FRANCE 2027 SIGNAL LABSource-linked signals from the French presidential race.
—
daysbefore the first round
18 Apr 2027
Illustrated portrait of Marine Le Pen
CANDIDATE DOSSIER

Marine Le Pen

Descriptive summary of data published by France 2027 Signal Lab. No average · no forecast · no voting advice.
DECLAREDStatus verified as of 30 Jul 2026
POLLING DATA
32–33.5% · 4 hypotheses
Ipsos · fieldwork from 21 Oct 2026 to 22 Oct 2026
MEDIA PULSE
27.8%
share of election + campaign coverage, not a measure of support
ARTICLES
68
articles · 7 active days
PUBLISHERS
33
in the current 7-day window

NEWS

Latest source-linked articles, events and changes.

LATEST NEWS

5 articles

EVENTS

3 upcoming · 2 recent
CAMPAIGN LAUNCH

Meeting de lancement de la campagne présidentielle du Rassemblement National

Co'Met ARENA · Orléans

Rassemblement National ↗
DEBATE

Débat présidentiel LCI–Restos du Cœur — Quelle société pour demain ?

LCI / Les Restos du Cœur

LCI / TF1 Info ↗
OTHER

Présentation du projet de réforme des retraites de Marine Le Pen

Location not published

TF1 Info ↗
VISIT

Déplacement de Marine Le Pen consacré à la protection de l’enfance

Location not published

Radio TOTEM ↗

WHAT CHANGED

6 items
CAMPAIGN

Au congrès du RN, Marine Le Pen lance sa campagne pour l’Élysée, Bardella vise Matignon

France 24 — France ↗
CAMPAIGN

"On a connu lancement de campagne plus apaisé" : à Orléans, Marine Le Pen se lance dans la course à l'Élysée dans un climat tendu

TF1 Info ↗
CAMPAIGN

« Nous voulons être outrageusement optimistes » : Marine Le Pen lance sa campagne sous haute pression

Le Parisien ↗
CAMPAIGN

Éric Ciotti appelle Retailleau et Lisnard à se rallier à Marine Le Pen

Valeurs actuelles ↗
CAMPAIGN

Présidentielle : les bailleurs sociaux ne veulent pas de Marine Le Pen mais se préparent à devoir travailler davantage avec le Rassemblement national

Le Moniteur ↗

POLLS

Published scores by hypothesis. No average, smoothing or interpolation.

LATEST WAVE

32–33.5%4 hypotheses

Range of published scores for Marine Le Pen across the hypotheses tested in the latest wave. France 2027 Signal Lab does not calculate an average.

Pollster
Ipsos
Sample
1,500
Fieldwork
21 Oct 2026 — 22 Oct 2026
View poll source ↗

FIRST-ROUND POLL HISTORY

Each mark represents a first-round poll observation grouped by pollster, fieldwork dates and sample size. A point shows the exact selected-hypothesis score when available. A vertical bar shows the published range across hypotheses. Horizontal position follows the fieldwork end date. No average, smoothing or interpolation.
70 observations

From 25 Oct 2022 to 22 Oct 2026. Enable JavaScript for the interactive visualization.

Published poll waves · 70
  1. Ipsos · 21–22 Oct 2026
  2. Harris · 19–21 Oct 2026
  3. Ifop · 17–19 Oct 2026
  4. Elabe · 14–16 Oct 2026
  5. Elabe · 14–16 Oct 2026
  6. Cluster17 · 14–15 Oct 2026
  7. YouGov · 12–15 Oct 2026
  8. OpinionWay · 13–14 Oct 2026
  9. Ifop · 12–14 Oct 2026
  10. Harris · 5–8 Oct 2026
  11. Odoxa · 24 Sep–7 Oct 2026
  12. Ifop · 25–29 Sep 2026
  13. Harris · 22–24 Sep 2026
  14. YouGov · 17–21 Sep 2026
  15. Cluster17 · 15–16 Sep 2026
  16. Ifop · 9–11 Sep 2026
  17. OpinionWay · 9–10 Sep 2026
  18. Harris · 8–10 Sep 2026
  19. OpinionWay · 8–9 Sep 2026
  20. Ipsos · 3–9 Sep 2026
  21. OpinionWay · 2–3 Sep 2026
  22. Ipsos · 31 Aug–2 Sep 2026
  23. Cluster17 · 31 Aug–1 Sep 2026
  24. Elabe · 26–28 Aug 2026
  25. Ifop · 24–25 Aug 2026
  26. Harris Interactive · 18–19 Aug 2026
  27. Cluster17 · 22–24 Jul 2026
  28. Elabe · 9–10 Jul 2026
  29. Verian · 8–10 Jul 2026
  30. OpinionWay · 8–9 Jul 2026
  31. Ifop · 7–8 Jul 2026
  32. Harris Interactive · 7–8 Jul 2026
  33. Harris Interactive · 7–8 Jul 2026
  34. Ifop · 22–24 Jun 2026
  35. Ipsos · 27–28 May 2026
  36. Ifop · 26–28 May 2026
  37. Harris Interactive · 25–27 May 2026
  38. Harris Interactive · 28–30 Apr 2026
  39. Harris Interactive · 22 Apr 2026
  40. Elabe · 25–27 Mar 2026
  41. Ifop · 26–27 Feb 2026
  42. Elabe · 30–31 Oct 2025
  43. Elabe · 30–31 Oct 2025
  44. Harris Interactive · 7 Oct 2025
  45. Cluster17 · 30 Sep–1 Oct 2025
  46. Ifop · 24–25 Sep 2025
  47. Ifop · 19–20 May 2025
  48. Harris Interactive · 19 May 2025
  49. Ifop · 29–30 Apr 2025
  50. Odoxa · 23–24 Apr 2025
  51. Ifop/Hexagone · 11–18 Apr 2025
  52. Elabe · 2–4 Apr 2025
  53. Ifop · 26–27 Mar 2025
  54. Ifop · 6–9 Dec 2024
  55. OpinionWay · 11–12 Sep 2024
  56. Ifop · 6–9 Sep 2024
  57. Harris Interactive · 7–8 Jul 2024
  58. Ifop · 16–18 Apr 2024
  59. Cluster17 · 2–5 Apr 2024
  60. Ifop · 31 Jan–1 Feb 2024
  61. Ifop · 9–10 Jan 2024
  62. Ifop · 24–25 Oct 2023
  63. Cluster17 · 18–20 Oct 2023
  64. Harris Interactive · 1–4 Sep 2023
  65. Harris Interactive · 6–7 Apr 2023
  66. Odoxa · 5–6 Apr 2023
  67. Elabe · 3–5 Apr 2023
  68. Ifop · 30–31 Mar 2023
  69. Cluster17 · 4–6 Nov 2022
  70. Ifop · 25–26 Oct 2022

TESTED RUNOFFS

For each runoff, France 2027 Signal Lab shows at most the three most recent observations, ordered by fieldwork end date. Older observations remain in the source corpus. No average or interpolation is calculated.
7 opponents · 19 observations shown

Édouard Philippe

27 tests total · 3 most recent shown
OpinionWay21 Oct 2026 — 22 Oct 2026
Sample: 973
56%44%
Source ↗
Harris19 Oct 2026 — 21 Oct 2026
Sample: 2,094
57%43%
Source ↗
Ifop17 Oct 2026 — 19 Oct 2026
Sample: 1,928
56%44%
Source ↗

Raphaël Glucksmann

11 tests total · 3 most recent shown
OpinionWay21 Oct 2026 — 22 Oct 2026
Sample: 973
56%44%
Source ↗
Harris19 Oct 2026 — 21 Oct 2026
Sample: 2,094
59%41%
Source ↗
Ifop17 Oct 2026 — 19 Oct 2026
Sample: 1,928
57%43%
Source ↗

Jean-Luc Mélenchon

23 tests total · 3 most recent shown
OpinionWay21 Oct 2026 — 22 Oct 2026
Sample: 973
69%31%
Source ↗
Harris19 Oct 2026 — 21 Oct 2026
Sample: 2,094
70%30%
Source ↗
Ifop17 Oct 2026 — 19 Oct 2026
Sample: 1,928
68%32%
Source ↗

Gabriel Attal

17 tests total · 3 most recent shown
Ifop17 Oct 2026 — 19 Oct 2026
Sample: 1,928
58%42%
Source ↗
YouGov12 Oct 2026 — 15 Oct 2026
Sample: 1,094
55%45%
Source ↗
YouGov17 Sep 2026 — 21 Sep 2026
Sample: 1,103
57%43%
Source ↗

François Hollande

4 tests total · 3 most recent shown
Ifop17 Oct 2026 — 19 Oct 2026
Sample: 1,928
59%41%
Source ↗
YouGov12 Oct 2026 — 15 Oct 2026
Sample: 1,094
55%45%
Source ↗
YouGov17 Sep 2026 — 21 Sep 2026
Sample: 1,103
56%44%
Source ↗

Bruno Retailleau

3 tests total
Ifop24 Aug 2026 — 25 Aug 2026
Sample: 1,598
58%42%
Source ↗
Cluster1722 Jul 2026 — 24 Jul 2026
Sample: 1,506
57%43%
Source ↗
Elabe9 Jul 2026 — 10 Jul 2026
Sample: 1,503
56%44%
Source ↗

François Ruffin

1 test total
Cluster172 Apr 2024 — 5 Apr 2024
Sample: 1,686
50%50%
Source ↗

MEDIA PULSE & COVERAGE

Visibility in monitored coverage: volume, publishers, composition and concentration.

MEDIA PULSE

Media Pulse measures Marine Le Pen's share of associated articles within the election and campaign scopes. It does not measure support, approval, sentiment or voting intention.
last 7 published days
27.8%SHARE OF ELECTION + CAMPAIGN COVERAGE

Share of articles associated with Marine Le Pen within the election and campaign scopes.

68articles
33publishers
60story clusters
7active days

RECENT COVERAGE TREND

Daily share of election + campaign articles associated with Marine Le Pen. The series covers 29 complete UTC days and does not measure support, approval, sentiment or voting intention.
29 complete days · UTC

Published history from 25 Sep 2026 to 23 Oct 2026.

COVERAGE STRUCTURE

SCOPE

ELECTION83.8%
57 articles
CAMPAIGN16.2%
11 articles

MENTION PLACEMENT

In headline61
Summary only7

TOP PUBLISHER

BFMTV — Politique

TOP PUBLISHERS

10 publishers
  1. BFMTV — Politique7 articles · 10.3%
  2. Franceinfo Politique7 articles · 10.3%
  3. La Dépêche du Midi5 articles · 7.4%
  4. HuffPost France — Headlines4 articles · 5.9%
  5. LCP — Actualités4 articles · 5.9%
  6. Sud Ouest4 articles · 5.9%
  7. Le Parisien3 articles · 4.4%
  8. Midi Libre3 articles · 4.4%
  9. CNEWS2 articles · 2.9%
  10. Le JDD2 articles · 2.9%

TOP STORY CLUSTERS

8 clusters
Présidentielle 2027. En cas de duel au second tour, Marine Le Pen toujours loin devant Jean-Luc Mélenchon4 articles · 4 publishers
Présidentielle 2027 : Ciotti appelle Retailleau et Lisnard à cesser « leurs candidatures de témoignages » et s’allier à Marine Le Pen2 articles · 2 publishers
Présidentielle 2027: Éric Ciotti presse Bruno Retailleau et David Lisnard de retirer "leurs candidatures de témoignages"2 articles · 2 publishers
SONDAGE Présidentielle 2027 : plus de 30 % pour Marine Le Pen, c’est serré pour Édouard Philippe, Raphaël Glucksmann et Jean-Luc Mélenchon2 articles · 2 publishers
Édito. À six mois de l'élection présidentielle, la popularité de Marine Le Pen semble inaltérable2 articles · 2 publishers
Donald Trump dit tout le bien qu’il pense de Marine Le Pen en vue de l’élection présidentielle de 20272 articles · 1 publisher
"C'est un cadeau pour le RN" : les violences du 17 octobre peuvent-elles avoir une influence sur la campagne présidentielle ?1 article · 1 publisher
"Je vais affronter Marine Le Pen politiquement": Raphaël Glucksmann explique pourquoi il ne sera pas là à la mobilisation demain à Orléans contre le congrès du RN1 article · 1 publisher

LATEST COVERAGE

12 articles

AGENDA & ISSUES

Topics associated with Marine Le Pen in monitored coverage. They describe the composition of media coverage, not the candidate's priorities or positions.

TOPIC PROFILE · 30D

38 associations · 30 days
  • Europe, defence and foreign affairs47.4%
    Europe, defence and foreign affairsProfile share: 47.4%Associations: 18Period: last 30 days
  • Economy and public finances21.1%
    Economy and public financesProfile share: 21.1%Associations: 8Period: last 30 days
  • Work, purchasing power and pensions10.5%
    Work, purchasing power and pensionsProfile share: 10.5%Associations: 4Period: last 30 days
  • Security and justice7.9%
    Security and justiceProfile share: 7.9%Associations: 3Period: last 30 days
  • Institutions, democracy and territories7.9%
    Institutions, democracy and territoriesProfile share: 7.9%Associations: 3Period: last 30 days
  • Health, education and public services2.6%
    Health, education and public servicesProfile share: 2.6%Associations: 1Period: last 30 days
  • Climate, energy and agriculture2.6%
    Climate, energy and agricultureProfile share: 2.6%Associations: 1Period: last 30 days
  • Immigration, identity and secularism0.0%
    Immigration, identity and secularismProfile share: 0.0%Associations: 0Period: last 30 days

TOPIC PROFILE · SINCE START

85 associations · 86 days · 2026-07-31 → 2026-10-24
  • Economy and public finances34.1%
    Economy and public financesProfile share: 34.1%Associations: 29Period: since tracking began
  • Europe, defence and foreign affairs29.4%
    Europe, defence and foreign affairsProfile share: 29.4%Associations: 25Period: since tracking began
  • Work, purchasing power and pensions21.2%
    Work, purchasing power and pensionsProfile share: 21.2%Associations: 18Period: since tracking began
  • Security and justice5.9%
    Security and justiceProfile share: 5.9%Associations: 5Period: since tracking began
  • Climate, energy and agriculture3.5%
    Climate, energy and agricultureProfile share: 3.5%Associations: 3Period: since tracking began
  • Institutions, democracy and territories3.5%
    Institutions, democracy and territoriesProfile share: 3.5%Associations: 3Period: since tracking began
  • Immigration, identity and secularism1.2%
    Immigration, identity and secularismProfile share: 1.2%Associations: 1Period: since tracking began
  • Health, education and public services1.2%
    Health, education and public servicesProfile share: 1.2%Associations: 1Period: since tracking began

TOPIC EVOLUTION

Daily counts of topic associations, with no average, smoothing or interpolation.
4 main topics

Daily series from 31 Jul 2026 to 24 Oct 2026.

SCRUTINY

Published reviews and the source confirming candidacy status.

CLAIMS UNDER SCRUTINY

6 reviews
BY — claim attributed to Marine Le PenABOUT — Marine Le Pen is mentioned; the claim is attributed to another person
  1. BY

    "Aujourd'hui, 70% des Français sont éligibles au parc social et seulement 11% en bénéficient"

    Plutôt Faux

    franceinfoSource ↗
  2. BY

    Les Français seulement 11% à vivre dans un logement social, alors que 70% y sont éligibles

    Plutôt faux

    TF1 InfoSource ↗
  3. BY

    On compte en France 9 millions de mètres carrés de bureaux inutilisés

    En partie vrai

    TF1 InfoSource ↗
  4. BY

    Le vin n'est pas mauvais pour la santé si on en n'abuse pas

    Faux

    AFP FactuelSource ↗
  5. BY

    En France, l'âge moyen du premier "emploi réel" est aujourd'hui de 27 ans ?

    Plutôt vrai

    TF1 InfoSource ↗
  6. ABOUT

    Dans une vidéo, Marine Le Pen critique vivement les voyages de M.Tshisékédi

    Vidéo manipulée

    AFP FactuelSource ↗

The number of published reviews does not measure a political figure's overall accuracy.

CANDIDACY STATUS

DECLARED
Status confirmed

France — Marine Le Pen défie la justice et annonce sa candidature en 2027

This source documents the public candidacy announcement recorded by France 2027 Signal Lab.

Source
Reuters via Boursorama
Source date
7 Jul 2026
Status verified as of
30 Jul 2026
Open source ↗

PUBLIC ATTENTION

Pageviews of the French-language Wikipedia article. This signal does not measure support.

WIKIPEDIA PAGEVIEWS

Wikipedia pageviews measure visits to the article. They do not measure support, sentiment, approval or voting intention.
pageviews
31,755last 7 days
98,200last 28 days
6,1637-day peak
23,705period peak
Open Wikipedia article ↗

PAGEVIEW HISTORY

Daily pageviews of the French-language Wikipedia article. Repeat visits may be included.
90 days

PUBLIC SIGNALS

These indicators come from independent sources and do not measure the same thing. They are neither a popularity score nor voting intention.

Polymarket

Election winner, including any runoff. Prediction market — not voting intention and not an FR27 forecast. Third-party value, not calculated by FR27. Participants are not a representative sample of French voters. Liquidity and trading conditions may influence prices. FR27 does not combine this signal with polling, Wikipedia, media, agenda or other evidence into a synthetic score. Absence does not mean 0%. Change compares the current value with the latest valid observation at or before seven days earlier. Insufficient history produces no change or chart. Change in percentage points. Up to 30 days of actual time-spaced observations; missing UTC dates break the line, short runs use dots, the current value is ringed. Sparse coverage hides the chart, not the change. Vertical scale spans at least 5 percentage points. Each chart has its own scale: shapes cannot be compared across platforms.

FR27 observation : . Check freshness (48h)

Prediction market

46.2%

Implied probability

Polymarket ↗

YouTube

Reviewed personal/campaign channel established from first-party sources and pinned to a stable channel ID. Official-channel subscribers, not electoral support. YouTube rounds subscriber counts down to three significant figures. Uploads use video publication times within the seven days before observation, including both boundaries, only when the full playlist is verified. Incomplete activity does not provide an exact count. Change compares the current value with the latest valid observation at or before seven days earlier. Insufficient history produces no change or chart. Subscriber-count change inherits YouTube’s rounding. Up to 30 days of actual time-spaced observations; missing UTC dates break the line, short runs use dots, the current value is ringed. Sparse coverage hides the chart, not the change. Each chart has its own scale: shapes cannot be compared across platforms.

FR27 observation : . Check freshness (48h)

Channel audience

221,000

Subscribers

44 uploads in 7d

YouTube channel ↗

Bluesky

Reviewed personal/campaign account established from first-party sources. The DID is the persistent identity; the handle may change. Official-account followers on Bluesky, not voters or a measure of support. Public-web visibility opt-outs are respected. Change compares the current value with the latest valid observation at or before seven days earlier. Insufficient history produces no change or chart. Change in Bluesky follower count. Up to 30 days of actual time-spaced observations; missing UTC dates break the line, short runs use dots, the current value is ringed. Sparse coverage hides the chart, not the change. Each chart has its own scale: shapes cannot be compared across platforms.

FR27 observation : . Check freshness (48h)

Account audience

Official account not established

EVENTS

Published campaign events associated with Marine Le Pen.

UPCOMING EVENTS

as of 24 Oct 2026
CAMPAIGN LAUNCH

Meeting de lancement de la campagne présidentielle du Rassemblement National

Co'Met ARENA · Orléans

Rassemblement National ↗
DEBATE

Débat présidentiel LCI–Restos du Cœur — Quelle société pour demain ?

LCI / Les Restos du Cœur

LCI / TF1 Info ↗
OTHER

Présentation du projet de réforme des retraites de Marine Le Pen

Location not published

TF1 Info ↗

RECENT EVENTS

recent history
VISIT

Déplacement de Marine Le Pen consacré à la protection de l’enfance

Location not published

Radio TOTEM ↗
OTHER

Conférence de presse de Marine Le Pen sur le contre-budget et la trajectoire budgétaire

Siège du Rassemblement National · Paris

Marine 2027 ↗
DEBATE

Grand Oral Politique du Paris Builders Show

Paris Expo Porte de Versailles · Paris

Paris Builders Show ↗
OTHER

Discours de rentrée de Marine Le Pen à Hénin-Beaumont

L'Escapade · Hénin-Beaumont

Marine 2027 ↗