FRANCE 2027 SIGNAL LABSource-linked signals from the French presidential race.
—
daysbefore the first round
18 Apr 2027
Illustrated portrait of Bruno Retailleau
CANDIDATE DOSSIER

Bruno Retailleau

Descriptive summary of data published by France 2027 Signal Lab. No average · no forecast · no voting advice.
DECLARED CANDIDACYStatus verified as of 30 Jul 2026
POLLING DATA
5,5–11.5% · 4 hypotheses
Ipsos · fieldwork from 21 Oct 2026 to 22 Oct 2026
MEDIA PULSE
13.9%
share of election + campaign coverage, not a measure of support
ARTICLES
34
articles · 6 active days
PUBLISHERS
18
in the current 7-day window

NEWS

Latest source-linked articles, events and changes.

LATEST NEWS

5 articles

EVENTS

4 upcoming · 1 recent
OTHER

Bruno Retailleau au Vendée Business Club — « Entreprendre, gouverner, transmettre : quels défis pour la France ? »

VENDESPACE · Mouilleron-le-Captif

Vendée Business Club ↗
DEBATE

Débat présidentiel LCI–Restos du Cœur — Quelle société pour demain ?

LCI / Les Restos du Cœur

LCI / TF1 Info ↗
DEBATE

Grand Oral tourisme – Présidentielle 2027

Salon Berlioz — InterContinental Paris Le Grand · Paris

ADN Tourisme ↗
OTHER

Bruno Retailleau invité de « Face à Fogiel » sur RTL

RTL

RTL ↗

WHAT CHANGED

3 items
CAMPAIGN

Présidentielle 2027 : « Engager le sursaut national », François Fillon apporte son soutien à Bruno Retailleau

Valeurs actuelles ↗
CAMPAIGN

Les Républicains du Lot lancent le comité de soutien à Bruno Retailleau

actu.fr ↗

POLLS

Published scores by hypothesis. No average, smoothing or interpolation.

LATEST WAVE

5,5–11.5%4 hypotheses

Range of published scores for Bruno Retailleau across the hypotheses tested in the latest wave. France 2027 Signal Lab does not calculate an average.

Pollster
Ipsos
Sample
1,500
Fieldwork
21 Oct 2026 — 22 Oct 2026
View poll source ↗

FIRST-ROUND POLL HISTORY

Each mark represents a first-round poll observation grouped by pollster, fieldwork dates and sample size. A point shows the exact selected-hypothesis score when available. A vertical bar shows the published range across hypotheses. Horizontal position follows the fieldwork end date. No average, smoothing or interpolation.
56 observations

From 26 Mar 2025 to 22 Oct 2026. Enable JavaScript for the interactive visualization.

Published poll waves · 56
  1. Ipsos · 21–22 Oct 2026
  2. Harris · 19–21 Oct 2026
  3. Ifop · 17–19 Oct 2026
  4. Elabe · 14–16 Oct 2026
  5. Elabe · 14–16 Oct 2026
  6. Cluster17 · 14–15 Oct 2026
  7. YouGov · 12–15 Oct 2026
  8. OpinionWay · 13–14 Oct 2026
  9. Ifop · 12–14 Oct 2026
  10. Harris · 5–8 Oct 2026
  11. Odoxa · 24 Sep–7 Oct 2026
  12. Ifop · 25–29 Sep 2026
  13. Harris · 22–24 Sep 2026
  14. YouGov · 17–21 Sep 2026
  15. Cluster17 · 15–16 Sep 2026
  16. Ifop · 9–11 Sep 2026
  17. OpinionWay · 9–10 Sep 2026
  18. Harris · 8–10 Sep 2026
  19. OpinionWay · 8–9 Sep 2026
  20. Ipsos · 3–9 Sep 2026
  21. OpinionWay · 2–3 Sep 2026
  22. Ipsos · 31 Aug–2 Sep 2026
  23. Cluster17 · 31 Aug–1 Sep 2026
  24. Elabe · 26–28 Aug 2026
  25. Ifop · 24–25 Aug 2026
  26. Harris Interactive · 18–19 Aug 2026
  27. Cluster17 · 22–24 Jul 2026
  28. Elabe · 9–10 Jul 2026
  29. Verian · 8–10 Jul 2026
  30. OpinionWay · 8–9 Jul 2026
  31. Ifop · 7–8 Jul 2026
  32. Harris Interactive · 7–8 Jul 2026
  33. Harris Interactive · 7–8 Jul 2026
  34. Ifop · 22–24 Jun 2026
  35. OpinionWay · 10–11 Jun 2026
  36. Ipsos · 27–28 May 2026
  37. Ifop · 26–28 May 2026
  38. Harris Interactive · 25–27 May 2026
  39. Harris Interactive · 28–30 Apr 2026
  40. Harris Interactive · 22 Apr 2026
  41. Elabe · 25–27 Mar 2026
  42. Harris Interactive · 22 Mar 2026
  43. Ifop · 26–27 Feb 2026
  44. Elabe · 30–31 Oct 2025
  45. Elabe · 30–31 Oct 2025
  46. Harris Interactive · 7 Oct 2025
  47. Cluster17 · 30 Sep–1 Oct 2025
  48. Cluster17 · 30 Sep–1 Oct 2025
  49. Ifop · 24–25 Sep 2025
  50. Ifop · 19–20 May 2025
  51. Harris Interactive · 19 May 2025
  52. Ifop · 29–30 Apr 2025
  53. Odoxa · 23–24 Apr 2025
  54. Ifop/Hexagone · 11–18 Apr 2025
  55. Elabe · 2–4 Apr 2025
  56. Ifop · 26–27 Mar 2025

TESTED RUNOFFS

For each runoff, France 2027 Signal Lab shows at most the three most recent observations, ordered by fieldwork end date. Older observations remain in the source corpus. No average or interpolation is calculated.
1 opponent · 3 observations shown

Marine Le Pen

3 tests total
Ifop24 Aug 2026 — 25 Aug 2026
Sample: 1,598
42%58%
Source ↗
Cluster1722 Jul 2026 — 24 Jul 2026
Sample: 1,506
43%57%
Source ↗
Elabe9 Jul 2026 — 10 Jul 2026
Sample: 1,503
44%56%
Source ↗

MEDIA PULSE & COVERAGE

Visibility in monitored coverage: volume, publishers, composition and concentration.

MEDIA PULSE

Media Pulse measures the share of articles associated with Bruno Retailleau in the election and campaign scopes. It does not measure support, approval, sentiment or voting intention.
last 7 published days
13.9%SHARE OF ELECTION + CAMPAIGN COVERAGE

Share of articles associated with Bruno Retailleau in the election and campaign scopes.

34articles
18publishers
27story clusters
6active days

RECENT COVERAGE TREND

Daily share of election + campaign articles associated with Bruno Retailleau. The series covers 29 complete UTC days and does not measure support, approval, sentiment or voting intention.
29 complete days · UTC

Published history from 25 Sep 2026 to 23 Oct 2026.

COVERAGE STRUCTURE

SCOPE

ELECTION97.1%
33 articles
CAMPAIGN2.9%
1 article

MENTION PLACEMENT

In headline32
Summary only2

TOP PUBLISHER

BFMTV — Politique

TOP PUBLISHERS

10 publishers
  1. BFMTV — Politique7 articles · 20.6%
  2. Valeurs actuelles3 articles · 8.8%
  3. CNEWS2 articles · 5.9%
  4. Franceinfo Politique2 articles · 5.9%
  5. Le Dauphiné Libéré2 articles · 5.9%
  6. Le Parisien2 articles · 5.9%
  7. Le Progrès2 articles · 5.9%
  8. Midi Libre2 articles · 5.9%
  9. Public Sénat2 articles · 5.9%
  10. Sud Ouest2 articles · 5.9%

TOP STORY CLUSTERS

8 clusters
Présidentielle 2027 : peut-on déplacer le second tour, comme le demande Bruno Retailleau ?6 articles · 4 publishers
Sondage présidentielle 2027 : à droite, David Lisnard au coude à coude avec Bruno Retailleau2 articles · 2 publishers
Présidentielle 2027 : pourquoi Bruno Retailleau veut-il changer la date du scrutin ?2 articles · 2 publishers
"C'est une mauvaise date": Bruno Retailleau, candidat Les Républicains à la présidentielle, appelle à changer le jour du second tour de l'élection qui aura lieu le 2 May 20271 article · 1 publisher
"Surtout pas le 2 mai !" : Bruno Retailleau accuse Emmanuel Macron de vouloir "bordéliser" le second tour de la présidentielle1 article · 1 publisher
17 octobre: "Les propos du président de la République ont désarmé nos forces de l'ordre", estime Bruno Retailleau, candidat Les Républicains à la présidentielle1 article · 1 publisher
[Présidentielle 2027] Bruno Retailleau et David Lisnard en quête d’une « voie commune » avant la présidentielle1 article · 1 publisher
Bruno Retailleau demande au gouvernement de changer la date du second tour de la présidentielle1 article · 1 publisher

LATEST COVERAGE

12 articles

AGENDA & ISSUES

Topics associated with this candidacy in monitored coverage. They describe the composition of media coverage, not the monitored person's priorities or positions.

TOPIC PROFILE · 30D

8 associations · 30 days
  • Economy and public finances50.0%
    Economy and public financesProfile share: 50.0%Associations: 4Period: last 30 days
  • Work, purchasing power and pensions25.0%
    Work, purchasing power and pensionsProfile share: 25.0%Associations: 2Period: last 30 days
  • Institutions, democracy and territories25.0%
    Institutions, democracy and territoriesProfile share: 25.0%Associations: 2Period: last 30 days
  • Immigration, identity and secularism0.0%
    Immigration, identity and secularismProfile share: 0.0%Associations: 0Period: last 30 days
  • Security and justice0.0%
    Security and justiceProfile share: 0.0%Associations: 0Period: last 30 days
  • Health, education and public services0.0%
    Health, education and public servicesProfile share: 0.0%Associations: 0Period: last 30 days
  • Climate, energy and agriculture0.0%
    Climate, energy and agricultureProfile share: 0.0%Associations: 0Period: last 30 days
  • Europe, defence and foreign affairs0.0%
    Europe, defence and foreign affairsProfile share: 0.0%Associations: 0Period: last 30 days

TOPIC PROFILE · SINCE START

49 associations · 86 days · 2026-07-31 → 2026-10-24
  • Work, purchasing power and pensions40.8%
    Work, purchasing power and pensionsProfile share: 40.8%Associations: 20Period: since tracking began
  • Institutions, democracy and territories22.4%
    Institutions, democracy and territoriesProfile share: 22.4%Associations: 11Period: since tracking began
  • Climate, energy and agriculture12.2%
    Climate, energy and agricultureProfile share: 12.2%Associations: 6Period: since tracking began
  • Economy and public finances10.2%
    Economy and public financesProfile share: 10.2%Associations: 5Period: since tracking began
  • Immigration, identity and secularism10.2%
    Immigration, identity and secularismProfile share: 10.2%Associations: 5Period: since tracking began
  • Security and justice2.0%
    Security and justiceProfile share: 2.0%Associations: 1Period: since tracking began
  • Health, education and public services2.0%
    Health, education and public servicesProfile share: 2.0%Associations: 1Period: since tracking began
  • Europe, defence and foreign affairs0.0%
    Europe, defence and foreign affairsProfile share: 0.0%Associations: 0Period: since tracking began

TOPIC EVOLUTION

Daily counts of topic associations, with no average, smoothing or interpolation.
4 main topics

Daily series from 31 Jul 2026 to 24 Oct 2026.

SCRUTINY

Published reviews and the source confirming candidacy status.

CLAIMS UNDER SCRUTINY

3 reviews
BY — claim recorded as attributed to this candidacyABOUT — this candidacy is mentioned; the claim is attributed to another person
  1. BY

    La France investit-elle 27 % de plus que la moyenne européenne pour ses lycées

    Vrai

    TF1 InfoSource ↗
  2. BY

    La France est le "seul pays européen à voir le chômage augmenter"

    Faux

    TF1 InfoSource ↗
  3. BY

    Un couple avec deux enfants peut gagner 1,7 Smic sans travailler

    Trompeur

    AFP FactuelSource ↗

The number of published reviews does not measure a political figure's overall accuracy.

CANDIDACY STATUS

DECLARED CANDIDACY
Status confirmed

French conservative Bruno Retailleau to run for president in 2027

This source documents the candidacy status recorded by France 2027 Signal Lab.

Source
Reuters
Source date
12 Feb 2026
Status verified as of
30 Jul 2026
Open source ↗

PUBLIC ATTENTION

Pageviews of the French-language Wikipedia article. This signal does not measure support.

WIKIPEDIA PAGEVIEWS

Wikipedia pageviews measure visits to the article. They do not measure support, sentiment, approval or voting intention.
pageviews
46,186last 7 days
97,916last 28 days
10,6147-day peak
10,614period peak
Open Wikipedia article ↗

PAGEVIEW HISTORY

Daily pageviews of the French-language Wikipedia article. Repeat visits may be included.
90 days

PUBLIC SIGNALS

These indicators come from independent sources and do not measure the same thing. They are neither a popularity score nor voting intention.

Polymarket

Election winner, including any runoff. Prediction market — not voting intention and not an FR27 forecast. Third-party value, not calculated by FR27. Participants are not a representative sample of French voters. Liquidity and trading conditions may influence prices. FR27 does not combine this signal with polling, Wikipedia, media, agenda or other evidence into a synthetic score. Absence does not mean 0%. Change compares the current value with the latest valid observation at or before seven days earlier. Insufficient history produces no change or chart. Change in percentage points. Up to 30 days of actual time-spaced observations; missing UTC dates break the line, short runs use dots, the current value is ringed. Sparse coverage hides the chart, not the change. Vertical scale spans at least 5 percentage points. Each chart has its own scale: shapes cannot be compared across platforms.

FR27 observation : . Check freshness (48h)

Prediction market

0.9%

Implied probability

Polymarket ↗

YouTube

Reviewed personal/campaign channel established from first-party sources and pinned to a stable channel ID. Official-channel subscribers, not electoral support. YouTube rounds subscriber counts down to three significant figures. Uploads use video publication times within the seven days before observation, including both boundaries, only when the full playlist is verified. Incomplete activity does not provide an exact count. Change compares the current value with the latest valid observation at or before seven days earlier. Insufficient history produces no change or chart. Subscriber-count change inherits YouTube’s rounding. Up to 30 days of actual time-spaced observations; missing UTC dates break the line, short runs use dots, the current value is ringed. Sparse coverage hides the chart, not the change. Each chart has its own scale: shapes cannot be compared across platforms.

FR27 observation : . Check freshness (48h)

Channel audience

Official channel not established

Bluesky

Reviewed personal/campaign account established from first-party sources. The DID is the persistent identity; the handle may change. Official-account followers on Bluesky, not voters or a measure of support. Public-web visibility opt-outs are respected. Change compares the current value with the latest valid observation at or before seven days earlier. Insufficient history produces no change or chart. Change in Bluesky follower count. Up to 30 days of actual time-spaced observations; missing UTC dates break the line, short runs use dots, the current value is ringed. Sparse coverage hides the chart, not the change. Each chart has its own scale: shapes cannot be compared across platforms.

FR27 observation : . Check freshness (48h)

Account audience

Official account not established

EVENTS

Published campaign events associated with this candidacy.

UPCOMING EVENTS

as of 24 Oct 2026
OTHER

Bruno Retailleau au Vendée Business Club — « Entreprendre, gouverner, transmettre : quels défis pour la France ? »

VENDESPACE · Mouilleron-le-Captif

Vendée Business Club ↗
DEBATE

Débat présidentiel LCI–Restos du Cœur — Quelle société pour demain ?

LCI / Les Restos du Cœur

LCI / TF1 Info ↗
DEBATE

Grand Oral tourisme – Présidentielle 2027

Salon Berlioz — InterContinental Paris Le Grand · Paris

ADN Tourisme ↗

RECENT EVENTS

recent history
OTHER

Bruno Retailleau invité de « Face à Fogiel » sur RTL

RTL

RTL ↗
VISIT

Bruno Retailleau au Mondial de l’Automobile

Paris Expo Porte de Versailles · Paris

AFP via Boursorama ↗
OTHER

Assemblée politique du Parti populaire européen à Toulouse

Pierre Baudis Convention Centre · Toulouse

European People's Party ↗
OTHER

Réunion de crise à l’Élysée sur la situation internationale, la sécurité et l’énergie

Palais de l’Élysée · Paris

AFP ↗
OTHER

Rentrée des Jeunes Républicains 2026

Pavillon Baltard · Nogent-sur-Marne

Les Républicains ↗
VISIT

Bruno Retailleau à la Foire de Châlons-en-Champagne

Foire de Châlons-en-Champagne · Châlons-en-Champagne

L'Est Républicain ↗
DEBATE

Grand débat de la campagne présidentielle 2027 sur LCI

Court Philippe-Chatrier, Roland-Garros

TF1 Info ↗