FRANCE 2027 SIGNAL LABSource-linked signals from the French presidential race.
—
daysbefore the first round
18 Apr 2027
Illustrated portrait of Raphaël Glucksmann
CANDIDATE DOSSIER

Raphaël Glucksmann

Descriptive summary of data published by France 2027 Signal Lab. No average · no forecast · no voting advice.
PARTY-SELECTED CANDIDACYStatus verified as of 11 Oct 2026
POLLING DATA
13–15.5% · 4 hypotheses
Ipsos · fieldwork from 21 Oct 2026 to 22 Oct 2026
MEDIA PULSE
13.5%
share of election + campaign coverage, not a measure of support
ARTICLES
33
articles · 6 active days
PUBLISHERS
17
in the current 7-day window

NEWS

Latest source-linked articles, events and changes.

LATEST NEWS

5 articles

EVENTS

1 upcoming · 4 recent
DEBATE

Débat présidentiel LCI–Restos du Cœur — Quelle société pour demain ?

LCI / Les Restos du Cœur

LCI / TF1 Info ↗
RÉUNION PUBLIQUE

Rencontre avec Raphaël Glucksmann à Marseille

Marseille

Place publique ↗
OTHER

Rendez-vous télévisé de la primaire PS–Place publique sur BFMTV

BFMTV

Public Sénat ↗
RÉUNION PUBLIQUE

Grande réunion publique de Raphaël Glucksmann à Boulogne-Billancourt

Amphithéâtre de l’Espace Landowski · Boulogne-Billancourt

Place publique ↗

WHAT CHANGED

6 items
CAMPAIGN

Vidéos : Raphaël Glucksmann lance sa campagne à Amiens

Courrier picard ↗
CAMPAIGN

EXCLUSIF. Soutien à Raphaël Glucksmann, périscolaire, sécurité, PSG… Les réponses du maire de Paris, Emmanuel Grégoire

Ouest-France ↗
CAMPAIGN

Comment le soutien à Raphaël Glucksmann s'organise-t-il dans le Lot

actu.fr ↗
CAMPAIGN

Présidentielle. "Le seul vote utile à gauche" : les militants de Place publique 65 affichent leur soutien à Raphaël Glucksmann

La Dépêche du Midi ↗
CAMPAIGN

Présidentielle 2027 : Yannick Jadot accuse Marine Tondelier d’être « le trait d’union des partis de gauche » et soutient Raphaël Glucksmann

Le Parisien ↗
CAMPAIGN

"Si ça dérive vers le macronisme, ce sera sans moi": Ségolène Royal pose ses conditions à un soutien à Raphaël Glucksmann

BFMTV — Politique ↗

POLLS

Published scores by hypothesis. No average, smoothing or interpolation.

LATEST WAVE

13–15.5%4 hypotheses

Range of published scores for Raphaël Glucksmann across the hypotheses tested in the latest wave. France 2027 Signal Lab does not calculate an average.

Pollster
Ipsos
Sample
1,500
Fieldwork
21 Oct 2026 — 22 Oct 2026
View poll source ↗

FIRST-ROUND POLL HISTORY

Each mark represents a first-round poll observation grouped by pollster, fieldwork dates and sample size. A point shows the exact selected-hypothesis score when available. A vertical bar shows the published range across hypotheses. Horizontal position follows the fieldwork end date. No average, smoothing or interpolation.
61 observations

From 7 Jul 2024 to 22 Oct 2026. Enable JavaScript for the interactive visualization.

Published poll waves · 61
  1. Ipsos · 21–22 Oct 2026
  2. Harris · 19–21 Oct 2026
  3. Ifop · 17–19 Oct 2026
  4. Elabe · 14–16 Oct 2026
  5. Elabe · 14–16 Oct 2026
  6. Cluster17 · 14–15 Oct 2026
  7. YouGov · 12–15 Oct 2026
  8. OpinionWay · 13–14 Oct 2026
  9. Ifop · 12–14 Oct 2026
  10. Harris · 5–8 Oct 2026
  11. Odoxa · 24 Sep–7 Oct 2026
  12. Ifop · 25–29 Sep 2026
  13. Harris · 22–24 Sep 2026
  14. YouGov · 17–21 Sep 2026
  15. Cluster17 · 15–16 Sep 2026
  16. Ifop · 9–11 Sep 2026
  17. Harris · 8–10 Sep 2026
  18. OpinionWay · 8–9 Sep 2026
  19. Ipsos · 3–9 Sep 2026
  20. OpinionWay · 2–3 Sep 2026
  21. Ipsos · 31 Aug–2 Sep 2026
  22. Cluster17 · 31 Aug–1 Sep 2026
  23. Elabe · 26–28 Aug 2026
  24. Ifop · 24–25 Aug 2026
  25. Harris Interactive · 18–19 Aug 2026
  26. Cluster17 · 22–24 Jul 2026
  27. Elabe · 9–10 Jul 2026
  28. Verian · 8–10 Jul 2026
  29. OpinionWay · 8–9 Jul 2026
  30. Ifop · 7–8 Jul 2026
  31. Harris Interactive · 7–8 Jul 2026
  32. Harris Interactive · 7–8 Jul 2026
  33. Ifop · 22–24 Jun 2026
  34. OpinionWay · 10–11 Jun 2026
  35. Ipsos · 27–28 May 2026
  36. Ifop · 26–28 May 2026
  37. Harris Interactive · 25–27 May 2026
  38. Odoxa · 20–21 May 2026
  39. Harris Interactive · 28–30 Apr 2026
  40. Harris Interactive · 22 Apr 2026
  41. OpinionWay · 26–27 Mar 2026
  42. Elabe · 25–27 Mar 2026
  43. Odoxa · 25–26 Mar 2026
  44. Harris Interactive · 22 Mar 2026
  45. Ifop · 26–27 Feb 2026
  46. Ifop · 1–6 Feb 2026
  47. Odoxa · 19–20 Nov 2025
  48. Verian · 18–20 Nov 2025
  49. Elabe · 30–31 Oct 2025
  50. Elabe · 30–31 Oct 2025
  51. Harris Interactive · 7 Oct 2025
  52. Cluster17 · 30 Sep–1 Oct 2025
  53. Ifop · 24–25 Sep 2025
  54. Harris Interactive · 19 May 2025
  55. Ifop · 29–30 Apr 2025
  56. Odoxa · 23–24 Apr 2025
  57. Ifop/Hexagone · 11–18 Apr 2025
  58. Elabe · 2–4 Apr 2025
  59. Ifop · 26–27 Mar 2025
  60. OpinionWay · 11–12 Sep 2024
  61. Harris Interactive · 7–8 Jul 2024

TESTED RUNOFFS

For each runoff, France 2027 Signal Lab shows at most the three most recent observations, ordered by fieldwork end date. Older observations remain in the source corpus. No average or interpolation is calculated.
1 opponent · 3 observations shown

Marine Le Pen

11 tests total · 3 most recent shown
OpinionWay21 Oct 2026 — 22 Oct 2026
Sample: 973
44%56%
Source ↗
Harris19 Oct 2026 — 21 Oct 2026
Sample: 2,094
41%59%
Source ↗
Ifop17 Oct 2026 — 19 Oct 2026
Sample: 1,928
43%57%
Source ↗

MEDIA PULSE & COVERAGE

Visibility in monitored coverage: volume, publishers, composition and concentration.

MEDIA PULSE

Media Pulse measures the share of articles associated with Raphaël Glucksmann in the election and campaign scopes. It does not measure support, approval, sentiment or voting intention.
last 7 published days
13.5%SHARE OF ELECTION + CAMPAIGN COVERAGE

Share of articles associated with Raphaël Glucksmann in the election and campaign scopes.

33articles
17publishers
30story clusters
6active days

RECENT COVERAGE TREND

Daily share of election + campaign articles associated with Raphaël Glucksmann. The series covers 29 complete UTC days and does not measure support, approval, sentiment or voting intention.
29 complete days · UTC

Published history from 25 Sep 2026 to 23 Oct 2026.

COVERAGE STRUCTURE

SCOPE

ELECTION69.7%
23 articles
CAMPAIGN30.3%
10 articles

MENTION PLACEMENT

In headline32
Summary only1

TOP PUBLISHER

BFMTV — Politique

TOP PUBLISHERS

10 publishers
  1. BFMTV — Politique11 articles · 33.3%
  2. La Dépêche du Midi3 articles · 9.1%
  3. Courrier picard2 articles · 6.1%
  4. La Tribune2 articles · 6.1%
  5. Midi Libre2 articles · 6.1%
  6. Sud Ouest2 articles · 6.1%
  7. 20 Minutes1 article · 3.0%
  8. Contexte1 article · 3.0%
  9. Franceinfo Politique1 article · 3.0%
  10. L'Opinion1 article · 3.0%

TOP STORY CLUSTERS

8 clusters
Présidentielle 2027 : Édouard Philippe, Raphaël Glucksmann et Jean-Luc Mélenchon au coude à coude dans un nouveau sondage3 articles · 3 publishers
Présidentielle 2027. Le début de campagne de Raphaël Glucksmann percuté par la crise sociale2 articles · 2 publishers
"Je lui dis bon courage": les mots d'Édouard Philippe, candidat Horizons à la présidentielle, à l'adresse de Raphaël Glucksmann, vainqueur de la primaire sociale-démocrate1 article · 1 publisher
"Je vais affronter Marine Le Pen politiquement": Raphaël Glucksmann explique pourquoi il ne sera pas là à la mobilisation demain à Orléans contre le congrès du RN1 article · 1 publisher
A Raphaël Glucksmann de démontrer qu’il entend faire une place aux classes populaires1 article · 1 publisher
Après la désignation de Raphaël Glucksmann, quel avenir pour le PS ? « Il ne compte pas sur le parti, mais ses soutiens veulent règler leurs comptes1 article · 1 publisher
DÉCRYPTAGE. Présidentielle 2027 : Raphaël Glucksmann veut davantage rémunérer les stages, une mesure de lutte contre la précarité ou un danger pour le marché de l'emploi1 article · 1 publisher
Jean-Luc Mélenchon ou Raphaël Glucksmann: vers qui vont pencher les unitaires de gauche pour la présidentielle 2027?1 article · 1 publisher

LATEST COVERAGE

12 articles

AGENDA & ISSUES

Topics associated with this candidacy in monitored coverage. They describe the composition of media coverage, not the monitored person's priorities or positions.

TOPIC PROFILE · 30D

13 associations · 30 days
  • Europe, defence and foreign affairs30.8%
    Europe, defence and foreign affairsProfile share: 30.8%Associations: 4Period: last 30 days
  • Work, purchasing power and pensions23.1%
    Work, purchasing power and pensionsProfile share: 23.1%Associations: 3Period: last 30 days
  • Health, education and public services15.4%
    Health, education and public servicesProfile share: 15.4%Associations: 2Period: last 30 days
  • Institutions, democracy and territories15.4%
    Institutions, democracy and territoriesProfile share: 15.4%Associations: 2Period: last 30 days
  • Security and justice7.7%
    Security and justiceProfile share: 7.7%Associations: 1Period: last 30 days
  • Climate, energy and agriculture7.7%
    Climate, energy and agricultureProfile share: 7.7%Associations: 1Period: last 30 days
  • Economy and public finances0.0%
    Economy and public financesProfile share: 0.0%Associations: 0Period: last 30 days
  • Immigration, identity and secularism0.0%
    Immigration, identity and secularismProfile share: 0.0%Associations: 0Period: last 30 days

TOPIC PROFILE · SINCE START

63 associations · 86 days · 2026-07-31 → 2026-10-24
  • Europe, defence and foreign affairs30.2%
    Europe, defence and foreign affairsProfile share: 30.2%Associations: 19Period: since tracking began
  • Climate, energy and agriculture23.8%
    Climate, energy and agricultureProfile share: 23.8%Associations: 15Period: since tracking began
  • Work, purchasing power and pensions17.5%
    Work, purchasing power and pensionsProfile share: 17.5%Associations: 11Period: since tracking began
  • Economy and public finances9.5%
    Economy and public financesProfile share: 9.5%Associations: 6Period: since tracking began
  • Health, education and public services9.5%
    Health, education and public servicesProfile share: 9.5%Associations: 6Period: since tracking began
  • Institutions, democracy and territories7.9%
    Institutions, democracy and territoriesProfile share: 7.9%Associations: 5Period: since tracking began
  • Security and justice1.6%
    Security and justiceProfile share: 1.6%Associations: 1Period: since tracking began
  • Immigration, identity and secularism0.0%
    Immigration, identity and secularismProfile share: 0.0%Associations: 0Period: since tracking began

TOPIC EVOLUTION

Daily counts of topic associations, with no average, smoothing or interpolation.
4 main topics

Daily series from 31 Jul 2026 to 24 Oct 2026.

SCRUTINY

Published reviews and the source confirming candidacy status.

CLAIMS UNDER SCRUTINY

1 reviews
BY — claim recorded as attributed to this candidacyABOUT — this candidacy is mentioned; the claim is attributed to another person
  1. BY

    La France est le pays européen qui compte le plus d'élèves par classe en primaire

    Plutôt faux

    TF1 InfoSource ↗

The number of published reviews does not measure a political figure's overall accuracy.

CANDIDACY STATUS

PARTY-SELECTED CANDIDACY
Status confirmed

Primaire socialiste: vainqueur dès le 1er tour, Raphaël Glucksmann sera le candidat de la gauche sociale-démocrate à la présidentielle

This source documents the candidacy status recorded by France 2027 Signal Lab.

Source
LCP - Assemblée nationale
Source date
11 Oct 2026
Status verified as of
11 Oct 2026
Open source ↗

PUBLIC ATTENTION

Pageviews of the French-language Wikipedia article. This signal does not measure support.

WIKIPEDIA PAGEVIEWS

Wikipedia pageviews measure visits to the article. They do not measure support, sentiment, approval or voting intention.
pageviews
70,577last 7 days
574,461last 28 days
13,1567-day peak
167,351period peak
Open Wikipedia article ↗

PAGEVIEW HISTORY

Daily pageviews of the French-language Wikipedia article. Repeat visits may be included.
90 days

PUBLIC SIGNALS

These indicators come from independent sources and do not measure the same thing. They are neither a popularity score nor voting intention.

Polymarket

Election winner, including any runoff. Prediction market — not voting intention and not an FR27 forecast. Third-party value, not calculated by FR27. Participants are not a representative sample of French voters. Liquidity and trading conditions may influence prices. FR27 does not combine this signal with polling, Wikipedia, media, agenda or other evidence into a synthetic score. Absence does not mean 0%. Change compares the current value with the latest valid observation at or before seven days earlier. Insufficient history produces no change or chart. Change in percentage points. Up to 30 days of actual time-spaced observations; missing UTC dates break the line, short runs use dots, the current value is ringed. Sparse coverage hides the chart, not the change. Vertical scale spans at least 5 percentage points. Each chart has its own scale: shapes cannot be compared across platforms.

FR27 observation : . Check freshness (48h)

Prediction market

4.3%

Implied probability

Polymarket ↗

YouTube

Reviewed personal/campaign channel established from first-party sources and pinned to a stable channel ID. Official-channel subscribers, not electoral support. YouTube rounds subscriber counts down to three significant figures. Uploads use video publication times within the seven days before observation, including both boundaries, only when the full playlist is verified. Incomplete activity does not provide an exact count. Change compares the current value with the latest valid observation at or before seven days earlier. Insufficient history produces no change or chart. Subscriber-count change inherits YouTube’s rounding. Up to 30 days of actual time-spaced observations; missing UTC dates break the line, short runs use dots, the current value is ringed. Sparse coverage hides the chart, not the change. Each chart has its own scale: shapes cannot be compared across platforms.

FR27 observation : . Check freshness (48h)

Channel audience

Official channel not established

Bluesky

Reviewed personal/campaign account established from first-party sources. The DID is the persistent identity; the handle may change. Official-account followers on Bluesky, not voters or a measure of support. Public-web visibility opt-outs are respected. Change compares the current value with the latest valid observation at or before seven days earlier. Insufficient history produces no change or chart. Change in Bluesky follower count. Up to 30 days of actual time-spaced observations; missing UTC dates break the line, short runs use dots, the current value is ringed. Sparse coverage hides the chart, not the change. Each chart has its own scale: shapes cannot be compared across platforms.

FR27 observation : . Check freshness (48h)

Account audience

9,040

Followers

@raphaelglucksmann.bsky.social

Bluesky profile ↗

EVENTS

Published campaign events associated with this candidacy.

UPCOMING EVENTS

as of 24 Oct 2026
DEBATE

Débat présidentiel LCI–Restos du Cœur — Quelle société pour demain ?

LCI / Les Restos du Cœur

LCI / TF1 Info ↗

RECENT EVENTS

recent history
RÉUNION PUBLIQUE

Rencontre avec Raphaël Glucksmann à Marseille

Marseille

Place publique ↗
OTHER

Rendez-vous télévisé de la primaire PS–Place publique sur BFMTV

BFMTV

Public Sénat ↗
RÉUNION PUBLIQUE

Grande réunion publique de Raphaël Glucksmann à Boulogne-Billancourt

Amphithéâtre de l’Espace Landowski · Boulogne-Billancourt

Place publique ↗
DEBATE

Débat de la primaire « Choisir 2027 » sur France 2 et France Inter

France 2 et France Inter

Public Sénat ↗
DEBATE

« Le grand débat IA de la Présidentielle » à l'AIM Marseille

CEPAC Vélodrome · Marseille

NewsTélé ↗
DEBATE

« Face aux Français » avec les candidats à la primaire « Choisir 2027 » sur LCI

LCI

Public Sénat ↗