & PARTY STRATEGY33.3%
    PRIMARIES & PARTY STRATEGYProfile share: 33.3%Associations: 3Period: last 30 days
  • LEGAL ELIGIBILITY0.0%
    LEGAL ELIGIBILITYProfile share: 0.0%Associations: 0Period: last 30 days
  • RULES & CALENDAR0.0%
    RULES & CALENDARProfile share: 0.0%Associations: 0Period: last 30 days
  • POSITIONING & INTEGRITY0.0%
    POSITIONING & INTEGRITYProfile share: 0.0%Associations: 0Period: last 30 days
  • POLLING & RACE NARRATIVES0.0%
    POLLING & RACE NARRATIVESProfile share: 0.0%Associations: 0Period: last 30 days

TOPIC PROFILE · SINCE START

19 associations · 86 days · 2026-07-31 → 2026-10-24
  • Climate, energy and agriculture42.1%
    Climate, energy and agricultureProfile share: 42.1%Associations: 8Period: since tracking began
  • Work, purchasing power and pensions26.3%
    Work, purchasing power and pensionsProfile share: 26.3%Associations: 5Period: since tracking began
  • Economy and public finances15.8%
    Economy and public financesProfile share: 15.8%Associations: 3Period: since tracking began
  • Europe, defence and foreign affairs10.5%
    Europe, defence and foreign affairsProfile share: 10.5%Associations: 2Period: since tracking began
  • Health, education and public services5.3%
    Health, education and public servicesProfile share: 5.3%Associations: 1Period: since tracking began
  • Immigration, identity and secularism0.0%
    Immigration, identity and secularismProfile share: 0.0%Associations: 0Period: since tracking began
  • Security and justice0.0%
    Security and justiceProfile share: 0.0%Associations: 0Period: since tracking began
  • Institutions, democracy and territories0.0%
    Institutions, democracy and territoriesProfile share: 0.0%Associations: 0Period: since tracking began

TOPIC EVOLUTION

Daily counts of topic associations, with no average, smoothing or interpolation.
4 main topics

Daily series from 31 Jul 2026 to 24 Oct 2026.

SCRUTINY

Published reviews and the source confirming candidacy status.

CLAIMS UNDER SCRUTINY

2 reviews
BY — claim recorded as attributed to this candidacyABOUT — this candidacy is mentioned; the claim is attributed to another person
  1. BY

    Le pacte Dutreil, qui facilite la transmission des entreprises familiales, est "détourné" à des fins d'optimisation fiscale

    Plutôt Vrai

    franceinfoSource ↗
  2. BY

    Pour lutter contre les ingérences étrangères, la France peut suspendre X le temps des élections

    Plutôt faux

    TF1 InfoSource ↗

The number of published reviews does not measure a political figure's overall accuracy.

CANDIDACY STATUS

DECLARED CANDIDACY
Status confirmed

Candidatures à l'élection présidentielle française de 2027

This source documents the candidacy status recorded by France 2027 Signal Lab.

Source
French Wikipedia
Source date
12 Oct 2026
Status verified as of
12 Oct 2026
Open source ↗

PUBLIC ATTENTION

Pageviews of the French-language Wikipedia article. This signal does not measure support.

WIKIPEDIA PAGEVIEWS

Wikipedia pageviews measure visits to the article. They do not measure support, sentiment, approval or voting intention.
pageviews
25,852last 7 days
72,262last 28 days
9,1327-day peak
24,834period peak
Open Wikipedia article ↗

PAGEVIEW HISTORY

Daily pageviews of the French-language Wikipedia article. Repeat visits may be included.
90 days

PUBLIC SIGNALS

These indicators come from independent sources and do not measure the same thing. They are neither a popularity score nor voting intention.

Polymarket

Election winner, including any runoff. Prediction market — not voting intention and not an FR27 forecast. Third-party value, not calculated by FR27. Participants are not a representative sample of French voters. Liquidity and trading conditions may influence prices. FR27 does not combine this signal with polling, Wikipedia, media, agenda or other evidence into a synthetic score. Absence does not mean 0%. Change compares the current value with the latest valid observation at or before seven days earlier. Insufficient history produces no change or chart. Change in percentage points. Up to 30 days of actual time-spaced observations; missing UTC dates break the line, short runs use dots, the current value is ringed. Sparse coverage hides the chart, not the change. Vertical scale spans at least 5 percentage points. Each chart has its own scale: shapes cannot be compared across platforms.

FR27 observation : . Check freshness (48h)

Prediction market

0.1%

Implied probability

Polymarket ↗

YouTube

Reviewed personal/campaign channel established from first-party sources and pinned to a stable channel ID. Official-channel subscribers, not electoral support. YouTube rounds subscriber counts down to three significant figures. Uploads use video publication times within the seven days before observation, including both boundaries, only when the full playlist is verified. Incomplete activity does not provide an exact count. Change compares the current value with the latest valid observation at or before seven days earlier. Insufficient history produces no change or chart. Subscriber-count change inherits YouTube’s rounding. Up to 30 days of actual time-spaced observations; missing UTC dates break the line, short runs use dots, the current value is ringed. Sparse coverage hides the chart, not the change. Each chart has its own scale: shapes cannot be compared across platforms.

FR27 observation : . Check freshness (48h)

Channel audience

Official channel not established

Bluesky

Reviewed personal/campaign account established from first-party sources. The DID is the persistent identity; the handle may change. Official-account followers on Bluesky, not voters or a measure of support. Public-web visibility opt-outs are respected. Change compares the current value with the latest valid observation at or before seven days earlier. Insufficient history produces no change or chart. Change in Bluesky follower count. Up to 30 days of actual time-spaced observations; missing UTC dates break the line, short runs use dots, the current value is ringed. Sparse coverage hides the chart, not the change. Each chart has its own scale: shapes cannot be compared across platforms.

FR27 observation : . Check freshness (48h)

Account audience

54,254

Followers

@marinetondelier.fr

Bluesky profile ↗

EVENTS

Published campaign events associated with this candidacy.

UPCOMING EVENTS

as of 24 Oct 2026
No verified upcoming eventsEvents will appear here when an eligible source is published.

RECENT EVENTS

recent history
OTHER

Marine Tondelier au festival « Confidences » de Libération

Maison des Métallos · Paris

Ville de Paris ↗
OTHER

Marine Tondelier et Fabien Roussel participent aux mobilisations du 17 octobre

Location not published

AFP via Boursorama ↗
VISIT

Marine Tondelier au Mondial de l’Automobile

Paris Expo Porte de Versailles · Paris

AFP via TradingView ↗
OTHER

Marine Tondelier invitée de « L’interview d’Amélie Carrouër » sur LCI

LCI

TF1 Info ↗
OTHER

Réunion de crise à l’Élysée sur la situation internationale, la sécurité et l’énergie

Palais de l’Élysée · Paris

AFP ↗
OTHER

Discours de Marine Tondelier à la Fête de l’Humanité

Fête de l’Humanité

Le Monde ↗
DEBATE

Grand débat de la campagne présidentielle 2027 sur LCI

Court Philippe-Chatrier, Roland-Garros

TF1 Info ↗
RÉUNION PUBLIQUE

Soirée « Pour l’écologie, pour l’union » aux Journées d’été des Écologistes

Grande scène

Les Écologistes ↗