FRANCE 2027 SIGNAL LABSource-linked signals from the French presidential race.
—
daysbefore the first round
18 Apr 2027
Illustrated portrait of Jean-Luc Mélenchon
CANDIDATE DOSSIER

Jean-Luc Mélenchon

Descriptive summary of data published by France 2027 Signal Lab. No average · no forecast · no voting advice.
DECLARED CANDIDACYStatus verified as of 30 Jul 2026
POLLING DATA
17–17% · 4 hypotheses
Ipsos · fieldwork from 21 Oct 2026 to 22 Oct 2026
MEDIA PULSE
12.7%
share of election + campaign coverage, not a measure of support
ARTICLES
31
articles · 7 active days
PUBLISHERS
17
in the current 7-day window

NEWS

Latest source-linked articles, events and changes.

LATEST NEWS

5 articles

EVENTS

4 upcoming · 1 recent
OTHER

Convention présidentielle de La France insoumise au Bourget

Parc des Expositions Paris Le Bourget · Le Bourget

Mélenchon 2027 ↗
RÉUNION PUBLIQUE

Discours de Jean-Luc Mélenchon sur la paix à La Souterraine

Centre culturel Yves Furet · La Souterraine

Mélenchon 2027 ↗
DEBATE

Débat présidentiel LCI–Restos du Cœur — Quelle société pour demain ?

LCI / Les Restos du Cœur

LCI / TF1 Info ↗
MEETING

Meeting de Jean-Luc Mélenchon à Clermont-Ferrand

Zénith d'Auvergne · Cournon-d'Auvergne

Action Populaire ↗

WHAT CHANGED

2 items
SCRUTINY

Manger bio réduit les risques de diabète

TF1 Info ↗

POLLS

Published scores by hypothesis. No average, smoothing or interpolation.

LATEST WAVE

17–17%4 hypotheses

Range of published scores for Jean-Luc Mélenchon across the hypotheses tested in the latest wave. France 2027 Signal Lab does not calculate an average.

Pollster
Ipsos
Sample
1,500
Fieldwork
21 Oct 2026 — 22 Oct 2026
View poll source ↗

FIRST-ROUND POLL HISTORY

Each mark represents a first-round poll observation grouped by pollster, fieldwork dates and sample size. A point shows the exact selected-hypothesis score when available. A vertical bar shows the published range across hypotheses. Horizontal position follows the fieldwork end date. No average, smoothing or interpolation.
74 observations

From 25 Oct 2022 to 22 Oct 2026. Enable JavaScript for the interactive visualization.

Published poll waves · 74
  1. Ipsos · 21–22 Oct 2026
  2. Harris · 19–21 Oct 2026
  3. Ifop · 17–19 Oct 2026
  4. Elabe · 14–16 Oct 2026
  5. Elabe · 14–16 Oct 2026
  6. Cluster17 · 14–15 Oct 2026
  7. YouGov · 12–15 Oct 2026
  8. OpinionWay · 13–14 Oct 2026
  9. Ifop · 12–14 Oct 2026
  10. Harris · 5–8 Oct 2026
  11. Odoxa · 24 Sep–7 Oct 2026
  12. Ifop · 25–29 Sep 2026
  13. Harris · 22–24 Sep 2026
  14. YouGov · 17–21 Sep 2026
  15. Cluster17 · 15–16 Sep 2026
  16. Ifop · 9–11 Sep 2026
  17. OpinionWay · 9–10 Sep 2026
  18. Harris · 8–10 Sep 2026
  19. OpinionWay · 8–9 Sep 2026
  20. Ipsos · 3–9 Sep 2026
  21. OpinionWay · 2–3 Sep 2026
  22. Ipsos · 31 Aug–2 Sep 2026
  23. Cluster17 · 31 Aug–1 Sep 2026
  24. Elabe · 26–28 Aug 2026
  25. Ifop · 24–25 Aug 2026
  26. Harris Interactive · 18–19 Aug 2026
  27. Cluster17 · 22–24 Jul 2026
  28. Elabe · 9–10 Jul 2026
  29. Verian · 8–10 Jul 2026
  30. OpinionWay · 8–9 Jul 2026
  31. Ifop · 7–8 Jul 2026
  32. Harris Interactive · 7–8 Jul 2026
  33. Harris Interactive · 7–8 Jul 2026
  34. Ifop · 22–24 Jun 2026
  35. OpinionWay · 10–11 Jun 2026
  36. Ipsos · 27–28 May 2026
  37. Ifop · 26–28 May 2026
  38. Harris Interactive · 25–27 May 2026
  39. Harris Interactive · 28–30 Apr 2026
  40. Harris Interactive · 22 Apr 2026
  41. Elabe · 25–27 Mar 2026
  42. Harris Interactive · 22 Mar 2026
  43. Ifop · 26–27 Feb 2026
  44. Elabe · 30–31 Oct 2025
  45. Elabe · 30–31 Oct 2025
  46. Harris Interactive · 7 Oct 2025
  47. Cluster17 · 30 Sep–1 Oct 2025
  48. Cluster17 · 30 Sep–1 Oct 2025
  49. Ifop · 24–25 Sep 2025
  50. Ifop · 19–20 May 2025
  51. Harris Interactive · 19 May 2025
  52. Ifop · 29–30 Apr 2025
  53. Odoxa · 23–24 Apr 2025
  54. Ifop/Hexagone · 11–18 Apr 2025
  55. Elabe · 2–4 Apr 2025
  56. Ifop · 26–27 Mar 2025
  57. Ifop · 6–9 Dec 2024
  58. OpinionWay · 11–12 Sep 2024
  59. Ifop · 6–9 Sep 2024
  60. Harris Interactive · 7–8 Jul 2024
  61. Ifop · 16–18 Apr 2024
  62. Cluster17 · 2–5 Apr 2024
  63. Ifop · 31 Jan–1 Feb 2024
  64. Ifop · 9–10 Jan 2024
  65. Ifop · 24–25 Oct 2023
  66. Cluster17 · 18–20 Oct 2023
  67. Harris Interactive · 1–4 Sep 2023
  68. OpinionWay · 12–13 Apr 2023
  69. Harris Interactive · 6–7 Apr 2023
  70. Odoxa · 5–6 Apr 2023
  71. Elabe · 3–5 Apr 2023
  72. Ifop · 30–31 Mar 2023
  73. Cluster17 · 4–6 Nov 2022
  74. Ifop · 25–26 Oct 2022

TESTED RUNOFFS

For each runoff, France 2027 Signal Lab shows at most the three most recent observations, ordered by fieldwork end date. Older observations remain in the source corpus. No average or interpolation is calculated.
2 opponents · 5 observations shown

Marine Le Pen

23 tests total · 3 most recent shown
OpinionWay21 Oct 2026 — 22 Oct 2026
Sample: 973
31%69%
Source ↗
Harris19 Oct 2026 — 21 Oct 2026
Sample: 2,094
30%70%
Source ↗
Ifop17 Oct 2026 — 19 Oct 2026
Sample: 1,928
32%68%
Source ↗

Édouard Philippe

2 tests total
YouGov12 Oct 2026 — 15 Oct 2026
Sample: 1,094
34%66%
Source ↗
YouGov17 Sep 2026 — 21 Sep 2026
Sample: 1,103
39%61%
Source ↗

MEDIA PULSE & COVERAGE

Visibility in monitored coverage: volume, publishers, composition and concentration.

MEDIA PULSE

Media Pulse measures the share of articles associated with Jean-Luc Mélenchon in the election and campaign scopes. It does not measure support, approval, sentiment or voting intention.
last 7 published days
12.7%SHARE OF ELECTION + CAMPAIGN COVERAGE

Share of articles associated with Jean-Luc Mélenchon in the election and campaign scopes.

31articles
17publishers
24story clusters
7active days

RECENT COVERAGE TREND

Daily share of election + campaign articles associated with Jean-Luc Mélenchon. The series covers 29 complete UTC days and does not measure support, approval, sentiment or voting intention.
29 complete days · UTC

Published history from 25 Sep 2026 to 23 Oct 2026.

COVERAGE STRUCTURE

SCOPE

ELECTION90.3%
28 articles
CAMPAIGN9.7%
3 articles

MENTION PLACEMENT

In headline28
Summary only3

TOP PUBLISHER

BFMTV — Politique

TOP PUBLISHERS

10 publishers
  1. BFMTV — Politique7 articles · 22.6%
  2. La Dépêche du Midi3 articles · 9.7%
  3. Le Parisien3 articles · 9.7%
  4. Midi Libre3 articles · 9.7%
  5. CNEWS2 articles · 6.5%
  6. Sud Ouest2 articles · 6.5%
  7. actu.fr1 article · 3.2%
  8. Franceinfo Politique1 article · 3.2%
  9. L'Alsace1 article · 3.2%
  10. L'Est Républicain1 article · 3.2%

TOP STORY CLUSTERS

8 clusters
Présidentielle 2027. En cas de duel au second tour, Marine Le Pen toujours loin devant Jean-Luc Mélenchon4 articles · 4 publishers
Présidentielle 2027 : Édouard Philippe, Raphaël Glucksmann et Jean-Luc Mélenchon au coude à coude dans un nouveau sondage3 articles · 3 publishers
Présidentielle 2027 : Jean-Luc Mélenchon se qualifie au second tour dans tous les cas de figure, selon un sondage3 articles · 3 publishers
A Raphaël Glucksmann de démontrer qu’il entend faire une place aux classes populaires1 article · 1 publisher
Changement du parcours de la manifestation à Paris: Jean-Luc Mélenchon, candidat LFI à la présidentielle, souligne "une discipline collective magnifique"1 article · 1 publisher
EXCLUSIF. Présidentielle 2027 : Marine Le Pen et Jean-Luc Mélenchon, candidats les plus cités dans les médias1 article · 1 publisher
Jean-Luc Mélenchon ou Raphaël Glucksmann: vers qui vont pencher les unitaires de gauche pour la présidentielle 2027?1 article · 1 publisher
Jean-Luc Mélenchon élection présidentielle : sondage favorable1 article · 1 publisher

LATEST COVERAGE

12 articles

AGENDA & ISSUES

Topics associated with this candidacy in monitored coverage. They describe the composition of media coverage, not the monitored person's priorities or positions.

TOPIC PROFILE · 30D

10 associations · 30 days
  • Europe, defence and foreign affairs40.0%
    Europe, defence and foreign affairsProfile share: 40.0%Associations: 4Period: last 30 days
  • Economy and public finances30.0%
    Economy and public financesProfile share: 30.0%Associations: 3Period: last 30 days
  • Work, purchasing power and pensions10.0%
    Work, purchasing power and pensionsProfile share: 10.0%Associations: 1Period: last 30 days
  • Health, education and public services10.0%
    Health, education and public servicesProfile share: 10.0%Associations: 1Period: last 30 days
  • Climate, energy and agriculture10.0%
    Climate, energy and agricultureProfile share: 10.0%Associations: 1Period: last 30 days
  • Immigration, identity and secularism0.0%
    Immigration, identity and secularismProfile share: 0.0%Associations: 0Period: last 30 days
  • Security and justice0.0%
    Security and justiceProfile share: 0.0%Associations: 0Period: last 30 days
  • Institutions, democracy and territories0.0%
    Institutions, democracy and territoriesProfile share: 0.0%Associations: 0Period: last 30 days

TOPIC PROFILE · SINCE START

53 associations · 86 days · 2026-07-31 → 2026-10-24
  • Economy and public finances34.0%
    Economy and public financesProfile share: 34.0%Associations: 18Period: since tracking began
  • Work, purchasing power and pensions26.4%
    Work, purchasing power and pensionsProfile share: 26.4%Associations: 14Period: since tracking began
  • Climate, energy and agriculture17.0%
    Climate, energy and agricultureProfile share: 17.0%Associations: 9Period: since tracking began
  • Europe, defence and foreign affairs11.3%
    Europe, defence and foreign affairsProfile share: 11.3%Associations: 6Period: since tracking began
  • Immigration, identity and secularism7.5%
    Immigration, identity and secularismProfile share: 7.5%Associations: 4Period: since tracking began
  • Health, education and public services3.8%
    Health, education and public servicesProfile share: 3.8%Associations: 2Period: since tracking began
  • Security and justice0.0%
    Security and justiceProfile share: 0.0%Associations: 0Period: since tracking began
  • Institutions, democracy and territories0.0%
    Institutions, democracy and territoriesProfile share: 0.0%Associations: 0Period: since tracking began

TOPIC EVOLUTION

Daily counts of topic associations, with no average, smoothing or interpolation.
4 main topics

Daily series from 31 Jul 2026 to 24 Oct 2026.

SCRUTINY

Published reviews and the source confirming candidacy status.

CLAIMS UNDER SCRUTINY

11 reviews
BY — claim recorded as attributed to this candidacyABOUT — this candidacy is mentioned; the claim is attributed to another person
  1. BY

    Manger bio réduit les risques de diabète

    En partie vrai

    TF1 InfoSource ↗
  2. BY

    Le nombre d'interpellations lors des manifestations lycéennes de 2026 est plus élevé que pendant mai 1968

    Plutôt faux

    TF1 InfoSource ↗
  3. BY

    Ça suffit le coup du soit disant prix Nobel d'économie. Ce n'est pas le même prix Nobel que celui de médecine ou de physique. C'est le prix créé par une banque suédoise qu'ils ont eux-mêmes appelé "Nobel" en prétendu hommage à l'inventeur de la dynamite.

    Plutôt Vrai

    franceinfoSource ↗
  4. BY

    On peut annuler la dette de la France détenue par la BCE

    Trompeur

    AFP FactuelSource ↗
  5. ABOUT

    Jean-Luc Mélenchon a déclaré "'Le seul parti qui réhabilite la politique, c'est le Front national"

    C’est plus compliqué

    franceinfoSource ↗
  6. ABOUT

    Jean-Luc Mélenchon déclaré dans une interview en 1991 que "le Front national réhabilite la politique"

    Plutôt faux

    TF1 InfoSource ↗
  7. ABOUT

    Paris Match a publié cette Une sur Jean-Luc Mélenchon et Sophia Chikirou

    Faux

    AFP FactuelSource ↗
  8. ABOUT

    Jean-Luc Mélenchon est propriétaire d'une villa à Biarritz, évaluée à 21 millions d'euros

    Faux

    TF1 InfoSource ↗
  9. BY

    L'Iran et Oman sont souverains dans le détroit d'Ormuz

    Manque de contexte

    AFP FactuelSource ↗
  10. BY

    Un couple sur quatre a recours à la PMA pour avoir des enfants

    Faux

    TF1 InfoSource ↗
  11. BY

    Les découverts seront interdits à partir du 20 novembre 2026 en France

    Trompeur

    AFP FactuelSource ↗

The number of published reviews does not measure a political figure's overall accuracy.

CANDIDACY STATUS

DECLARED CANDIDACY
Status confirmed

Jean-Luc Mélenchon officialise sa candidature pour l’Elysée en 2027

This source documents the candidacy status recorded by France 2027 Signal Lab.

Source
RTS
Source date
3 May 2026
Status verified as of
30 Jul 2026
Open source ↗

PUBLIC ATTENTION

Pageviews of the French-language Wikipedia article. This signal does not measure support.

WIKIPEDIA PAGEVIEWS

Wikipedia pageviews measure visits to the article. They do not measure support, sentiment, approval or voting intention.
pageviews
78,201last 7 days
244,882last 28 days
17,1127-day peak
17,112period peak
Open Wikipedia article ↗

PAGEVIEW HISTORY

Daily pageviews of the French-language Wikipedia article. Repeat visits may be included.
90 days

PUBLIC SIGNALS

These indicators come from independent sources and do not measure the same thing. They are neither a popularity score nor voting intention.

Polymarket

Election winner, including any runoff. Prediction market — not voting intention and not an FR27 forecast. Third-party value, not calculated by FR27. Participants are not a representative sample of French voters. Liquidity and trading conditions may influence prices. FR27 does not combine this signal with polling, Wikipedia, media, agenda or other evidence into a synthetic score. Absence does not mean 0%. Change compares the current value with the latest valid observation at or before seven days earlier. Insufficient history produces no change or chart. Change in percentage points. Up to 30 days of actual time-spaced observations; missing UTC dates break the line, short runs use dots, the current value is ringed. Sparse coverage hides the chart, not the change. Vertical scale spans at least 5 percentage points. Each chart has its own scale: shapes cannot be compared across platforms.

FR27 observation : . Check freshness (48h)

Prediction market

10.5%

Implied probability

Polymarket ↗

YouTube

Reviewed personal/campaign channel established from first-party sources and pinned to a stable channel ID. Official-channel subscribers, not electoral support. YouTube rounds subscriber counts down to three significant figures. Uploads use video publication times within the seven days before observation, including both boundaries, only when the full playlist is verified. Incomplete activity does not provide an exact count. Change compares the current value with the latest valid observation at or before seven days earlier. Insufficient history produces no change or chart. Subscriber-count change inherits YouTube’s rounding. Up to 30 days of actual time-spaced observations; missing UTC dates break the line, short runs use dots, the current value is ringed. Sparse coverage hides the chart, not the change. Each chart has its own scale: shapes cannot be compared across platforms.

FR27 observation : . Check freshness (48h)

Channel audience

1,300,000

Subscribers

Recent activity incomplete

YouTube channel ↗

Bluesky

Reviewed personal/campaign account established from first-party sources. The DID is the persistent identity; the handle may change. Official-account followers on Bluesky, not voters or a measure of support. Public-web visibility opt-outs are respected. Change compares the current value with the latest valid observation at or before seven days earlier. Insufficient history produces no change or chart. Change in Bluesky follower count. Up to 30 days of actual time-spaced observations; missing UTC dates break the line, short runs use dots, the current value is ringed. Sparse coverage hides the chart, not the change. Each chart has its own scale: shapes cannot be compared across platforms.

FR27 observation : . Check freshness (48h)

Account audience

Official account not established

EVENTS

Published campaign events associated with this candidacy.

UPCOMING EVENTS

as of 24 Oct 2026
OTHER

Convention présidentielle de La France insoumise au Bourget

Parc des Expositions Paris Le Bourget · Le Bourget

Mélenchon 2027 ↗
RÉUNION PUBLIQUE

Discours de Jean-Luc Mélenchon sur la paix à La Souterraine

Centre culturel Yves Furet · La Souterraine

Mélenchon 2027 ↗
DEBATE

Débat présidentiel LCI–Restos du Cœur — Quelle société pour demain ?

LCI / Les Restos du Cœur

LCI / TF1 Info ↗

RECENT EVENTS

recent history
MEETING

Meeting de Jean-Luc Mélenchon à Clermont-Ferrand

Zénith d'Auvergne · Cournon-d'Auvergne

Action Populaire ↗
DEBATE

Grand Oral Politique du Paris Builders Show

Paris Expo Porte de Versailles · Paris

Paris Builders Show ↗
MEETING

Meeting de Jean-Luc Mélenchon à la Fête de l’Humanité

Fête de l’Humanité

La France insoumise ↗
VISIT

Discours de Jean-Luc Mélenchon à la Braderie de Lille

Porte de Paris - Place Simon Vollant · Lille

La France insoumise ↗
DEBATE

Grand débat de la campagne présidentielle 2027 sur LCI

Court Philippe-Chatrier, Roland-Garros

TF1 Info ↗
MEETING

Meeting de Jean-Luc Mélenchon aux AMFIS 2026

O Lac

AMFIS 2026 ↗