FRANCE 2027 SIGNAL LABSource-linked signals from the French presidential race.
—
daysbefore the first round
18 Apr 2027
Illustrated portrait of Nathalie Arthaud
CANDIDATE DOSSIER

Nathalie Arthaud

Descriptive summary of data published by France 2027 Signal Lab. No average · no forecast · no voting advice.
DECLARED CANDIDACYStatus verified as of 30 Jul 2026
POLLING DATA
0,5–0.5% · 4 hypotheses
Ipsos · fieldwork from 21 Oct 2026 to 22 Oct 2026
MEDIA PULSE
3.3%
share of election + campaign coverage, not a measure of support
ARTICLES
8
articles · 6 active days
PUBLISHERS
8
in the current 7-day window

NEWS

Latest source-linked articles, events and changes.

LATEST NEWS

5 articles

EVENTS

5 à venir
OTHER

Fête régionale Lutte ouvrière de Mantes-Limay avec Nathalie Arthaud et Jean-Pierre Mercier

Salle Christiane Faure · Limay

Lutte ouvrière ↗
RÉUNION PUBLIQUE

Réunion publique de Nathalie Arthaud à La Roche-sur-Yon

Maison de quartier Pont Morineau · La Roche-sur-Yon

Lutte ouvrière ↗
RÉUNION PUBLIQUE

Réunion publique avec Nathalie Arthaud à Cholet

Salle de la Bruyère · Cholet

Lutte ouvrière ↗
OTHER

Débat avec Nathalie Arthaud à la Fête de Besançon

Grand Kursaal · Besançon

Lutte ouvrière ↗
RÉUNION PUBLIQUE

Réunion publique avec Nathalie Arthaud à Belfort

Maison du peuple · Belfort

Lutte ouvrière ↗

WHAT CHANGED

0 items

POLLS

Published scores by hypothesis. No average, smoothing or interpolation.

LATEST WAVE

0,5–0.5%4 hypotheses

Range of published scores for Nathalie Arthaud across the hypotheses tested in the latest wave. France 2027 Signal Lab does not calculate an average.

Pollster
Ipsos
Sample
1,500
Fieldwork
21 Oct 2026 — 22 Oct 2026
View poll source ↗

FIRST-ROUND POLL HISTORY

Each mark represents a first-round poll observation grouped by pollster, fieldwork dates and sample size. A point shows the exact selected-hypothesis score when available. A vertical bar shows the published range across hypotheses. Horizontal position follows the fieldwork end date. No average, smoothing or interpolation.
72 observations

From 25 Oct 2022 to 22 Oct 2026. Enable JavaScript for the interactive visualization.

Published poll waves · 72
  1. Ipsos · 21–22 Oct 2026
  2. Harris · 19–21 Oct 2026
  3. Ifop · 17–19 Oct 2026
  4. Elabe · 14–16 Oct 2026
  5. Elabe · 14–16 Oct 2026
  6. Cluster17 · 14–15 Oct 2026
  7. YouGov · 12–15 Oct 2026
  8. OpinionWay · 13–14 Oct 2026
  9. Ifop · 12–14 Oct 2026
  10. Harris · 5–8 Oct 2026
  11. Odoxa · 24 Sep–7 Oct 2026
  12. Ifop · 25–29 Sep 2026
  13. Harris · 22–24 Sep 2026
  14. YouGov · 17–21 Sep 2026
  15. Cluster17 · 15–16 Sep 2026
  16. Ifop · 9–11 Sep 2026
  17. OpinionWay · 9–10 Sep 2026
  18. Harris · 8–10 Sep 2026
  19. OpinionWay · 8–9 Sep 2026
  20. Ipsos · 3–9 Sep 2026
  21. OpinionWay · 2–3 Sep 2026
  22. Ipsos · 31 Aug–2 Sep 2026
  23. Cluster17 · 31 Aug–1 Sep 2026
  24. Elabe · 26–28 Aug 2026
  25. Ifop · 24–25 Aug 2026
  26. Harris Interactive · 18–19 Aug 2026
  27. Cluster17 · 22–24 Jul 2026
  28. Elabe · 9–10 Jul 2026
  29. OpinionWay · 8–9 Jul 2026
  30. Ifop · 7–8 Jul 2026
  31. Harris Interactive · 7–8 Jul 2026
  32. Harris Interactive · 7–8 Jul 2026
  33. Ifop · 22–24 Jun 2026
  34. OpinionWay · 10–11 Jun 2026
  35. Ipsos · 27–28 May 2026
  36. Ifop · 26–28 May 2026
  37. Harris Interactive · 25–27 May 2026
  38. Harris Interactive · 28–30 Apr 2026
  39. Harris Interactive · 22 Apr 2026
  40. Elabe · 25–27 Mar 2026
  41. Harris Interactive · 22 Mar 2026
  42. Ifop · 26–27 Feb 2026
  43. Elabe · 30–31 Oct 2025
  44. Elabe · 30–31 Oct 2025
  45. Harris Interactive · 7 Oct 2025
  46. Cluster17 · 30 Sep–1 Oct 2025
  47. Cluster17 · 30 Sep–1 Oct 2025
  48. Ifop · 24–25 Sep 2025
  49. Ifop · 19–20 May 2025
  50. Harris Interactive · 19 May 2025
  51. Ifop · 29–30 Apr 2025
  52. Odoxa · 23–24 Apr 2025
  53. Ifop/Hexagone · 11–18 Apr 2025
  54. Elabe · 2–4 Apr 2025
  55. Ifop · 26–27 Mar 2025
  56. Ifop · 6–9 Dec 2024
  57. OpinionWay · 11–12 Sep 2024
  58. Ifop · 6–9 Sep 2024
  59. Harris Interactive · 7–8 Jul 2024
  60. Ifop · 16–18 Apr 2024
  61. Ifop · 31 Jan–1 Feb 2024
  62. Ifop · 9–10 Jan 2024
  63. Ifop · 24–25 Oct 2023
  64. Cluster17 · 18–20 Oct 2023
  65. Harris Interactive · 1–4 Sep 2023
  66. OpinionWay · 12–13 Apr 2023
  67. Harris Interactive · 6–7 Apr 2023
  68. Odoxa · 5–6 Apr 2023
  69. Elabe · 3–5 Apr 2023
  70. Ifop · 30–31 Mar 2023
  71. Cluster17 · 4–6 Nov 2022
  72. Ifop · 25–26 Oct 2022

TESTED RUNOFFS

For each runoff, France 2027 Signal Lab shows at most the three most recent observations, ordered by fieldwork end date. Older observations remain in the source corpus. No average or interpolation is calculated.
0 opponents · 0 observations shown
No runoff observedNo runoff configuration associated with this candidacy is published in the monitored corpus.

MEDIA PULSE & COVERAGE

Visibility in monitored coverage: volume, publishers, composition and concentration.

MEDIA PULSE

Media Pulse measures the share of articles associated with Nathalie Arthaud in the election and campaign scopes. It does not measure support, approval, sentiment or voting intention.
last 7 published days
3.3%SHARE OF ELECTION + CAMPAIGN COVERAGE

Share of articles associated with Nathalie Arthaud in the election and campaign scopes.

8articles
8publishers
8story clusters
6active days

RECENT COVERAGE TREND

Daily share of election + campaign articles associated with Nathalie Arthaud. The series covers 29 complete UTC days and does not measure support, approval, sentiment or voting intention.
29 complete days · UTC

Published history from 25 Sep 2026 to 23 Oct 2026.

COVERAGE STRUCTURE

SCOPE

ELECTION100.0%
8 articles
CAMPAIGN0.0%
0 articles

MENTION PLACEMENT

In headline8
Summary only0

TOP PUBLISHER

BFMTV — Politique

TOP PUBLISHERS

8 publishers
  1. BFMTV — Politique1 article · 12.5%
  2. Franceinfo Politique1 article · 12.5%
  3. L'Est Républicain1 article · 12.5%
  4. La Voix du Nord1 article · 12.5%
  5. Le Monde1 article · 12.5%
  6. Le Parisien1 article · 12.5%
  7. Ouest-France1 article · 12.5%
  8. Sud Ouest1 article · 12.5%

TOP STORY CLUSTERS

8 clusters
"Cette irruption de la jeunesse, on ne la voyait pas venir", commente Nathalie Arthaud, candidate Lutte ouvrière à l'élection présidentielle1 article · 1 publisher
Manifestation du 17 octobre : « La casse, ce n’est pas une politique » rappelle Nathalie Arthaud, candidate à l’élection présidentielle1 article · 1 publisher
Mobilisations du 24 octobre: "410.000 manifestants aujourd'hui en France c'est énorme et c'est un grand succès", se réjouit Nathalie Arthaud, porte-parole de Lutte ouvrière et candidate à l'élection présidentielle1 article · 1 publisher
Nathalie Arthaud, candidate de Lutte ouvrière à la présidentielle, à Valenciennes le 5 novembre1 article · 1 publisher
Nord Franche-Comté. Présidentielle 2027 : Nathalie Arthaud (Lutte ouvrière) à Belfort le 10 novembre1 article · 1 publisher
Présidentielle 2027 : Nathalie Arthaud, candidate à une élection dont « il ne faut pas tout attendre », a démarré sa tournée des régions près de Toulouse1 article · 1 publisher
Présidentielle 2027. La candidate Lutte ouvrière, Nathalie Arthaud, en campagne dans le Maine-et-Loire1 article · 1 publisher
Violences du 17 octobre : la candidate d’extrême gauche à la présidentielle Nathalie Arthaud « comprend » le « désarroi » des « petits commerçants »1 article · 1 publisher

LATEST COVERAGE

8 articles

AGENDA & ISSUES

Topics associated with this candidacy in monitored coverage. They describe the composition of media coverage, not the monitored person's priorities or positions.

TOPIC PROFILE · 30D

3 associations · 30 days
  • CANDIDACIES & ENDORSEMENTS100.0%
    CANDIDACIES & ENDORSEMENTSProfile share: 100.0%Associations: 3Period: last 30 days
  • LEGAL ELIGIBILITY0.0%
    LEGAL ELIGIBILITYProfile share: 0.0%Associations: 0Period: last 30 days
  • PRIMARIES & PARTY STRATEGY0.0%
    PRIMARIES & PARTY STRATEGYProfile share: 0.0%Associations: 0Period: last 30 days
  • RULES & CALENDAR0.0%
    RULES & CALENDARProfile share: 0.0%Associations: 0Period: last 30 days
  • POSITIONING & INTEGRITY0.0%
    POSITIONING & INTEGRITYProfile share: 0.0%Associations: 0Period: last 30 days
  • POLLING & RACE NARRATIVES0.0%
    POLLING & RACE NARRATIVESProfile share: 0.0%Associations: 0Period: last 30 days

TOPIC PROFILE · SINCE START

4 associations · 86 days · 2026-07-31 → 2026-10-24
  • CANDIDACIES & ENDORSEMENTS100.0%
    CANDIDACIES & ENDORSEMENTSProfile share: 100.0%Associations: 4Period: since tracking began
  • LEGAL ELIGIBILITY0.0%
    LEGAL ELIGIBILITYProfile share: 0.0%Associations: 0Period: since tracking began
  • PRIMARIES & PARTY STRATEGY0.0%
    PRIMARIES & PARTY STRATEGYProfile share: 0.0%Associations: 0Period: since tracking began
  • RULES & CALENDAR0.0%
    RULES & CALENDARProfile share: 0.0%Associations: 0Period: since tracking began
  • POSITIONING & INTEGRITY0.0%
    POSITIONING & INTEGRITYProfile share: 0.0%Associations: 0Period: since tracking began
  • POLLING & RACE NARRATIVES0.0%
    POLLING & RACE NARRATIVESProfile share: 0.0%Associations: 0Period: since tracking began

TOPIC EVOLUTION

Daily counts of topic associations, with no average, smoothing or interpolation.
1 main topics

Daily series from 31 Jul 2026 to 24 Oct 2026.

SCRUTINY

Published reviews and the source confirming candidacy status.

CLAIMS UNDER SCRUTINY

0 reviews
BY — claim recorded as attributed to this candidacyABOUT — this candidacy is mentioned; the claim is attributed to another person
No associated reviewNo published review is associated with this candidacy in the monitored corpus.

The number of published reviews does not measure a political figure's overall accuracy.

CANDIDACY STATUS

DECLARED CANDIDACY
Status confirmed

Présidentielle 2027 : Nathalie Arthaud, porte-parole de Lutte ouvrière, annonce sa candidature

This source documents the candidacy status recorded by France 2027 Signal Lab.

Source
RTL
Source date
8 Dec 2025
Status verified as of
30 Jul 2026
Open source ↗

PUBLIC ATTENTION

Pageviews of the French-language Wikipedia article. This signal does not measure support.

WIKIPEDIA PAGEVIEWS

Wikipedia pageviews measure visits to the article. They do not measure support, sentiment, approval or voting intention.
pageviews
6,488last 7 days
25,116last 28 days
1,2177-day peak
2,336period peak
Open Wikipedia article ↗

PAGEVIEW HISTORY

Daily pageviews of the French-language Wikipedia article. Repeat visits may be included.
90 days

PUBLIC SIGNALS

These indicators come from independent sources and do not measure the same thing. They are neither a popularity score nor voting intention.

Polymarket

Election winner, including any runoff. Prediction market — not voting intention and not an FR27 forecast. Third-party value, not calculated by FR27. Participants are not a representative sample of French voters. Liquidity and trading conditions may influence prices. FR27 does not combine this signal with polling, Wikipedia, media, agenda or other evidence into a synthetic score. Absence does not mean 0%. Change compares the current value with the latest valid observation at or before seven days earlier. Insufficient history produces no change or chart. Change in percentage points. Up to 30 days of actual time-spaced observations; missing UTC dates break the line, short runs use dots, the current value is ringed. Sparse coverage hides the chart, not the change. Vertical scale spans at least 5 percentage points. Each chart has its own scale: shapes cannot be compared across platforms.

FR27 observation : . Check freshness (48h)

Prediction market

Unavailable

YouTube

Reviewed personal/campaign channel established from first-party sources and pinned to a stable channel ID. Official-channel subscribers, not electoral support. YouTube rounds subscriber counts down to three significant figures. Uploads use video publication times within the seven days before observation, including both boundaries, only when the full playlist is verified. Incomplete activity does not provide an exact count. Change compares the current value with the latest valid observation at or before seven days earlier. Insufficient history produces no change or chart. Subscriber-count change inherits YouTube’s rounding. Up to 30 days of actual time-spaced observations; missing UTC dates break the line, short runs use dots, the current value is ringed. Sparse coverage hides the chart, not the change. Each chart has its own scale: shapes cannot be compared across platforms.

FR27 observation : . Check freshness (48h)

Channel audience

8,900

Subscribers

7 uploads in 7d

YouTube channel ↗

Bluesky

Reviewed personal/campaign account established from first-party sources. The DID is the persistent identity; the handle may change. Official-account followers on Bluesky, not voters or a measure of support. Public-web visibility opt-outs are respected. Change compares the current value with the latest valid observation at or before seven days earlier. Insufficient history produces no change or chart. Change in Bluesky follower count. Up to 30 days of actual time-spaced observations; missing UTC dates break the line, short runs use dots, the current value is ringed. Sparse coverage hides the chart, not the change. Each chart has its own scale: shapes cannot be compared across platforms.

FR27 observation : . Check freshness (48h)

Account audience

Official account not established

EVENTS

Published campaign events associated with this candidacy.

UPCOMING EVENTS

as of 24 Oct 2026
OTHER

Fête régionale Lutte ouvrière de Mantes-Limay avec Nathalie Arthaud et Jean-Pierre Mercier

Salle Christiane Faure · Limay

Lutte ouvrière ↗
RÉUNION PUBLIQUE

Réunion publique de Nathalie Arthaud à La Roche-sur-Yon

Maison de quartier Pont Morineau · La Roche-sur-Yon

Lutte ouvrière ↗
RÉUNION PUBLIQUE

Réunion publique avec Nathalie Arthaud à Cholet

Salle de la Bruyère · Cholet

Lutte ouvrière ↗
OTHER

Débat avec Nathalie Arthaud à la Fête de Besançon

Grand Kursaal · Besançon

Lutte ouvrière ↗
RÉUNION PUBLIQUE

Réunion publique avec Nathalie Arthaud à Belfort

Maison du peuple · Belfort

Lutte ouvrière ↗
RÉUNION PUBLIQUE

Réunion publique avec Nathalie Arthaud à Metz

Etap’Habitat · Metz

Lutte ouvrière ↗

RECENT EVENTS

recent history
RÉUNION PUBLIQUE

Réunion publique avec Nathalie Arthaud à Sens

Salle de la Poterne · Sens

Lutte ouvrière ↗
DEBATE

Débat avec Nathalie Arthaud à Dijon — « Le capitalisme nous mène à la barbarie, l’avenir de l’humanité c’est le communisme »

Kyriad Dijon-Est Mirande · Dijon

Dijon Actualités ↗
RÉUNION PUBLIQUE

Réunion publique avec Nathalie Arthaud à Dole

Salle Georges Brassens · Dole

Lutte ouvrière ↗
OTHER

Débat avec Nathalie Arthaud à la Fête de Bordeaux

Salle Victor-Hugo · Cenon

Lutte ouvrière ↗
OTHER

Débat avec Nathalie Arthaud à la Fête de Lutte ouvrière de Toulouse

Salle des Fêtes de Ramonville Saint-Agne · Ramonville-Saint-Agne

Lutte ouvrière ↗
RÉUNION PUBLIQUE

Réunion publique avec Nathalie Arthaud à Maubeuge

Salle des fêtes de Douzies · Maubeuge

Lutte ouvrière ↗
RÉUNION PUBLIQUE

Réunion publique de Nathalie Arthaud à Douai

Maison des Associations · Douai

Lutte ouvrière ↗
RÉUNION PUBLIQUE

Réunion publique avec Nathalie Arthaud à Saint-Quentin

Salle Europe · Saint-Quentin

Lutte ouvrière ↗